Cotton Market Turnover Is Very Active, Stimulating Cotton Prices Rise

US cotton rose sharply last week, the ICE cotton main contract rose to 3.94% a week, compared with the outer cotton, the domestic cotton market is more powerful, zhengmian 1701 contract rose 5.21%.

From the beginning of this year, the main increase of cotton is 10.49%, while Zheng cotton is up to 31.14%.

What are the factors driving the development of cotton market? What will happen to the cotton market in the future?

The US Department of agriculture's supply and demand report in September showed that the total output of cotton in the world was 22 million 310 thousand tons in 2016/2017, up to 194 thousand tons in the annulus, 24 million 218 thousand tons in consumption, 7 thousand tons in the chain ratio, 19 million 554 thousand tons in the end of the year, and 44 thousand tons in the ring.

The empty supply and demand report triggered a sharp setback in the US cotton prices, but in the next few days the profits were gradually exhausted. Meanwhile, the superposition of precipitation in the United States cotton growing area made the market begin to worry about the cotton quality problems in the new season, stimulated the enthusiasm of the bulls, and from the global cotton entering the inventory cycle, the long-term price was too high.

At the same time, as the world's first cotton producing country in India, local output changes have a significant impact on the global cotton market.

According to the latest official data from India, the total cotton planting area in India reached 10 million 223 thousand hectares in 2016/2017, a decrease of 11% compared with the same period last year.

The US Department of agriculture has lowered the cotton production in India from 109 thousand tons to 5 million 770 thousand tons in 2016/2017. We believe that there may be a downward trend in the latter stage.

At present, India's new flower market is slow, domestic prices are rising rapidly, and the price of the ginning factory has reached 48000 rupees / candi (about 91.35 cents / pound), the highest level since August 18th.

In addition, the market rumors, India cotton exports will be postponed to the new cotton production after a thorough and clear, Pakistan textile factory panic buying, cotton market turnover is very active, stimulating cotton prices rise.

The sight turned back to China, and the time was pferred to April this year, when the market was pessimistic, the policy of the national cotton store went out.

In April 15th, the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Ministry of finance about the state.

The announcement of the relevant arrangements for the rotation decided that the state reserve cotton inventory will be gradually and orderly adjusted from 2016, and the reserve scale will be adjusted to a reasonable level.

2 million tons of storage seems to be a natural day, but the cotton market has exploded at this time.

The reason is that the bad profits have been fully digested, and the national cotton reserves have become the main source of supply.

In August 8th, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a notice. According to the change of domestic cotton supply and demand and market situation at the recent stage, it was decided to extend the rotation time of cotton reserves from August 31st to September 30th, and the total annual output was not limited to 2 million tons, and the final number of actual turnover was the standard.

This not only alleviated the shortage of market supply, but also made the domestic cotton market enter the adjustment stage.

Entering the September, domestic cotton began to appear on the market.

The output is expected to be between 4 million 200 thousand and 4 million 500 thousand tons.

For the future market, a large number of new cotton market will form a certain pressure on the market, but it is estimated that by March 2017, the new cotton storage will be less than 1 million tons at the time of dumping, and the domestic cotton market will be no less nervous than that in May.

With the successful launch of the national cotton store, the stock of national cotton stocks has dropped by more than 2 million 600 thousand tons, and in March 2017, the national cotton store will go out again.

In theory, the stock of state-owned cotton will continue to decline, and from the point of view of imports, 2015/2016 crop year (September 2015 to August 2016) accumulated 960 thousand and 400 tons of cotton in China, down 42.52% from the same period last year.

It is estimated that 2016/2017 countries are importing cotton.

It will not relax. Import will still be mainly based on 1% tons of tariff quota of 894 thousand tons, and the import volume will not exceed 1 million tons.

This combination of domestic output of 4 million 500 thousand tons and 7 million 600 thousand tons of consumption, the national cotton inventory will continue to drop about 2 million 100 thousand tons.

In the context of going stock, in the long run, domestic cotton is expected to continue to grow stronger.

To sum up, at present, Zheng cotton is in the upward trend of the big cycle. The underlying support level is about 14500 yuan / ton, and the investors in the medium and long term can rely on the cost of the new season cotton, and the target interval above is 15500 to 16000 yuan / ton.