Cotton Futures In The Future Will Continue To Be Dominated By National Cotton Reserves.

To solve the problem of "near thirst" and not enough attention, the policy led "cotton sale in the country" led the cotton market trend, and where the cotton futures go from under such a predicament? The future cotton futures will be dominated by the national cotton store selling, and the short term callback pattern will continue. But when the national cotton auction is rational, the cotton futures will be stable and stable, and enter a relative consolidation state. Meanwhile, the trend of the US cotton will also have a direct impact on zhengmian. Therefore, considering the basic and technological trend of cotton at home and abroad, I believe that the possibility of the concussion of Zheng cotton in August is still large. Let's wait and see. At present, the domestic cotton market is obviously a "policy market". The spot lint has lost the right to speak because of its few stocks. The following are the following:

　　 Sell off After the confirmation of the news, the futures lint has changed to a long-term weak pattern and it has risen. The zhengmian 1609 contract has been on the rise since April 11th, the highest level to 10790 yuan / ton. After that, it rose to a higher level and increased concussion. It rushed to the 15780 yuan / ton line at the annual high level in July 18th, and the highest price rose 4990 yuan / ton line, which greatly encouraged market confidence. Since its dumping in May 3rd, its price has surged from 12428 yuan / ton to the highest transaction price of 16350 yuan / ton in July 28th, which has risen 3922 yuan / ton, reaching a new high. Unginned cotton The amount of resources is insufficient, and the running rate of the cotton mill is limited, but the price of lint rose from 10500-11700 yuan per ton in early April to 14300-15000 yuan / ton, which rose 3300-3800 yuan / ton line, and the seed cotton price rose from 2.70-2.8 yuan / Jin in early April to the current 3.80-4.00 yuan / Jin line, which rose by 1.10-1.20 yuan / Jin line. cotton Futures perform best.

Under the linkage of futures and spot, the textile enterprises have been tortured, the cost of lint cotton has been increasing, and the textile enterprises have been in a state of loss. In addition, after the auction of national cotton can not be reached in time, a series of problems haunt the spinning enterprises. The supply and demand contradictions have accumulated to a certain extent. The 150 domestic textile enterprises have jointly written to the China Cotton Textile Industry Association to reflect the problems of the cotton reserves. After that, the relevant departments of the state have also listened to everyone's suggestions in a timely manner, and decided to extend the time of selling the national cotton storage to September 30th. The implementation of this proposal has played a stabilizing role in the relatively overheated cotton prices in China, and futures have correspondingly adjusted.

When the cotton sale time was prolonged, the futures took the lead, and in July 28th, the Zheng cotton 1609 contract fell 690 yuan / ton, 29 days plunged 750 yuan / ton, although there were signs of stopping in August 1st, it was still in a weak callback pattern. Up to now, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton has been priced at two weeks low, and the lowest price is 14360 yuan / ton. Futures fell back to demand for their own technology, while the extension of national cotton sale time played a leading role. It is reported that in August 1st, 30018.539 tons of reserve cotton were delivered, and the actual turnover was 26370.518 tons, with a turnover rate of 87.85%. The average price was 13988 yuan / ton, the average price of the last day was 13937 yuan / ton, the highest price was 15240 yuan / ton on that day, and the lowest price was 12880 yuan / ton. As of August 2nd, the cumulative turnover of cotton reserves totaled 1673981.09 tons, the total volume of imported cotton was 296306.06 tons, and the turnover rate was 98.16%. The total turnover of domestic cotton was 1377675.03 tons, and the turnover rate was 97.65%. It can be seen that the turnover rate of national cotton in August has been lower than the average turnover rate, showing a trend of gradual decline. However, because of the short-term market rigidity demand, the price adjustment rate is still not high.