PTA Start-Up Load Is High And Downstream Polyester Production Is Stable.

In terms of the weaving load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Sun Hong believed that after the G20, the terminal looms resumed one by one, and the load increased rapidly to 80% with the gradual improvement of orders.

From the situation of terminal feedback, 9 months later, from the xiaoxao, Changshu, Haining and other knitting varieties, to Shengze, Changxin and other places of woven varieties, the market sales volume has been driven by the whole, now some factories began to rush to work, local factory order preview continued to 10-11 months, for the market outlook is expected to increase.

Data: 70568 warehouse receipts, 3157 more than the previous trading day, and 15689 effective forecasts.

Start up: PTA load is on the high side, while downstream polyester production is stable, the scissors difference between upstream and downstream is narrowed, market dynamic supply and demand continues to bear pressure, and upstream raw materials continue to be weak, and cost support is insufficient.

Against the backdrop of poor fundamentals, the short-term rise in oil prices has limited the PTA's actual boost, focusing on the phased supply and demand improvement opportunities of Hengli and Yisheng maintenance in October.

Installation: Yanda grand 2 million 250 thousand tons and 3 million 750 thousand tons plant is scheduled to start in early October.

Ningbo MITSUBISHI 700 thousand tons plant in September 17th to stop maintenance, plan to park for one month.

Yisheng Hainan 2 million ton plant in September 10th to stop maintenance, has been restarted last weekend.

Tianjin Petrochemical 340 thousand tons plant near August 9th parking inspection, plans to restart at the end of September.

Spot price: the spot market negotiation basis is at 160-165 yuan, and the spot is near 4525-4540 yuan, and the warehouse account negotiation base is near 130-140 yuan.

US gold disk PTA offer was maintained at $610-625, with a delivery intention of 600-605, and the market remained close to $605, with limited trading.

Huatai futures analyst Sun Hongyuan said here that in the four quarter, especially after October, the PTA plant maintenance plan is still more: a 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA device in Dalian is scheduled to be overhauled in October 7th, and the shutdown time is about 20 days due to the dryer problem. At that time, 20% of the contract customers will be reduced.

A PTA of 2 million 250 thousand tons / year and 3 million 750 thousand tons / a year in Dalian

Parking will be started in early October.

Expected monthly load of PTA plant in October is compared.

The period increased to about 68%.

Sun Hong believes that in 11 and December, the biggest worry in the market is the resumption of two stages of retreating devices: first, the heron's April 2015 stop due to an accident is now driving for a drive, and is expected to be reopened before the end of the year; the two is the Far East March 2015 bankruptcy reorganization device, which has already reached a purchase plan with Hua Bin.

It is estimated that the PTA plant load will be 70% in November and 75% in December.

It is estimated that the high load above 80% of the polyester plant will remain at least until October, and the seasonality will decline to 78% and 75% in 11 and December respectively.

Therefore, overall, the supply of PTA in the four quarter was tight and loose, inventory or showing the trend of bottom up.

It is initially estimated that the monthly average load of polyester in October will be 80%, 78% in November and 75% in December.

It is estimated that the fourth quarter production of polyester is near 9 million 20 thousand tons. The demand for PTA in the four quarter is about 8 million 60 thousand, which is about 100 thousand higher than that in the fourth quarter of PTA.