State Cotton Store Spanaction Price Accelerates Uplink Textile Enterprises Inventory Shortage

Since mid June, the price of rap has been rising rapidly, and the cost of cotton production has greatly increased. At present, textile enterprises exert pressure on policy makers through relevant industry organizations, while government departments are also fully considering the legitimate interests demands of the industrial chain. It is expected that the policies promulgated after the market will have a negative effect on cotton prices. This year's reserve cotton auction has been quite popular. As of July 27th, the total planned output of 1 million 593 thousand and 600 tons was up to 1 million 567 thousand and 100 tons, with a turnover rate of 98.34%. It is worth mentioning that since June 28th, the national cotton auction has been traded for 100% consecutive 20 trading days. Average spanaction price It also went all the way, rising from 12527 yuan per ton in June 27th to 15104 yuan per ton, or more than 2500 yuan / ton. Although the rise in the price of storage has a factor in the uplink of global cotton prices, the lack of sufficient reserves is the main reason.

Before the end of June, cotton (14940, -375.00, -2.45%) rose rapidly, but the price of yarn did not go up synchronously. Therefore, the profits of textile enterprises dropped significantly, or even lost money. In recent years, both domestic and international yarns have seen a substantial increase, which basically can offset the rising cost of cotton prices. Meanwhile, the grey cloth mill is also slowly raising the price to offset the effect of cost increase. However, the downstream orders have shrunk. In June, yarn production dropped slightly by 4.21% compared to the same period last year, and the ratio fell by 2.11%, of which pure cotton yarn accounted for 71.85%, and the ring ratio decreased by 1.88%.

Therefore, in the current situation, textile enterprises face greater operational risks. First of all, as cotton prices rise too fast, enterprises dare not boldly purchase raw materials, thus unable to arrange production and receive orders according to their own capacity. Secondly, because the price difference between cotton and its substitute polyester and viscose fiber is enlarged obviously, the proportion of pure cotton products will drop. Finally, because of the tight supply of cotton spot market this year, many textile enterprises do not have enough cotton stocks. If the dumping is stopped at the end of August and the new cotton market will be available in large quantities in November, the mainland textile enterprises will probably have no rice pots.

It is understood that Textile enterprises Feedback from various channels to relevant ministries and commissions mainly includes the following points: it is recommended to suspend the production of non textile production enterprises; it is recommended to continue to put in reserve cotton in 9 to October, or to normalize the storage, ease the problem of cotton use, clarify the policy as soon as possible, mobilize all parties' strength, increase the daily turnover to 50 thousand tons, and appeal to the state to increase the quota of cotton imports so as to stabilize the market price. If we continue to throw reserves in September or October, the supply of cotton spot market will be eased. Investors' expectations of cotton supply in 9 to October will also change, and market sentiment will cool down.

The author believes that the above recommendations will continue in 9 to October. Throw store The probability of implementation is relatively low. First of all, there are some bottlenecks in capacity raising and storage, which is difficult to solve. Secondly, although traders' participation in the market will lead to a sharp rise and fall in prices, their participation in storage will help to raise the turnover rate and provide liquidity. Finally, controlling the total amount of imported cotton is the necessary supporting policy for the reserve stock of the state reserve reserve. If it changes at will, it will be harmful to the stock reserve in the later period. However, there is no technical difficulty in throwing away the reserves from 9 to October. From the point of view of policy effects, it is also necessary under the background of tight cotton supply and heated market sentiment. Of course, some people worry that the 9 to October will continue to throw away stores, which will affect the acquisition of new cotton. However, the policy makers can flexibly arrange the pace of dumping and storage in view of prevailing market prices and supply and demand.