Analysis Of The Current Situation And Problems Faced By PTA Industry

Fourth quarter

What is the trend? We need to compile the following viewpoints on the core enterprises and investment companies of PTA industry chain, including Hengli petrochemical, Hong Kong Union and Yihui resources.

Ma Jiaying, head of PX trade and research of Hong Kong Alliance Company

1, from the global PX pattern, the PX supply gap is concentrated in Asia, about 4 million 800 thousand tons / year, the gap is basically filled by the Middle East, and a small amount of European and American goods flows into Asia.

And China's PX import dependence is also high.

2, from the PX pattern of Asia, Asia's main PX

Concentrated in China, the exporting countries are mainly Korea, Japan, and the Middle East and Southeast Asia. The main source of trade flows to Asia is concentrated in China. The exporting countries are mainly Korea, Japan, and the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

The gap of China's PX is around 12 million tons. Korea, Japan and Singapore Thailand are the main exporters.

In 2015, China imported PX to 11 million 650 thousand tons, mainly imported from Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

3, the price of PX is mainly affected by the price of raw materials.

Supply and demand, downstream market prices and profitability four aspects of the impact.

The correlation coefficient between naphtha and crude oil is 92%, and the correlation coefficient between PX and naphtha is 87%. In 2015, the correlation between PX and naphtha reached 93.5%, but decreased from 2016 to 78 8%.

4, PX's four quarter Outlook:

The fourth quarter PX maintenance loss is estimated to be 284 thousand tons, and the PTA four quarter estimated loss of maintenance is 540 thousand tons. At present, under the condition of Yanda grand maintenance, the 9-11 month PX supply to PTA is relatively loose.

Therefore, the PTA maintenance is relatively concentrated, while the PX centralized maintenance period has passed, and the fourth quarter PX-PTA price gap still exists.

In the late stage, uncertainties increased, and it was reported that Xiang Lu petrochemical company plans to restart a production line in Gure in the quarter of 2017, and Hua Bin's acquisition of Far East matters has been basically finalized. The company plans to restart the Far East PTA device in 2017.

Gao Yanlin, manager and strategy leader of Meyer futures Chemical Industry Department

Gao has made a brilliant speech from three aspects: the review of the PTA market, the analysis of the current supply and demand pattern, and the fourth quarter strategy opportunity judgment. It has expounded the current situation and problems faced by PTA in a simple way.

1, the operating rate: 2016 PTA 1-8 month average factory load increased to 72%, an increase of 6 percentage points compared to 2015, August social inventory dropped to the end of 1: 1 million 650 thousand tons.

2, profit: 1-8 months in 2016, PTA factory profit is still on the margins.

Polyester filament profit decreased, of which DTY was relatively good and FDY was the worst.

The profits of polyester and short factories rose significantly, better than those of filament factories.

3, the new capacity: 1-8 months in 2016 PTA new capacity of 2 million 200 thousand tons, polyester production capacity of 1 million 730 thousand tons, just balance, the later bottle flake production capacity still has 1 million 800 thousand tons not put in, polyester demand is expected to improve.

4, inventory: in 2016, 1-8 months PX inventories increased by 400 thousand tons.

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Outlook and opportunities:

1, the fourth quarter due to PTA factory maintenance losses caused by 578 thousand tons.

(corresponding to PX inventories increased by 380 thousand tons.

Therefore, fourth quarter PTA is cautiously optimistic.

The overall trend of gravity rises, and the range of shocks is wide.

TA1701 expects space to be between [46005300], seeking security margin in this area, and grasping structural investment opportunities.

2, the spread of TA1701-1705 spreads.

3, in the chemical sector, TA and methanol, PVC volatility is the same, it is recommended to match risk hedging.

Reed, manager of Qingdao Jiaxing futures department, Zhang Lei

Zhang said in his speech that in recent years, as the PTA industry chain profits are getting lower and lower, in order to avoid risks, from upstream PTA factories to intermediate traders to downstream polyester factories have been involved in the PTA futures market.

The market spot trade form also changed from the original price to the spot price basis paction.

The fundamental impact of excess capacity leads to PTA futures continuing to rise, and risk free arbitrage opportunities continue to emerge.

The recent changes in the PTA industry are mainly reflected in:

1, futures have more and more influence on spot trading mode, and spot price mode has become the main way.

2, enterprises use PTA futures to conduct business risk management methods more and more mature, more and more flexible, and industry participation is getting higher and higher.

3, forward paper trading has become a new trend.

Forward paper and forward futures contracts are arbitraged.

4, risk-free arbitrage is getting bigger and bigger, and space is getting smaller and smaller.

On how to avoid industry risks, Zhang believes that PTA production enterprises, PTA consumer enterprises and middle traders are facing different risks of procurement and sales. They can avoid risks through current arbitrage and intertemporal arbitrage.

In the actual case, when the PTA base difference is greater than 180, the risk free arbitrage space can be entered into the buying and selling period.

In addition, in the early August 2016, the spread of TA1609 to 1701 widened to more than 210, and the risk free arbitrage space appeared in the cost accounting. It was also a good risk free arbitrage opportunity.

But it should be noted that, first, the PTA warehouse receipt will be strong in September, and September delivery will not be delivered in January.

Secondly, replacement of goods will result in replacement cost.

Moreover, the storage capacity of low-cost delivery repository is also a problem.

From a comprehensive point of view, macroeconomic risks remain at home and abroad in the fourth quarter. We need to see more real economic demand expectations, and empty overseas markets and financial attributes.

PTA the fourth quarter of the material will be at the end of the cost of crude oil first suppressed, Yang, PX wide shocks, PTA device maintenance centralized three factors, the overall trend of gravity lifting.