Maintenance Peak Is Gradually Over The PTA Load Level Will Gradually Rise.

Statistics of China's PTA industry development research and Outlook show that in June 2016, China's PTA industry was shut down and the PTA plant capacity exceeded 14 million tons / year, close to 1/3 of PTA total capacity.

As of June 2016, the total capacity of the PTA plant exceeded 50 million tons / year, the average operating rate of the industry was 65%, and the start-up rate of some installations with cost and technical superiority still exceeded 90%.

Technology progress, approval authority devolution,

Credit easing is an important reason for the explosive growth of capacity.

Due to fierce competition, since 2014, the PTA industry in China has seen a lot of production capacity shutting down and limiting production, and the other side of the new device has been put into production.

In view of the skyrocketing performance of black commodities, the PTA price will rise sharply once the government starts to produce capacity in the chemical industry.

PTA two big Hengli petrochemical and Yisheng Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons / year equipment are being overhauled, Hengli petrochemical and Yisheng petrochemical plant will re start at the end of the month.

As of October 17th, the load of PTA industry was only 64.5%, at a low level.

It is verified that the possibility of the operation of Xiang Lu petrochemical and Far East Petrochemical is very low during the year, although it will not have a substantial impact on the supply side in the near future, but the negative effects on market expectations can not be ignored.

In late October, MITSUBISHI's 700 thousand tonnes of production capacity and the 1 million 200 thousand tonne production capacity of Helen Petrochemical will be resumed at the end of the month or the beginning of next month, although there will be 3 million 750 thousand tons of Yisheng production capacity.

The overhaul plan, however, is gradually getting over. The PTA load level will gradually increase, and the probability of entering the accumulating period in 11-12 months will be greater.

PTA East China spot market trading remained at 01 yuan -140/150 yuan, the warehouse price slightly higher, maintained at 01 contracts near -110/115 yuan.

The market is generally in a mood of trading, and the market talks remain unchanged at 4570-4600 yuan; the US dollar PTA offer is maintained at $610-630, and the exchange rate is near 600-605, and the market remains close to $605-608, with limited trading.

The futures price of PTA futures was suppressed, and the PTA registered warehouse receipts increased sharply after delivery in September.

Since the market is empty, the registered warehouse receipts have increased substantially, which means that the market is selling heavily.

It is not easy to price up.

Demand side, downstream polyester plant started relatively stable, maintained at more than 80%, and downstream polyester plant overall product inventory is low.

On the whole, PTA supply and demand improved significantly in October, and the market is still in the stage of de stocking, and the supply and demand side is better.

Due to serious excess capacity, PTA prices always run around cost, and cost changes are particularly important for PTA price movements.

PX price * value added tax 1.17 * import tariff 1.02 * production ratio 0.655+ freight 100 yuan / ton, you can calculate the raw material cost of PTA (excluding labor costs, almost as a variable cost).

The PX price in the upper reaches slightly increased, and Asia's overnight CFR disk reported 802 US dollars / ton (+1). The difference between PTA spot price and variable cost was found. At present, the difference is near 400 yuan / ton, at a very low level.

This means that on the basis of constant cost, the price of PTA will fall very little.