Domestic Cotton Prices Will Remain Strong In The Short Run.

This week, the national cotton reserves dropped, domestic cotton and cotton yarn prices rose, and international cotton prices fell.

First, domestic cotton prices continue to rise.

Domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise this week.

In September 30th, the average selling price of the standard grade lint in the mainland was 14844 yuan / ton, up 561 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 3.93%, up 2012 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 15.7%.

The national cotton trading market electronic matching pactions in October the average contract price of 14610 yuan / ton, compared with last week rose 554 yuan / ton, or 3.94%, up 2310 yuan / ton, or 18.8%.

Zhengzhou cotton futures contract settlement price of 15015 yuan / ton in November, up 335 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 2.28%, up 2565 yuan / ton, or 20.6%.

The average purchase price of domestic grade 3 seed cotton is 3.59 yuan / kg (folding cotton lint 14161 yuan / ton), up 0.17 yuan / jin (last week, 739 yuan / ton of cotton lint), or 4.97%.

Up 0.7 yuan / jin (2022 yuan / ton of lint), or 24.22%.

Among them, the average price of cotton seed purchase in the mainland was 3.5 yuan / kg (13599 yuan / ton), which rose 0.08 yuan / kg (up 248 yuan / ton) last week, up 2.34%, up 0.46 yuan / kg (fold cotton lint 1358 yuan / ton), or 15.13%; the average price of seed cotton purchase in Xinjiang was 3.62 yuan / kg (folding cotton 14369 yuan / ton, up 28 yuan / kg last week (up to 0.2 yuan / ton), and increased by 3.62 yuan (kg / kg).

Two, domestic cotton yarn prices rebound

This week, domestic cotton yarn prices rose.

In September 30th, the price of 32 cotton combed yarn was 21960 yuan / ton, up 410 yuan / ton, or 1.9%, compared with last week, and the price of polyester staple fiber was 6790 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton last week, or 0.44%.

International cotton prices fell this week.

In September 30th, New York cotton futures contract settlement price in December was 68.08 cents / pound, down 1 cents / pound, or 1.45%, compared with last week.

The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is calculated at 1% tariffs. The import cost of the folded renminbi is 13332 yuan / ton, down 520 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 3.75%, lower than the domestic market 1512 yuan / ton, and the price difference expanded 1081 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Four, analysis and Prospect

domestic

In the short term, the trend of strong oscillation is still maintained.

According to the latest statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the total profit of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size reached an increase of 8.4% over the same period last month. The textile industry grew by 5.8% in August. The profit grew by 19.5% in the same period in July. The growth rate was 8.5 percentage points faster than that in July, the highest monthly growth rate this year.

In September, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.4%, unchanged from last month, continuing to be higher than the critical point.

Judging from the classification index, the production index is 52.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and continues to be higher than the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production has maintained steady growth and the growth rate has accelerated.

The new order index was 50.9%, although it dropped 0.4 percentage points from last month, but still above the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continued to expand and the growth rate slowed slightly.

The stock index of raw materials was 47.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from last month, below the critical point, indicating that the stock of main raw materials in manufacturing industry continued to decrease.

On the basis of fundamentals, on September 26-30, the China cotton reserve management company planned to sell 188 thousand and 900 tons of cotton reserves and 188 thousand and 900 tons of actual cotton products, all of which were domestic cotton, with a turnover rate of 100%.

As of September 30, 2016, the cumulative output of reserve cotton in 2015/2016 was 2 million 648 thousand and 300 tons, of which 2 million 352 thousand and 200 tons were made for domestic cotton and 296 thousand and 100 tons for imported cotton.

Some enterprises failed to pay the goods on time, and the corresponding contracts were disposed of according to the breach of contract, totaling 8 thousand and 400 tons.

According to the state

Market monitoring system understands that recently, the main cotton area weather has a slight impact on cotton purchase.

Anhui and other places have affected the acquisition of rainfall; the recent rainy days in Jiangsu area have affected cotton picking; Xinjiang has suffered hail disasters and has a certain impact on output.

Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price has risen all the way, Akesu, Korla and other southern Xinjiang cotton seed purchase price has reached 7.4-7.5 yuan / kg (lint 40%), individual manufacturers and even seed cotton purchase price up to 7.9-8.0 yuan / kg.

In terms of technology, Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF1701) is at a high level this week. The K-line touches down the brin rail line and tests the support force of the 60 day moving average.

In summary, cotton supply in China is relatively tight before the listing of new cotton, and cotton prices are expected to remain strong in the short term.