PTA Price Center Is Expected To Continue To Move Upward

At the end of May, PTA futures started to rebound. Although the process was relatively slow, it had risen from a low point of 4500 yuan / ton line to 4800 yuan / ton. I believe that in the late stage, driven by cost support and increased demand, the PTA price center is expected to continue to move upward.

At present, the PTA industry starts near 67%, lower than in previous years. Although the Hon Bang petrochemical plant will be restarted in the early July, Yisheng Dalian plans to stop maintenance for 15 days, and the operating rate will remain at a low level. In August, the maintenance of PTA plant will increase.

　　 Polyester industry The current operating rate is maintained at 80%, higher than the same period in previous years. Although the PTA and polyester enterprises around Hangzhou will be closed down during the G20 summit, there is still about two months from the G20 summit. Polyester factory The scheduling will focus on the next 7 to August to maintain the current higher operating rate, thereby increasing the demand for PTA.

On the one hand, at present, the consumption of crude oil in the UK is only 1 million 600 thousand barrels per day, accounting for 1.6% of the total consumption of the world. And with the dust settled, the market has accepted. Britain off Europe As a matter of fact, its impact on oil prices will also weaken.

On the other hand, the balance between supply and demand is faster than expected. Although oil prices have rebounded to around $50 a barrel, crude oil output has not increased significantly. Shale oil production in the United States is not as good as expected in the market. OPEC's main oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia have little spare capacity and Iran's oil output has reached a very high level.

At the same time, demand has increased rapidly. India can be regarded as a dark horse in this year's crude oil consumption market, with strong growth in crude oil imports, and is expected to become the third largest consumer of crude oil in the year. China's demand is still growing. First, the strategic oil reserve is still going on. Two, the import of crude oil in the teapot refinery is surging.

PTA upstream raw materials PX prices rebounded, from the end of May CFR China 780 U.S. dollars / ton rose to the current 822 U.S. dollars / ton nearby, PTA manufacturers processing fees have been reduced to a very low level, PTA prices and the end of April the highest 5212 yuan / ton price difference, at that time PX price in the vicinity of 825 U.S. dollars / ton. As PX prices continue to pick up, PTA prices follow the trend of PX.

In the UK, the European market is expected to see huge waves in the global financial market. The US dollar has risen to recover its lost territory, reaching a new high in 3 months, while the renminbi has fallen sharply, hitting a new low in the past 6 years. It is nearly 10% below the 2014 high point and has fallen into a downward path. As the US dollar rose, the yuan fell, and the cost of production at the later stage of PTA increased.

On the whole, the possibility of crude oil falling sharply in the late stage is low, and the cost support makes the PTA price drop little. With the increase of PTA maintenance and downstream demand, the PTA price is expected to maintain a slow upward trend.