"Blue Chip Group Dance" Has Made The Stock Market More Confusing.

Since the fourth quarter, another major focus of the market focus has been national reform. From September 28th, the national development and Reform Commission held a Symposia on mixed ownership reform of state-owned enterprises. In October 10th, the State Council issued the guiding opinions on the marketization of banks' debt to equity swap, and the 20 ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Finance in October 13th announced the list of the third batch of PPP demonstration projects in the country. The introduction of a series of policies aroused the expectation of the market to speed up the reform of state-owned enterprises, and the reform of state-owned enterprises was 5178 points.

One of the main lines of investment is bound to stimulate investors' vision of investment opportunities in the reform of state-owned enterprises.

Does the current blue chip lead to a bull market in the future?

Wen Guoqing did not agree with this expectation. "Blue chips, such as insurance, banks and brokerages, are unlikely to continue to rise, and now they should sell at high prices.

For example, the rise of non-ferrous metal plates is obviously driven by the coal sector, and the fundamentals are not good enough.

In addition, there may be some trouble in the overall economy next year, so I am not optimistic about the market outlook of blue chips as a whole.

The reform of debt to equity swap and mixed ownership is not entirely positive news. The hype of this concept is just an indication of the improper understanding of the market.

PPP theme will be a short-term positive for the market, but it can not bring such a big driving force.

Overall, the market is far from the time of 28 conversion.

Hou Yingmin also has some doubts about the concept of debt to equity swap. "From a certain perspective, debt to equity swap is not pleasant to hear. It is a way to pass the crisis. No credit pressure is turned into stocks, and stocks are not redeemed, so it is the risk of resolving the industry.

This year, we see many central enterprises' corporate bonds default, which reflects the overall economic unoptimistic. In September, the economic data slightly stabilized, but the overall economy is still facing great pressure. The introduction of this policy is forced to resolve the debt crisis between the industry and enterprises, but debt has become a share, which is not positive for the overall profit.

In the long run, debt to equity swap can enhance the overall performance of listed companies? I think that can not only bring about the dilution of enterprise performance.

"The recent rise in the cement and infrastructure sector is affected by the increasing investment in the fourth quarter of PPP, but on the basis of that, the market of blue chip group dance has been launched. I think at least there is no such condition at present, one of which is the lack of quantity.

In terms of quantity, it is higher than the previous two weeks, but that is about 500000000000 Yuan. This amount can not be enough to produce sustained attacks on the upper part. For example, the recent plate rotation is obvious, but no plate is a continuous strong hot spot, which reflects the entanglement of the whole market.

Another reason is that in terms of performance, coal is also cited as an example. The industry as a whole is at the edge of losses.

The price is not matched with the current price, it is only by means of the concept of reform of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises.

Hou Yingmin said.

In view of the long and narrow volatility of A shares, whether the fourth quarter will have the opportunity to usher in a big market, the views of market participants are not consistent.

"The economic data in the first quarter of next year are likely to decline a lot. I am not very optimistic about this rally. Instead, it may be a good time to do more.

In November, I think that it will start to fall, and the stock index will return to below 3000 points. In January, it will eventually break down 2638 points, or even around 2500.

therefore

Now is definitely not the time to buy. "

Wen Guoqing's view is to see empty market representatives.

Hou Yingmin believes that the four quarter will at least get out of the small market. "This Tuesday's market volatility is low and the Shanghai stock market fluctuates by 11. The Shenzhen stock index has only 30 points, indicating that the market is in a stalemate, but at least the popularity of the market has picked up slightly after the national day.

We believe that in October and November, we will face a policy vacuum period, and we will get out of a wave of "eating quotes" in a year.

Recently, the activity of the plate has been significantly improved. Whether it is small or medium sized or blue chip, the market performance is relatively strong in recent stages.

In the next stage, I think the blue chips and growth stocks should be allocated, but the configuration should be focused. The theme of the fourth quarter is expected to be the reform of the central enterprises and the supply side reform, so we need to stabilize the blue chips. Coal, steel, cement, brokers and insurance can be considered. But for banks, I do not recommend the allocation, the growth of banks' performance is declining, and the rate of bad debts is also improving.

Yuan Ji, general manager of Hang Seng Securities Research Institute, expressed his view to reporters. "The situation of blue chip under the environment of asset shortage and risk aversion will be more concerned, but it will not necessarily lead to the pformation of market style.

In the late stage, big funds suggested paying attention to blue chip stocks with high dividend returns, while small and medium-sized funds should still dig more companies with greater elasticity in industry and growth.

In view of the market outlook, Zhang Yibo, a senior bullock, is a firm and much more direct expression. "I think there will be no 28 conversion in the stock capital game.

According to the performance of active chips, the market will go to more than 3300 points, or even 3500 to 3600 points, but after 3300 points, I will gradually withdraw.

As for who will lead the market, this is the main consideration, but I am not optimistic about the black line.