Lian Ping To Interpret Future Monetary Policy

How do we see the monetary and financial data released by the central bank in the first half of the year? Will monetary policy change in the second half? How can financial reform go further?

Lian Ping: as a whole, liquidity is ample and interest rates are dropping.

The financial data in the first half of this year are quite different from those in recent years. The outstanding feature is that the growth of RMB credit is fast, while non credit is shrinking sharply.

Considering the factors of local debt replacement, there are still more financial needs in the real economy.

In the first half of this year, RMB credit increased by nearly trillion yuan compared with the same period last year, while the entrusted loans increased by 1 trillion and 50 billion yuan over the same period, an increase of 514 billion 100 million yuan compared with the same period last year. The trust loan increased by 279 billion 200 million yuan, an increase of 248 billion 300 million yuan compared with the same period last year. The bank discount bill of non discounted banks decreased by 1 trillion and 280 billion yuan, with a decrease of 1 trillion and 310 billion yuan compared with the same period last year.

This has much to do with the strictness of supervision in recent years, but its reasonable growth is still insufficient, hoping to reproduce stable and rapid growth after the regulation.

As for the need for further reduction of interest rates, more consideration is needed.

The marginal positive effects are decreasing and the negative effects may be increasing.

The general interest rate cut has limited effect on stimulating economic growth, which not only has little effect on further reducing the cost of financing, but also delays the process of productivity, impede deleveraging, and is not conducive to the reform of supply side reform.

In the case of Britain's "off Europe" referendum leading to global market risk aversion and capital return to the United States, the interest rate cut will further increase the pressure of capital outflow and RMB depreciation.

Reporter: what has been achieved in the first half of the financial reform? What aspects do you think need to be strengthened in the second half?

Lian Ping: in the first half of the year, financial reform can be said to advance steadily.

Since August 11th last year, the exchange rate reform has been effective. Since the beginning of this year, the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has been obvious. Foreign exchange reserves have not changed much in the first half of this year, and the intervention in the foreign exchange market is also decreasing. This is a positive result of the reform.

At the same time, the opening of capital financial account has also made progress. Shanghai and Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Hong Kong are advancing, and overseas institutions have entered the interbank market to further open up.

Now, it is a good direction to open the market and make more capital inflow. It is also a good opportunity.

Lian Ping: at present, the internal and external economic and financial situation is complicated.

In the second half of this year, the downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large, and the difficulties and challenges facing steady growth are not small. At the same time, we should also take into account structural adjustment and risk prevention.

Monetary policy should pay equal attention to both structure and quantity. While maintaining a healthy and neutral nature and ensuring overall liquidity and overall prosperity, we should give full play to the important role of fiscal and investment policies in stabilizing growth and restructuring, and effectively adopt more targeted, more precise and differentiated regulatory measures.

At the same time, we need to maintain the basic stability of RMB against a basket of currencies.

At present, all kinds of uncertainties are intertwined and superimposed, and the risk in China's financial sector has increased significantly.

The RMB exchange rate is an important symbol of the value of RMB assets. Once a large fluctuation occurs, it will not only be harmful to the stability of China's economic and financial system, but also lead to global financial market turbulence.

In the current context, maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level is very important.

Under the current circumstances, the RMB exchange rate can fluctuate correspondingly with supply and demand, easing the current downward pressure on the economy.

In the second half of this year, we should actively and steadily push forward relevant financial reform.

Rational and prudent promotion of capital and financial account liberalization.

We should carefully grasp the conditions and timing. In the current domestic economic downturn, capital outflow and devaluation of the RMB pressure, the international financial market uncertainty factors, such as individual foreign direct investment, real estate investment and securities investment and other sensitive areas should be carefully promoted.

While raising the openness of capital and financial accounts, it is recommended to study the feasibility of using new tools such as Tobin tax, interest free deposit reserve and foreign exchange paction fees as soon as possible, and do well in the management of cross-border capital flows under open conditions.

On the basis of the RMB exchange rate mechanism that has initially formed "closing exchange rate + exchange rate of a basket of currencies", it is suggested that the exchange rate fluctuation should be further expanded and the exchange rate flexibility should be enhanced.