Central Bank To Save Water To Save The Economy Become Deformity Can Be Followed By Hong Kong Stocks Robust Plate

Last week, the England bank did not cut interest rates after its first meeting after the referendum, and did not buy the debt in real time, which surprised the market. However, the British stock market did not fall sharply. The pound's exchange rate rebounded to 1.3475 below the knee response to 1.32.

President Carney's "constant change" seems to reflect the global central bank's question whether monetary policy is still effective in promoting the economy. There is doubt that the long term is a good thing.

This article has certain reference significance.

The financial tsunami has been going on for nearly 8 years.

Staggering, because before the financial tsunami, the advanced countries all over the world are already heavily indebted to implement the tight fiscal policy. Therefore, they can only rely on the central bank to release water to save the economy, forming a deformity phenomenon, that is, whether the financial market or the real economy, the central bank action is concentrated on the reaction.

For example, since the beginning of 2014, the strong dollar has led to the collapse of oil prices, the sharp decline in oil companies' income and the almost complete stagnation of capital investment. In February this year, oil prices rebounded after bottoming out, in addition to supply and demand regulation, and because G20 opposed currency devaluation and the Fed's pigeons.

If oil companies want to reinvest capital investment, the dollar will not have another wave of surge, so the Federal Reserve can not raise interest rates too fast.

The central bank has a deeper influence and even changes the traditional investment model. In the past, there is a reverse relationship between stock and debt prices, but the relationship has been disintegrated since the central bank has bought a wide range of debt.

When the S & P 500 index hit a new high last week, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bonds was less than 0.1% from the historical low, and the US stocks and debts reached a record high.

The traditional investment pattern is that investors buy bonds to earn stable interest, buy stocks and expect stock prices to rise to get capital returns; now the market is investors buying bonds, expecting capital appreciation to get returns, buying stocks to earn stability.

。

Last week, the amount of negative interest rates of national debt was up to 13 trillion US dollars. Last Wednesday, Germany issued 10 year bonds. The average winning rate was 0.05%.

I believe that this trend has made the bond market bubble, and be careful.

Honda Etsuro, the main adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, said last week that in an hour long discussion with Bernanke in April, Bernanke had suggested that Japan issue a sustainable debt to the central bank by means of "helicopter spilling money" to overcome deflation.

Due to the meeting with Andouble on Tuesday, Mr Bernanke led the market to speculate that Japan would print more money, and the yen fell further to the 106.3 level against the dollar.

I have estimated that the Bank of Japan will strongly prevent the Japanese yen from rising by 100, and then it will rise sharply. Even now that Bei Lao has moved out, we can see that its determination is not small.

Last Friday, the S & P 500 index rose 5.9% this year, and the index of public stock classification increased by 19.5%. However, the index of public stock classification has dropped from a high level when the index has reached a new high. It is 2.2% lower than the previous week's historical highs.

In January, when the US 10 year treasury bond yield fell from 2.3% to 1.7%, the S & P 500 index fell 11.3%, while the public sector index rose 6.8%.

From June to the beginning of July, the market prepared for the pition from the British referendum and the referendum results were determined to be out of Europe, the US debt yield fell by 0.5% to 1.35%, the S & P 500 index was basically flat, but the public stock index increased 8.2% to a historical high.