Hongkong'S Export Prospects Continue To Warm Up, And Britain Has Little Influence On Its Return To Europe.

According to the third quarter export index released by the Hongkong Trade Development Council (TDC) in September 14th,

The export outlook continued to pick up, from 37.2 in the second quarter to 38.8, the highest level since the third quarter of last year.

At the press conference 14, the research director of the TDC, Guan Jia Ming, said that although the exporters' confidence has obviously stabilized, the index is still below the boundary of the rise and fall of 50. Exporters are still pessimistic about their export performance in the short term.

Mr Guan added that partly because of the low base of the export index in the second half of last year, the total value of Hongkong's exports declined or narrowed in the second half of this year. Unless there are major outbreaks, TDC will maintain a forecast of 4% decline in exports for the whole year.

Judging from the main industries, the third quarter industries are divided, with clocks and watches.

The change is most significant.

The export index of the jewelry industry rebounded sharply from 21.6 in the second quarter to 41.3, the highest point since the beginning of 2015, while the export index of the watch industry rose from 33.8 in the second quarter to 43, the highest since last year's three quarter.

In addition, the number of new popular electronic devices during the period was affected, and the export index of the electronics industry increased from 37.4 to 39.3.

In 2014, the sales of iPhone 6 had led to an increase of 4.8% in Hongkong's retail sales in September.

However,

And the export index of machinery dropped to 32.3 and 39.4 respectively, and the toy industry index dropped to 41.5 in the second quarter of this year, 41.5 in the third quarter.

Exporters' confidence in the world's major markets is stable.

The Hongkong TDC survey shows that local exporters' confidence in the major markets in the world remains stable, with the highest in Japan, 46.9, followed by the US (46.7) and the mainland (46.1), and the European Union has the worst performance, with an index of 42.4.

Pan Yongcai, chief economist of the global market of TDC, said that the European economy is still weak, but the impact of Britain's current EU off is not significant.

Nearly 83% of Hongkong exporters surveyed by the agency said that so far, there was no impact on performance in Britain, but 14% of the respondents said there was a slight negative effect.

More than half of the exporters said they would respond to the impact by developing new markets, reducing their size and operating lower quality products.

In addition, as the US presidential election variables increased, Guan Jiaming responded that the impact of the US presidential election will not be reflected in the year. Next year, the global economy will face more uncertainties, including European multi national elections, TPP negotiations and so on.

Potential opportunities for direct trade with Iran

In this report, the Hongkong TDC highlights the potential opportunities for direct trade between Hongkong and Iran.

He Daquan, chief economist of Asia and emerging markets, expects that the UN sanctions against Iran have been lifted, and that the retail environment of the country should change rapidly to cope with the market's long-standing demand for all kinds of high-quality imports.

In addition, due to the lack of water in Iran, there is a great demand for infrastructure construction such as water treatment. It is believed that there will be great business opportunities for Hongkong's infrastructure and Real Estate Company.

According to He Daquan, Hongkong's largest trading partner in the Middle East is the United Arab Emirates, and about 1/3 of the trade actually entered Arabia through Dubai's middlemen.

He said that Iran itself is the second largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa, and the middle class is rich and large. Despite years of international sanctions, local manufacturing is still quite large, and after the lifting of sanctions, it is expected to become one of the fastest growing economies in the region.

He Daquan said that at present, the United States can not directly trade with Iran, most of the relevant trade uses euro or RMB. However, at present, about 30 Iran banks such as Bank Melli and Bank Mellat have rejoined the global banking financial Telecommunications Association (SWIFT) system, while the small European banks have begun to provide related services, and the links between banks are slowly normalizing.

However, it is important to note that some Iran companies are still on the US Treasury sanctions list and should avoid related risks.