PTA Futures Changed From 10 Years To The Industrial Vane.

In 4 months, the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange, PTA, will be 10 years old.

PTA is an important intermediate product in the petrochemical industry chain. Coca-Cola's bottles, people's

And all kinds of decoration materials are related to PTA.

That is to say, from China to Europe and the United States, no matter what.

Enterprises or bottle makers should pay close attention to the price of China's PTA futures and take PTA futures as a reference index for business decisions.

It is inseparable from the opposition and wait-and-see of enterprises.

The market is not smooth for 10 years.

Recently, reporters visited the production and trade enterprises in Xiamen, Hangzhou, Shanghai and other places to understand the pformation process of PTA futures.

Once was asked to "get off the shelf".

The emergence of PTA futures has changed the whole format.

As for the market, futures prices are obviously closer to market supply and demand as the trading price of the information gathered by all parties. Futures prices gradually become the core of market pricing, and become barometers reflecting market situation.

When it was launched in 2006, PTA futures price started from 8800 yuan / ton. After the concussion went up to 9884 yuan / ton in June 2008, it fell all the way to 4350 yuan / ton in November 2008, and then climbed to 4350 yuan / ton in the past two years and reached the highest point in history of 12417 yuan / ton.

After February 2011, under the background of the overall callback of commodities, PTA futures had experienced a decline of more than 5 years, with the lowest point reaching 4186 yuan / ton (August 2015).

Recently, PTA futures have been in the range of 4500 yuan / ton -5200 yuan / ton range.

The rise and fall of the PTA price trend reflects the trajectory of the PTA industry's capacity.

As an intermediate part of the PX (xylene) -PTA-PET (polyester) industry chain, in 2010 -2011, the PTA industry profits reached a high point in the past 20 years, which stimulated a new round of capacity expansion, and many companies have expanded the capacity of PTA.

During the next 2011 to 2015, China's PTA production reached its peak, and its capacity increased from 20 million 90 thousand tons to 46 million 930 thousand tons, an increase of 134%.

The surge in capacity has led to a 180 degree shift in attitudes towards PTA futures.

Now, more than 90% of the PTA production enterprises are involved in the futures market, and 85% of the trading enterprises whose trade volume is more than 1000 tons are involved in the futures market. The 70% polyester enterprises with annual production capacity of 100 thousand tons or more are involved in the futures market.

Previously, market prices were determined by industry giants, so the launch of PTA futures was not popular.

Some PTA production giants have also written a joint proposal. It is recommended that regulators adjust the PTA Futures Rules, optimize the relevant systems, and even call for the next PTA futures.

The companies participating in the book include Yisheng petrochemical, the first PTA factory in the universe.

Cao Mingji, deputy general manager of the marketing center of Zhejiang Yisheng Petrochemical Co., told reporters that before PTA futures were listed, the pricing of PTA in China was dominated by several big PTA manufacturers. The PTA factory announced the settlement price of contract goods at the end of the month according to the spot trading situation, and then announced the contract price for the next month.

The downstream consumer enterprises are first paid in accordance with the listed price, and the end of the month is settled in accordance with the settlement price of the contract.

After PTA futures, the original pricing mechanism was hit.

As for the market, futures prices are obviously closer to market supply and demand as the trading price of the information gathered by all parties. Futures prices gradually become the core of market pricing, and become barometers reflecting market situation.

Cao Mingji said that under this mechanism, futures prices affect the domestic spot price, and then affect the market price of the imported goods; the production enterprises decide the contract price and settlement price according to the spot price, and then affect the contract price and settlement price of the importer; futures prices affect the price of raw material PX spot market, and then affect the purchasing intention of the production enterprises; futures price changes affect the raw material purchase and product sales intention and progress of polyester enterprises; futures prices affect the mentality of polyester traders, and then change the purchasing intention.

In Xiamen Xiangyu Chemical General Manager Assistant Huang Yanfang seems that PTA futures changed the entire format, the market has become more pparent and full, so the whole industry chain upstream and downstream enterprises have found a win-win mode, we all can not do without PTA futures.

Enterprises are not afraid of big warehouse receipts.

Large warehouse receipt is actually a process of stock dominance, and makes market information more open and pparent.

For traders who rely on fundamental research, they can track research more timely and accurately, helping enterprises to play games at a new level.

Investors in the futures market know that in addition to paying attention to prices, they should also pay attention to standard warehouse receipts.

Because warehouse receipts often represent inventory.

The so-called standard warehouse receipt refers to the standardized delivery certificate issued by the exchange and recognized by the exchange.

In the physical delivery process, the seller and the buyer do not directly engage in the collection of physical commodities, but instead collect the standard warehouse receipts representing the ownership of goods.

Recently, a big market hot spot for PTA futures is "big warehouse receipts".

According to Zheng Shang's data, as of August 3rd, the number of PTA futures warehouses was 160553, which was 2501 fewer than that of the previous trading day.

A warehouse receipt corresponds to 5 tons of PTA, which means more than 800 thousand tons of PTA stock is lying in the delivery shop of Zheng Shang.

In the early July, the number of PTA warehouse receipts was more than 18000, and the spot volume approached 1 million tons.

Insiders told reporters that with the arrival of the delivery month, the existing huge warehouse receipts will be canceled in mid September, when there will be about 800000 tons of PTA spot will enter the market.

This will cause great pressure to the market which is still in the supply market.

"For PTA bulls, it will be faced with the problem of receiving goods."

