The Environment Of Downstream Textile Enterprises Is Improving.

The supply of cotton has obvious seasonality. On the one hand, China's cotton picking began in September, and the first 2 and 3 months of picking were also focused on the listing period, that is, a large number of new cotton concentrates before and after January. On the other hand, the progress of public inspection will also affect the supply of cotton. From the annual public inspection situation, the average progress of public inspection is 91.68% as of January, and 99.69% as May. It is believed that the volume of cotton inspection is mainly between September and January next year, and the supply of new cotton is also concentrated in this period. cotton The supply is the most abundant.

from Commercial inventory As a matter of fact, China's cotton usually has a peak from December to February of next year, and then with the decline of the public inspection volume and the continuous demand of the downstream, the commercial inventory after February has been decreasing, and the low level of business inventory has appeared at the end of the year.

Taking 2015/16 as an example, although the reserve supply increased the supply in the short run of the market, the market was still in tight supply because of the problem of outgoing inspection, and the commercial inventory in May was the lowest level in the past years (excluding the year of storage and withdrawal). Moreover, it is assumed that there will be no fundamental improvement in the outgoing inspection situation in the next 7 and August, which will strengthen the market's anticipation of the sluggish storage in the next year.

Before 2013, because of the domestic purchasing and storage policy, the cost of spinning cotton was high and the market competitiveness was lost. After that, with the change of policy and the anticipation of the market, the price of cotton fell, the cost of spinning enterprises decreased, and the profit margins recovered. But with the throw of storage this year, the price of cotton has risen sharply, and the textile enterprises have been cautious in purchasing cotton. Later, downstream textile enterprises difficult to cotton problem will affect the specific market?

Over the past year, cotton prices have seen a historical low. Spinning enterprise profit The overall situation is improving. But in June, the purchasing managers index (PMI) of China's cotton textile industry was 47%, down by 8.7 percentage points from the previous month, to 50% below the withered line, and in June, the five sub indexes of PMI showed a downward trend, mainly due to the low season of textile industry.

Generally speaking, the PMI of textile enterprises appeared low in July, and then rebounded. In the second half of the year, including the Mid Autumn Festival, the Spring Festival and other festivals, there will be a traditional peak season before the festival, especially in the early spring festival. This year, coupled with the fall in cotton prices, the cost of spinning enterprises has been reduced by cotton. The market which was originally occupied by imported yarns has been recovered by domestic yarn. In the traditional peak season of the second half of this year, the improvement of textile enterprises is better than that in the same period of history.

The profit of textile enterprises in recent years has been maintained at around 1000 yuan / ton, although profits will be reduced due to the rebound of cotton prices in the later stage (the use of cotton in production is delayed), but the price adjustment of textile enterprises in recent years is also very positive. Price transmission is more smooth than before, which will form positive feedback on the raw material market.

With the rise of international cotton prices, the price of imported yarn has also risen. Since the beginning of this year, the import yarn profits of 32S have disappeared. By the end of May, a total of 1 million 551 thousand and 300 tons of cotton yarn had been imported this year, with a total import volume of 1 million 707 thousand and 900 tons in the same period last year, down 9.17% from the same period last year. The decline of imported yarn has verified the recovery of competitiveness of China's domestic yarn market.

On the whole, the environment of downstream textile enterprises is improving. Among them, the inversion of the inside and outside spreads of cotton yarn and the recovery of profit make the replacement of domestic yarn to import yarn is expected to continue, and also the textile enterprises' ability to bear the price of raw materials has been improved. In addition, the downstream price transmission is obviously better than before, and the restrictions on the rise of cotton have shifted upward.