Fixed Increase Breakage Shares Enjoy Higher Excess Returns After Lifting The Ban.

In the second half of the year, the market value of fixed share lifting has reached a record high. The market can not help worrying that more institutional investors will participate in the lifting of the fixed shares, which will bring more pressure to reduce. However, will the fixed share increase really fail after lifting the ban? By analyzing the rate of return before and after the lifting of the shares in the history, we find that the fixed share increase is easier to record excess earnings than the lifting of the embargo.

In the past three years, the scale of fixed financing increased by explosive growth. In the second half of this year, the scale of lifting the shares was slightly higher than the first half of the year.

Since the promulgation of the 06 year's "Regulations on the issuance of securities issued by listed companies", the scale has gradually increased dramatically. The 15 year is the "big year" that the listed companies have increased. The cumulative implementation has been increased by 827 times throughout the year, an increase of 74.8% over the same period in 2014 and a continuation of the 13 year high growth.

In the second half of this year, the market value of the lifting of the lifting of the ban will be 604 billion 380 million, slightly higher than the first half of the year. In the second half of this year, there will be large-scale lifting of shares and lifting of the ban.

In the second half of the year, 82.7% of the restricted sale period was 12 months, which means that most of the restricted shares were issued in a better market. Last year, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 17.2%.

It is difficult to get a stable excess return in the first three months after the lifting of the shares.

Since the promulgation of the "Regulations on the issuance of securities issued by listed companies" in May 06, the private placement has gradually become a popular financing mode. Especially in the past three years, the scale of private placement has been far beyond IPO and public issuance. The increase has become the main financing channel for listed companies.

In view of this, the sample is the 1593 fixed increase event from May to date 06 years ago. In order to eliminate the effect of market fluctuation on the fixed share price increase, this paper uses relative stock returns to indicate relative returns relative to the Shanghai Composite Index.

The average value of the relative gains in the three months before the lifting of the shares is 2.79%, but the median value of the relative gains is only -2.43%. From the median value, the excess earnings in the three months before the lifting of the ban are unstable. The market has brought about a reduction in the effect of the lifting of the shares. The priced in has a weak share price in the stock price before the lifting of the embargo.

Judging from the market situation, it is the best performance in the three months before the lifting of the stock market in the bull market.

The mean value of 5%, the worst in the bear market, the average relative income of -3.0%, the most stable performance in the market, the relative income of 3%.

This is derived from the fixed share issue, "the issuing price should not be lower than the 90% of the company's stock price in the 20 trading days before the price fixing date". The fixed share increase (restricted for at least 12 months) in the bull market generally has a lower base price, so the excess return of the fixed stock before the lifting of the ban is even more significant.

The excess earnings in the three months after the lifting of the fixed share is 5.1%.. The mean and median relative earnings of the fixed shares in the three months after the lifting of the ban are 5.06% and -0.16% respectively, and the excess earnings are more stable.

This is because the listed companies will sign the underwriting agreement privately at the time of the fixed increase. The main purpose is to increase the investors' stable income through major repurchase, mortgage guarantee, prepaid income and product setup. The investors who participate in the fixed increase will basically reduce their holdings within 3 months after the lifting of the fixed shares. At that time, the listed companies will release more favorable profits to match the increase in the investors' reduction behavior, so that the fixed shares will be more likely to get excess returns within 3 months after the lifting of the ban.

Judging from the market situation, it is the best performance in the three months after the lifting of the lifting of the shares in the bull market, the relative earnings mean is 11.6%, the performance is the second in the bear market, the relative earnings mean is 4%, the worst performance in the shock market, the relative earnings mean is 3.7%, but the earnings performance is more stable, the fixed stock increase in the 09 years from September to March 11 and 12 years February to 14 year June, 90 days interval relative gain is 2.25% and 5.09%. respectively.

The additional size of the fixed shares will enjoy a higher excess return after the lifting of the ban.