Zou Jinlong, founder of the Ministry of chemical industry, said that the PTA plant should consider its own capacity for taking delivery of goods. Traders should take account of the basis. The polyester factories at the end of consumption should consider the sales volume of finished products.

In Zou Jinlong's view, now the downstream market is good, downstream factories have the mentality of receiving goods, but the market base is not big enough, which will affect the behavior of traders receiving goods.

However, to the reporter's accident, in the investigation, no matter the production enterprise or the trader, to the upcoming "big delivery" has shown extraordinary calm.

Xie Haisu, deputy general manager of the Trade Department of Xiamen China World Trade Center group, told reporters that the amount of PTA warehouse receipts has passed several signals to the market: first, it explains the overcapacity of the market; secondly, it reflects that the PTA futures function has played an active role in the market, and everyone is willing to register the warehouse receipt, so that the stock will become dominant.

The dominance of social inventories has brought convenience to the production and operation decisions of the upper and middle reaches, and the efficiency of inventory realisation and procurement has been enhanced.

Huang Yanfang, assistant general manager of Xiangyu shares, also believes that the large amount of warehouse receipts in PTA futures indicates that the PTA market is gradually maturing, and the recognition and participation of futures in the upstream and downstream of the industry chain is constantly improving.

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In the eyes of these people, PTA warehouse receipts benefit from the futures rules.

According to the introduction, PTA futures use general warehouse receipts, that is, the buyer can get the warehouse receipt as if he has the bank passbook.

With the convenience of warehouse receipt being fully excavated by enterprises, the registration volume of PTA futures warehouse receipts increases year by year.

Among them, the warehouse receipts in 2014 reached a maximum of 400 thousand tons, up to 800 thousand tons in 2015.

"PTA futures warehouse receipts bring benefits to the industry including reducing inventory holding costs, making it easier for production companies to pick up goods nearby, save time and logistics costs, and industrial inventory dominance helps both suppliers and buyers find prices."

Huang Yanfang said.

Sun Tao, deputy general manager of Shanghai Shen Qi Industrial Co., Ltd., a trader, thinks that PTA's large warehouse receipt is actually a manifestation of market behavior, a process of stock dominance, and a more open and pparent market information.

For traders who rely on fundamental research, they can track information in a more timely and accurate way, helping enterprises to play games at a new level.

Help PTA market to capacity

PTA futures have become a good helper for traders to explore and upgrade supply chain management.

It can help the upstream and downstream enterprises to speed up the withdrawal of capital and reduce the cost of capital, and also provide convenience for the upstream and downstream enterprises to buy and sell in large quantities in a short time, and lock in production profits in time.

In the coal, steel and other industries to accelerate production capacity, the PTA market is also suffering from overcapacity.

Wu Zhong, deputy manager of Yisheng Petrochemical Research Center, said that the monthly PTA capacity of the country is 2 million 800 thousand tons, of which Yisheng petrochemical industry accounts for more than 1/3 of the total capacity of the country, reaching 1 million 100 thousand tons.

Because the highest operating rate of the downstream polyester plant can only reach 85%, the whole PTA industry is in a situation of oversupply.

Public information shows that Yisheng petrochemical, Hengli petrochemical and Xiang Lu Petrochemical are the top three PTA producers in China.

In 2015, Yisheng petrochemical production capacity reached 1350 tons, Hengli and Xiang Lu were 660 tons and 615 tons respectively.

But this pattern is changing.

One industry told reporters that by the early April 2015 Gure PX device explosion, Xiang Lu Petrochemical 4 million 500 thousand tons of PTA plant has been shut down so far, it is located in Haicang's 1 million 650 thousand ton PTA device has been parking.

In fact, since last year, the clearance rate of domestic PTA backward production capacity has obviously accelerated, and the industry shuffle is inevitable.

Cao Mingji, deputy general manager of Zhejiang Yisheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd., told reporters that the oversupply of PTA market will exist for a long time. The PTA processing fee will be maintained at about 300 yuan per ton in the future.

But Yisheng Petrochemical is not worried.

"We originally had the advantage of high capacity concentration, low material consumption and low energy consumption. With the PTA futures hedging function, we could basically respond effectively.

Eliminating backward production capacity is more beneficial to us. "

Cao Mingji said.

For trading enterprises, PTA futures have also become a good helper for their exploration and upgrading of supply chain management.

Chen Luwen, assistant general manager of Xiamen Xiangyu logistics commodity derivatives division, told reporters that in supply chain management, futures provided risk hedging tools for enterprises, helping upstream and downstream enterprises to optimize inventory structure and reasonably arrange production plans.

At the same time, the futures market makes the goods have financial attributes. On the basis of controllable cargo rights, through the purchase and sale of warehouse receipts and warehouse pledge, the mode helps enterprises to reduce the capital cost of current positions.

"Taking warehouse receipt repurchase as an example, on the one hand, PTA futures can help upstream and downstream enterprises to speed up capital withdrawal and reduce capital costs; on the other hand, it can provide convenience for large and downstream businesses to buy and sell in a short period of time, and timely lock production profits."

Chen Luwen said.

Xie Haili, deputy general manager of the Trade Department of Xiamen China World Trade Center group, also said that supply chain management is a big concept. The most prominent function of price management corresponding to futures is hedging and price discovery.

When the forward price is right, the production enterprise carries on the price management through the trader's forward spot purchase and sale, and the trader carries on the hedging to realize the producer's price discovery.

Traders have ample funds to take inventory and margin, and manufacturers focus on the control of processing fees, which is a win-win situation for both sides.