Prolonged Storage Time For Cotton Will Be Blocked.

This year, we are selling new cotton.

Import,

Under the combined influence of slow delivery process, cotton futures have gone through a sizeable bull market.

But entered the July 5th round of the platform finishing, as of yesterday's close, cotton futures main contract 1701 to 14690 yuan / ton, down 335 points or 2.36%.

Early stage

Confidence in cotton prices can be seen from the premium. Last Friday (August 5th), the national cotton price index B was 14838 yuan / ton, compared with the CF1609 contract of Zheng cotton futures, the premium was 218 yuan / ton.

But the change of wheel storage in Chou Yi cotton city has extended the storage time for one month.

In the process of price shock, market psychology has also changed quietly.

"Since the beginning of this year, the cotton planting area represented by Xinjiang has been greatly reduced by subsidized policies, and the growth of cotton is worse than that of the same period last year.

In terms of downstream demand, textile industry is recovering and demand is increasing.

If only 2 million tons were produced according to the original regulations, cotton prices would probably rise to the target price this year.

But the market mentality has changed after the lengthening of wheel storage.

A cotton Research Institute in Beijing said.

For the current macro situation of the cotton market, the relevant analysts believe that the three main factors mentioned above, the sale of new cotton has basically come to an end in early July, and cotton imports have been severely restricted by import quotas. This year, the national cotton reserves are playing a leading role in the cotton supply side.

In August 8th, the national development and Reform Commission website announced that it will extend the time from the national cotton storage to September 30th, and the total amount is not limited to 2 million tons.

For this measure, the above analysts explained that the number of state cotton stocks is huge, and the state needs to throw away the reserves as soon as possible, including the policy reduction of cotton area.

"The price of cotton will be suppressed in the middle term when it comes to price impact."

Last week (August 1-5) was the fourteenth week of the cotton rotation.

China's cotton net data show that the reserve price for last week's cotton reserve sale was 14628 yuan / ton, up 252 yuan / ton compared with the previous week, and the turnover was 150 thousand tons.

Rumours of dumping and storage postponed continued to ferment. Volume and price fell, and 85590 tons were traded during the week. The turnover rate dropped to the lowest level in the current round. The average price was 13860 yuan / ton, down 941 yuan / ton.

Data show that as of August 8th, this year, the total output of national cotton reserves has reached 1 million 730 thousand and 300 tons, and the average paction price has risen from 12000/ tons to 15500/ tons to 14000/ tons on Monday.

In mid April of this year, the Central Cotton store announced the detailed rules of the round of export. The total output of the storage was temporarily suspended by 2 million tons. The reserve cotton was stored in the 2011 to 2012 cotton reserves and part of the reserve cotton in 2013, and the paction time was from May 3rd to August 31st.

"In August 8th, the new announcement arrangement indicated that the national cotton reserve will extend to September 30th, and the total volume is not limited to 2 million tons.

Behind this move, the main reason is that the quantity of national cotton stocks is too large and needs to be thrown away as soon as possible.

At present, there are still more than 10 million tons of stock in national cotton reserves.

The inventory is quite large, close to Xinjiang's cotton production for two years. "

The above market people think.

In addition, downstream demand weakens cotton prices.

Tokyo futures analyst Xiang Yun said that since this year, the price of imported cotton yarn, represented by India Pakistan yarn, has also risen strongly. Since May, India's cotton price has risen by 40%. In order to curb the rise of domestic cotton prices, India's state-owned Cotton Corp CCI has begun to implement directional throwing and storage of small and medium-sized enterprises, although its reserves are not large, but the recent cotton prices in India have begun to fall back in India.

The competitive advantage of domestic yarn is obviously weakened, and imported yarn is likely to hit the domestic market once again, thus making it difficult for domestic cotton consumption.

In addition, the export competitiveness of textile and garment industry is weak, and the competitiveness of alternative chemical fiber has been improved.