The Inchworm Effect Of "Ups And Downs" Is Fading.

At present, with the US stock returning to the bull market, the 4 edition of the A stock market crash has not been staged in the A stock market, but the regulatory storm is evolving to the 5 edition or even the N.0 version.

Under the double pressure of selective regulation and deleveraging to the excessive supervision of long hand overhang, the bear market was artificially extended, and the "ups and downs were all bitter".

Fade away.

Further, the stock market deleveraging launched in June last year has been upgraded to a full containment of banks and insurance market funds.

The stock market supervision is strictly against death, that is, to guard against the stock market bubble again, to catch up and chase off all kinds of stocks speculation, and to keep the bottom line of the IPO expansion, and the new issue will enter the flood discharge period.

Over the past month, global stock markets have rebounded, and the S & P 500 index has hit a new high this week.

In contrast, the long-awaited "eating quotes" of A share have been aborted, and the Shanghai Composite Index has not yet gone out of the 3000 points of the chip concentration area.

Compared with 2007, China's current GDP and credit aggregates have increased more than twice.

Why can the past ten years in the past, A shares are still low in the doldrums, while the first tier cities north of Guangzhou Shenzhen housing prices and GDP growth is the same direction, continue to beef up.

The same is the policy led market, the property market regulation is "ten adjustments and nine vacant", and the stock market regulation is "one control is dead"? The fundamental reason is that the property market regulation has absorbed the lessons of the 1994 property market bubble burst.

In those days, the highest price of housing in Hainan dropped to 90%, resulting in large banks' bad debts.

Since then, the target of property market regulation is to keep house prices stable and see the rise, to cool fast cattle instead of slaughtering them, so as not to trigger the hard landing of the economy and the burst of the property market bubble.

In contrast, the main keynote of stock market regulation is to maintain the rapid growth of the scale of equity financing, rather than the steady rise of stock index.

Last year, the national team invested more than trillions of bailouts to prevent stock market deleveraging from triggering the Domino effect of financial leverage rather than stabilizing the stock market's earning power.

That is to say, the stock market has repeatedly seen what economists call the "inchworm effect", that is, no matter whether regulation is tight or not, whether the stock market is going up or falling, the ultimate and the biggest beneficiaries are the money makers.

From the perspective of long cycle factors,

So far, the bear market constraint since the 6124 point of 2007 has not been released. The main reason is that the trend of economic downturn has not changed.

The weakening of the gem is due to the tight regulation of the stock market itself, including the introduction of the registration system sooner or later and the speculation in the hot money market. The 4037 peak of the last bull market gem (the highest point in June 5, 2015) is an insurmountable barrier in the past few years.

The bull bear game in gem is essentially a game between government paternalism in the stock market and the real economy.

The stock market regulators expect to lead the hot money to blue chips and reduce the speculative bubbles of the stock market through the policy of "goodwill" (such as pparency of information disclosure of foreign exchange stocks) and "coercion" (such as the special stop policy and the restriction of cross-border reorganization), thereby inhibiting the collapse of the stock index collapse.

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A similar policy can reduce the volatility of the stock market and reduce the activity of the paction, so that the stock market will return to the semi depression state.

But plugging is not enough to stop flooding.

When the regulators of the stock market try to guide the market value and turn to the rational investment of blue chips, most Chinese style blue chips do not have the leading edge in technology and the bonus of innovation, and even the weak cyclical pharmaceutical stocks have great ups and downs.

More paradoxically, most of the new industrial support policies of the state are biased towards emerging industries, which is the greatest reliance on venture capital.

From a psychological point of view, this seems to be a phenomenon of "suspended sentence illusion" repeating in A shares.

According to Frank, a psychiatry in Austria, a condemned criminal will be given a reprieve in the last minute before being executed.

Similarly, the regulatory authorities are trying to put an example on the matter.

However, retail investors prefer to believe in anecdotes, rather than fantasies about the opportunity of getting rich in the fire and unwilling to face the bleak reality of buying or losing.

* Xintai company said that it would bring administrative reconsideration and the impact of news events, such as Societe Generale Securities, on shareholders' compensation and so on, so it needs a very professional assessment.

The competition between the policy makers and the market speculators in the process of * Hsin Tai's delisting is similar to that in the last century securities such as China Southern Airlines.

It can be said that there are many factors that can not be changed in the long term A share speculation, small fry and bad fry. Institutional factors including the threshold of IPO are too high, the market factor is the two tier market valuation is too expensive, and more importantly, A shares have more than 100 million investors, most of whom are small cap stock holders.

This is also the mass base for speculation, which is very easy to spark. It is only a long-term strategy to eradicate the force only by relying on the supervision of a single soldier or even a campaign of severe crackdown.