From the sample, we can see that the fixed stock increase in the number of shares / shares with a circulation value of more than 100% and less than 40% is relatively higher in the 3 months after the lifting of the ban. This is because the smaller the fixed scale is, the smaller the impact pressure on the reduction of stocks will be, and the share price will be more easily supported.

The larger the relative scale, the more financing purposes are capital operation or pformation of operation. The former helps to raise valuations, while the latter helps improve fundamentals and is conducive to boosting stock prices.

The purpose of financing is to enjoy higher excess returns after the lifting of the fixed shares of the merger and reorganization.

The purpose of the financing is shell resource reorganization (7.7%), financing and acquisition of other assets (6.7%), supporting financing (6.2% of the company's financing to investors during the M & A, and 6.2% of the actual controller's assets injection (5.3%)), and the relative return is higher within three months after the lifting of the ban. The purpose is to increase the relative earnings of the fixed shares of the project financing in the three months after the lifting of the ban.

Large shareholders do not participate in the subscription.

After the lifting of the ban, they enjoy a higher excess return.

Large shareholders do not participate in the subscription of the fixed share increase before the lifting of the relative income is higher, this is because large shareholders do not participate in the subscription of listed companies' financial quality is better. By comparing the annual earnings data of the lifting of the ban, we can see that the large shareholders' participation in the subscription and non participation of the listed company's asset liability ratio, basic EPS and net profit growth rate are 53.1%, 0.41, 7.4% and 44.7%, 0.44, 19.3%, respectively. Large shareholders do not participate in the subscription company's assets and liabilities ratio is lower, the basic EPS and the net profit growth rate are higher, and better fundamentals support their stock price strength.

Fixed increase breaking shares enjoy higher excess returns after lifting the ban.

In terms of relative returns, the relative gains of fixed increase breaking stocks in the 30, 60, and 90 days after the lifting of the ban are 2.6%, 5.1% and 7.3% respectively, which are better than the unbreakable shares. The farther away from the lifting of the ban, the larger the relative income gap between the two regions, and the higher the relative profit of the broken stocks is 4.6% than that of the unbreakable shares within 3 months after the lifting of the ban.

Judging from the relative positive rate of return, the fixed increase breaking share has a higher winning rate than the non break stock market in the 30, 60, and 90 days before the lifting of the ban. It is especially noteworthy that the winning rate of the fixed share breaking stock is higher than 50%, showing an increasing trend. This shows that the relative gains of the broken stocks after the lifting of the ban are higher and more stable.

After the lifting of the fixed share, the break stock is easier to get a higher relative profit than the unbreakable stock, which seems to be contrary to common sense.

In fact, the current increase has become a reality.

The main financing channels. If the investors who have subscribed to the subscription increase are finally paid off, the listed companies worry that this move will damage the reputation of the company. Future growth projects will not attract participants and affect the company's continuous financing capability.

Therefore, the company tends to increase the negative impact on the stock price caused by the break through the release of favorable hedging, including the huge profit distribution plan (for example, in December 13, when the Taihang hall has fixed up the lifting of the ban, the 14 year January, that is, the pre disclosure will be increased by 10 to 10), and the fundamentals are good. (such as the 13 year December national gold securities (600109) increased by the lifting of the ban, the 14 year February launched the Internet product), capital operation and so on.

In the second half of the year, there will be a number of excess return characteristics.

From the scale of fixed increase, the number of additional shares issued in the second half of 16 years is less than 40% and more than 100% of the number of issued shares in the second half of the year. From the sample, the number of shares issued after the lifting of the ban and the number of shares issued in circulation or less than 40% and those with greater than 100% share a higher relative return. ""

From the perspective of financing purposes, the purpose of financing in the second half of 16 years is to acquire additional assets, matching financing, shell resources reorganization and the actual control of assets injection. The percentage of the lifting shares is 68.8%.

From the view of whether the major shareholders participate in the subscription, the number of fixed shares increased by 78% in the second half of 2016 when the major shareholders did not participate in the subscription, the fixed shares increased by the large shareholders before and after the lifting of the ban were more likely to get relatively higher returns.