The Key Factor Affecting Cotton Consumption Is In The Terminal Market.

For many reasonable cotton prices, Wang Qian believes that from the perspective of cotton spinning, first of all, we should consider the price difference between inside and outside.

Judging from the development process of China's cotton yarn industry in the past 15 years, the change of cotton yarn industry is very obvious, and the scale of the industry has been gradually shrinking.

"The recovery of cotton consumption is not a rebound in the end market, but because the importers are replaced, resulting in a rebound in overall consumption."

Wang Qian, director of Shanghai international cotton trading center, admitted at the meeting that the key factor affecting cotton consumption is not at the raw material end, but in the terminal market.

From the data, we can see that domestic consumption and export of cotton in China are declining all the way.

"The total amount of fiber processing in China has risen from 13 million 600 thousand tons in 2000 to 53 million tons in 2015, and behind the expansion is a sharp change in the internal structure."

Wang Qianjin said that the proportion of China's cotton yarn processing industry in the total fiber in China increased significantly from 2009 to 2010, and dropped from 60% level to about 35. Cotton yarn occupies a weak position in the entire textile industry.

Current

There are three major divisions, Wang said.

First of all, this era can be regarded as the worst era for cotton spinning industry, and it can be said that it is the best era.

On the one hand, the competition pressure on the external environment of the whole industry is deteriorating, while the cost is rising, while the dividends across the country are shrinking.

But from another point of view, the external environment and policy environment of the cotton industry today is the best.

"The market for dumping and storage, import quotas, including export tax rebates" will be more favorable.

Secondly, under this background, the survival state of different enterprises has also been greatly differentiated.

The disadvantaged enterprises and the dominant enterprises present a completely different development direction to the consumption demand and profit of the raw materials.

Although the average data of textile enterprises after 2015 began to be profitable, last year the situation was better than the previous year, but different enterprises have their own differences.

cotton

Faced with the two major shocks of importers and chemical fibers.

Domestic chemical fiber has strong competitiveness in the whole world, and the price difference between cotton and chemical fiber is constantly widening, and the competitiveness of cotton is weakening.

Under such circumstances, the future of cotton yarn enterprises should not only be pformed, but also should be considered for pfer and pformation.

In the Internet era, we need to link up the new supply chain finance with the Internet to improve our business profit model, thinking, and

The cotton purchase mode should be changed.

In addition, in terms of regional capacity, Xinjiang and the mainland have also split up.

"From the definition of capacity growth in Xinjiang's ten year development plan, in 2016 this year, the floor production capacity has exceeded 13 million ingots, and in 2030 it will reach 20 million yuan."

Wang said, but the current intention to invest and build factories in Xinjiang is still advancing, and it is likely to exceed this amount by 2020.

However, it should be noted that for enterprises, the progress of enterprises in Xinjiang area is relatively fast, but more behind it comes from the support of policies, and the continuity of competitiveness should be considered ahead of schedule.

"Within and outside cotton prices remain at a reasonable position, the competitiveness of textile enterprises can be maintained.

So the price difference should be a factor in judging cotton price, not just the absolute price.

He explained that the current cotton prices are not outstanding in historical data, neither high nor low.

But the price gap between inside and outside this year has been shrinking. Now it is basically between 500 and 1 million, which is at a lower level in the past 15 years.

From the price difference between inside and outside yarn, the price difference has changed since the end of last year, and in many cases, the price of domestic yarn is even cheaper than that of outer yarns.

"This means that the growth of imported yarn 20% and 30% per year in the past few years has been pformed into the direct consumption of cotton. Now it is not a rise in terminal consumption, but a change in structure."

Wang Qian explains that some imported yarn is blocked out and pformed into the increment of our own cotton consumption.