Cotton Price Ups And Downs In The End Is Who Counts?

In the past 3 months

The price is almost straight up, breaking through the expected price of people. Although there have been several brief pullbacks, the upward trend has not been reversed.

Following the rhythm of Zheng cotton, the price of commodity cotton and cotton reserves kept rising.

This week (July 18-21) the reserve price of the reserve cotton reached 13609 yuan / ton, which was 556 yuan / ton higher than the previous week.

Cotton has been so rare in recent years. Who will do it? Who will decide the future cotton price trend?

Turning over salted fish to describe the performance of cotton this year is more pertinent.

Cotton prices continued to weaken at the beginning of 2016, and Zheng cotton once fell below 10000 yuan / ton mark, when the market pessimism spread uniformly, and cotton became a hot potato for a while. Who could have expected it to sounded the bugle of rising in April.

Affected by the spot market in April, Zheng cotton has also started a Crazy Rhythm, from 9500 yuan / ton to the current 15800 yuan / ton, and the long one has made a lot of money.

Now the analysis is downstream.

The demand has improved and the sales of cotton have been stimulated. Cotton prices have plummeted and are basically in line with international prices. The downstream textile enterprises are facing a rare opportunity for development. They not only have high profits, but also have high speed.

Relevant data show that 3-5 months in China

The volume of futures yarn in Southeast Asia (India, Pakistan, etc.), East Asia (South Korea, China Taiwan) and Central Asia (Uzbekistan) has dropped sharply.

It can be seen that the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is very important for downstream textile enterprises to carry goods.

At present, with the domestic cotton prices rose sharply (and its speed is faster than cotton), the profits of downstream textile enterprises have gradually declined, and the price advantage of imported yarn has begun to appear.

In addition to the appeal factors, the industry agreed that the policy of reserve cotton rotation is the core element that determines the future cotton price trend.

As of July 15th, the accumulative total of 1 million 359 thousand and 700 tons of cotton reserves was planned for 2015/2016, and 1 million 333 thousand and 100 tons of accumulated warehouses were sold, with a turnover rate of 98.05%.

Although the daily storage capacity of reserve cotton is less than 30 thousand tons, according to this progress, we can successfully achieve the 2 million ton round out plan at the beginning of this year.

It is reported that more than 50% of cotton reserves were successfully auctions by traders, indicating that the market has little effective supply.

At present, the market business inventory is extremely limited. If reserve cotton can increase the effective supply, it will play a very important role in restraining the rise of cotton price.

The industry has made it clear that the intensity of policy adjustment and adjustment determines the market trend in the future.

As for whether the policy will change in the future, we will wait and see.