Why Does Australia Cotton'S Attractiveness To Chinese Buyers Decline?

Australia recently

The company said that due to adequate rainfall, Australia's cotton planting area will continue to expand, and Australia's cotton output in 2016/17 will grow nearly doubled over the same period last year, reaching more than 880 thousand tons (Australia's cotton output up to 1 million 150 thousand tons in 2012). Correspondingly, since the end of 9, port's bonded cotton, cotton, West African cotton and Ukrainian cotton have been more active in inquiry and pactions, and spot and spot shipments of Australian cotton have continued to decline.

Some foreign and Australian ginning plants indicated that as of the end of September, there were few Australian cotton available in the 2015/16 year, and the smooth export of Australia cotton to China, Vietnam, India and other countries made the cotton mill and exporters cotton for 2016/17.

Full of expectations (Australia cotton is expected to be listed in April, the sales season is 4-9 months), for China

As for traders, Australia cotton is just listed on the "no longer available" period of cotton supply across the year, which effectively compensates for the shortfall in the supply of high-grade and high-quality Xinjiang cotton after March 2016/17.

Despite the timely rotation of reserve cotton, spinning high count yarn and combed yarn "can not be used", and after 2 million 600 thousand tons of dumping in 2016, the remaining about 8000000 tons of stocks accounted for a large proportion of low quality and low grade cotton stocks.

The author judged that although the US cotton output increased significantly in the year 2016/17 (according to USDA's estimated increase of about 30%), the West African cotton production is expected to increase rapidly. Brazil and Uzbekistan cotton continue to get a "cup of soup" from China's imports. However, the attractiveness of Australia cotton to Chinese buyers will not be very obvious. China will still be the main battleground for the export and competition of Australia cotton. The reasons are as follows:

First, the price and quality of Australian cotton are gaining the upper hand in competition with the US cotton industry.

In September 27th, the CNF quotations of the US cotton C/ASM, EMOTSM and SM grade cotton in the same month as the shipping date for 9/10 were 83.5 cents / pound, 82.5 cents / pound, 85.2 cents / pound respectively, the same level cotton price was only higher than the US cotton 1.7-2.7 cents / pound, compared with the 2014 / 2015 annual 5-8 cents / pound difference greatly narrowed; and the Australian cotton fracture strength ratio was above 30GPT and above, and the fiber length was also more than 1-5/32 and above. The spinnability and consistency were also significantly better than those of cotton and Brazil, such as cotton picking, short fiber, impurities, and foreign fiber, and so on. For the Chinese buyers, the Australian cotton had a higher price performance ratio.

Two, 9 mid and late, part of the cotton area has suffered hail attacks, which has a great impact on the quality of seed cotton and lint.

According to Xinjiang's agriculture department and some research institutions, the total output of Xinjiang cotton in 2016/17 is expected to reach 370-380 tons, accounting for more than 80% of the total output of the country. But in the late August to early September, some cotton areas such as Kashi and Akesu continued to rain for nearly half a month. In late September, cotton and Korla and other cotton areas were hail and the yield of cotton seeds in some main cotton producing areas in North Xinjiang was significantly lower than expected (mainly in the middle range), which may lead to the supply of high-quality and high-grade cotton in Xinjiang in the year of 2016/17.

Three, global high grade and high quality cotton needs "blowout".

In recent years, the proportion of new equipment in Vietnam, India, Indonesia and other cotton mills has increased. Skilled workers have become more proficient. The output of 32S and upper count combed yarn and combed yarn has increased significantly. India cotton and Pakistan cotton can not fully meet the needs of cotton mills due to impurities, length, strength, hetero fiber, consistency and horse value. Therefore, the focus of inquiry and purchase of cotton mills and traders has shifted to the international market, with emphasis on West Africa cotton, American cotton and Australian cotton.

Four, 2016/17 US cotton exports can do "article" is not big.

Taking into account that in September 15th 2016/17, the US cotton had signed 1 million 113 thousand tons of cotton exported to Mexico, accounting for 46% of the total volume measured by USDA and significantly higher than that of 2015/16 and 2013/14. Enterprises such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan and other countries actively sought for the purchase of cotton in the United States and increased significantly (Pakistan grew by 92 thousand tons, up 4600%). The US cotton is not the buyer's market, but the American cotton's "daughter of the emperor is not worried about getting married".