Qiao Yongyuan: Stock Market Active Capital Begins To Show Outflow Trend

Market activity observation: activity high callback.

Last week, the two cities rebounded slightly, activity continued to improve, turnover and turnover rate once again hit a new high in the middle of the week, but in the late stage of weakness, the high callback was only slightly higher than the previous Friday.

Margin trading, margin and ratio of margin trading fell sharply, hitting a high return after a recent high.

Market activity showed a weak position in a high position.

In the next 3 months, we believe that

Will be higher than the current level: 6 month domestic economic weakness and inflation to ease the release of loose monetary policy space, the market from the entity and financial double leveraged resonance caused by the correction of correction, the United Kingdom and the fed to raise interest rates risk basically released, liquidity level is expected to rise significantly.

Capital flow observation: capital is in shock again.

Last week, the reduction of industrial capital came back again and returned to the high level of 10 billion yuan. We judged that the market will continue to face a sell-off in a certain period of time after the initial solution has reached a high level recently.

The trading settlement fund in the stock market declined slightly last week, with a net outflow of 20 billion 600 million yuan, and investors' cautious sentiment began to bring net capital outflow.

Last week, Hong Kong and Hong Kong accumulated small amount of capital into the north to invest 851 million yuan.

Foreign capital continued to return to A shares in the first two days, but then showed a renewed caution in the market.

Investor observation: investor sentiment is progressive.

New natural persons were added last week.

Although the number has picked up slightly, the proportion of natural persons holding positions continues to decline, while the balance treasure sentiment index continues to decline.

The fund can rise in cash, especially in the stock market, rising by 16.6%.

The vote decreased by 0.98 percentage points to 86.62%.

The share of the new fund was 2 billion 238 million last week, although it rose by 550 million slightly compared with the previous period, but it is still at a low level.

The willingness of individual investors and institutional investors to enter the market is not strong, and the willingness to reduce in the stock market will increase.

Bond market view: the drop in expectation is expected to fail, and bond market is narrow.

Risky assets rose, bond markets narrowed, and ultra long interest rate debt yields fell.

Last week, the riskier assets rose as a whole, and the bond market suffered a narrow shock from the risk preference. Last week, MLF expired more than 300 billion. However, the central bank continued to extend its renewals and eliminated the expected market downturn. On June, the important economic and financial data in June and the two quarter were announced.

Treasury bond futures fell slightly, and IRS interest rates varied.

Future liquidity forecast: in the next 1 months, we believe that the market will face liquidity shocks in the high position consumption game and maintain a lower level of liquidity than the previous week. Taking into account the scissors gap between M2 and M1 data in June, the scissors gap continues to widen and there is a "liquidity trap". The central bank's stance basically negates short-term easing, which may superimpose Europe's subsequent risk and exchange rate pressure, frequent incidents of default, tighter financial supervision, deepening of double deleveraging, and reduction of industrial capital to a high level, and liquidity will soon be under pressure.