Are There Any Conditions For Speculation In Cotton?

In 2016, China's cotton supply side came out of addition to the reserve cotton wheel, and the weather became another focus of speculation. Especially when the main cotton producing areas encountered meteorological disasters, people habitually asked the local cotton production whether they were affected at the first time.

In late July, are there any conditions for speculation of cotton? How much more can it help the market?

In the 6-7 month of this year, the weather in China is really "giving strength". In the past years, the southern flood and drought in North China seems to have changed this year.

Yangtze River Basin,

At the same time, it is rare to encounter rare rainstorms, which will have adverse effects on local crops. As to how large the impact is, there will be great differences in time, area, topography, planting crops and water conservancy facilities.

It is true that some of the main cotton producing areas have been severely affected, and even the cotton plants have been flooded. Of course, some of them have survived.

If the output of cotton will be greatly affected or even faced with a local harvest, the loss of output will not be enough if we look at the whole country or compare with the previous years.

For example, in recent days, heavy rainfall has occurred in many places in Henan, and cotton production will naturally be affected, even if all crops fail. (Henan province)

Production is estimated at 62 thousand tons, and will not have much impact on the cotton production situation in China.

With Xinjiang becoming the main position of domestic cotton production, its output is very important. The weather that naturally affects production is very important.

In fact, judging from the current situation, Xinjiang's meteorological conditions for cotton production this year are better than in previous years. Even in 5-6 months, it encountered severe weather.

Without contrast, there is no advantage or disadvantage.

Because of the special geographical and climatic environment, it can be said that crops will encounter severe weather, such as gale, rain, cooling, hail, high temperature and so on every year.

Local cotton farmers are also psychologically prepared for the weather.

It is only hoped that people should not exaggerate the role of the weather, nor look down on the cotton farmers' resilience and the stubborn vitality of crops.

Can the weather become a hot topic again? I think the key is to see the degree of speculation. Once the false proposition is overhyped, the result is likely to confuse the public with the false and true, and affect the trend of the market. This is particularly evident in futures, especially the news about bad weather in Xinjiang, which is likely to cause oscillations on the disk.