Cotton Textile Enterprises To Welcome The Good Cotton Reserves Will Be Extended For A Month.

The latest round of cotton futures accelerated up in June 17th, with a cumulative increase of 18.79% in the 29 trading days.

In fact, from the low level of 9645 yuan / ton in March 1st this year to the high of 16185 yuan / ton in July 18th, Zheng cotton 1701 contract has risen 61.07%.

In this regard, the industry said that from the supply and demand of the whole year, cotton spot supply is tight this year.

Although there are reserve cotton replenishment stocks, but because of the

The reasons for the slow pace of inspection and export and the participation of traders in auction are still not enough for the supply of cotton market.

With the continuous rise of cotton prices, the national reserve cotton sales base price is also rising.

According to the published data of China cotton reserves, 25 to 29 days (thirteenth weeks) in July, the reserve price of the reserve cotton rank was 14376 yuan / ton, up 767 yuan / ton than the previous week's selling price 13609 yuan / ton.

The sales price of the 12021 yuan / ton of the first week of the cotton reserve rose by nearly 20%.

One person

Insiders say that

The price is rising so fast that it will be hard for downstream textile enterprises to bear it.

However, recently, the relevant departments of the state reserve cotton have held a meeting to decide that the time for the rotation of the reserve cotton will be extended for one month, which is a welcome news for the cotton textile enterprises looking forward to the increase in the volume of the cotton.

Traders do not take their goods lightly.

Recently, due to lack of cotton, Hubei, Hunan, Shandong, Hebei, Zhejiang, Fujian,

Nearly 150 cotton textile enterprises in Guangdong and other places call the China Cotton Textile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the Sino Cotton Association) in the form of telephone and joint letter to the cotton textile association.

To this end, the China Cotton Trade Association organized a forum on cotton textile enterprises. At the meeting, relevant departments responsible persons said that for the storage of cotton, I believe that there will be some new initiatives in a short time.

Since the launch of cotton reserves in May 3rd, the rotation has entered the thirteenth week. From the present point of view, the contradiction between supply and demand in the cotton market seems to have not been alleviated, and cotton prices remain high.

According to the reporter, this year Zheng cotton 1701 contract rose by more than 60%, the global cotton spot price is rising.

Compared with last year's total turnover of 63 thousand tons of cotton reserves and a very small turnover rate, the main reason for this year's "hot cotton" turnover is not only the "rules", but also more importantly, there is a big gap in the market. There is a market where there is demand.

"International cotton production and prices continue to rise, domestic cotton is also facing a reduction in production, global cotton supply and demand gap, the market bullish expectations are strong, national cotton auction has become the main factor to regulate the current domestic cotton.

If the price of cotton continues to rise, it will drive domestic cotton prices up.

Lin Guofa, research director of agricultural products (000061, stock bar) collection network

However, with the continuous rise of cotton prices, there are also market participants revealed that the stock of the circulation side increased significantly, and some venture companies even used cotton inventory pledge to get cash to continue purchasing cotton, in order to get the bar gains from the rise in cotton prices.

The industry is worried that if such behavior is true, if the cotton price fluctuates violently, it will cause the traders to compete for shipment, leading to a sharp fall in cotton prices.

"The current sharp fluctuations in cotton prices will not lead to trampling shipments for hoarding traders for the time being. On the one hand, social inventories are not very large. According to the data of the previous cotton information network, the current social inventory is around 800 thousand tons.

Moreover, the actual cotton volume may also come to the end of 10.

So, 800 thousand tons of social inventory does not have much pressure.

Therefore, it is unlikely that cotton prices will fall sharply.

Hua Rui Information Analyst Li Zhenhua accepts

In addition, although the domestic cotton market is in short supply, cotton prices continue to rise slightly, but this change is not entirely formed by the role of the market, but more influenced by some man-made rules.

Among them, the amount of cotton reserves and the qualifications of the buyers have become the two major focuses.

Li Zhenhua pointed out.

According to an interview with reporters from the above textile enterprise insiders, the quantity of cotton reserves per day is basically between 20 thousand and 30 thousand tons, which is different from the requirements announced before and the real demand of textile enterprises.

Judging from the purchase situation, the volume of traders and textile cotton enterprises are equal in the amount of purchase, forming a competition. Compared with strong traders, textile entities are struggling to meet the cost of raw materials, operation and management, tax burden and so on.

From the actual situation, traders purchase large quantities of goods and sell in batches, to some extent alleviate the financial difficulties of some small and medium-sized enterprises, but objectively formed a situation that textile enterprises compete for resources, drive up prices and gain more profit margins.

At the same time, this has brought more pressure to the insufficient volume.

In addition, according to investigation and research, traders have already begun to buy goods in the domestic market before sitting on the reserve cotton, and wait for the benefit.

Reserve policy determines late price

According to the China Cotton Association, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply of cotton is insufficient, which leads to the lack of money, which causes cotton prices to rise.

It is understood that the price of Zhengzhou cotton in July 25th reached 15440 yuan / ton, nearly 5000 yuan higher than that in the beginning of April, and the national average price of cotton was 14927 yuan / ton, up 2967 yuan from the beginning of April.

Due to the rapid rise in the spot price of cotton futures, it is difficult to pmit to the downstream, causing damage to textile entities.

The above textile enterprises insiders say that the spot price of cotton has gone up too fast, which has led to a surge in all links and brought great financial pressure to the enterprises.

In addition, the supply of cotton can not meet the needs of the company or even the whole industry, which affects the normal production of the enterprise.

"We believe that management will not ignore the voice of entities, but even if we make decisions that meet the expectations of the grassroots, it will take some time.

As to whether or not to increase the intensity of throwing and storing cotton depends on the magnitude of the increase in cotton prices and the affordability of textile enterprises. If the cotton prices continue to rise in the late period, we will not rule out increasing the intensity of dumping and storage. After all, the number of remaining cotton reserves is about 10 million tons.

Ren Xinpu, vice president of Yongan Futures Research Institute, accepts

In addition, this year, the State restricted imports, and it was supposed to make up for the market demand by throwing and storing up the market. But for various reasons, it was postponed to May, that is, the two months of the time consumed the cotton in the spot market.

Since then, textile enterprises have been waiting for the arrival of cotton reserves, but they have met the new rules of public inspection.

According to the announcement issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance in April this year, the cotton reserve for rotation is organized by the China Fiber Inspection Bureau to conduct a comprehensive notarization test on the quality and weight.

It is understood that as the proportion of public inspection increased from 30% to 100% in the past, the volume of public inspection has not been up.

"For now, whether the volume can be extended or extended, the management attitude is very clear, increasing the daily reserves.

Inspection does exist in the ceiling, but it can be said that the public inspection has done a great deal. "

Li Zhenhua said.

In addition, for the industry's appeal, in the face of "going to stock" opportunity, I hope that the state can take full account of the actual situation, and postpone this reserve cotton sale until September or October, so as to solve the difficulty of spinning enterprises to use cotton.

In this regard, Li Zhenhua said that after the national cotton store has been inconsistent is actually another statement, can be interpreted as do not want the price to continue to fall too much at this price.

Insiders said that, according to the current demand situation, if there is no storage in August, there may be a two month window period. If the storage is extended, the window period can basically meet the market demand. But if it is not extended, the supply of cotton flowers in this empty window period will be very problematic. At the same time, the listing of new cotton will take some time.