Textile Enterprises Replenishment Of The Warehouse Is Coming Soon, And There Is Still Upward Space For Prices.

In the past October, the whole market showed a high level of turbulence, reflecting the game of seed cotton purchase in Xinjiang.

The high opening in October was mainly caused by the sharp rise in seed cotton purchase price during the national day.

Later, the purchase price of seed cotton fell, which led to a decline in the futures market.

But recently, the seed cotton market has stabilized. At the same time, the textile enterprises will replenishment of the cotton market soon.

In November, cotton prices will continue to maintain a certain degree of heat.

First of all, because of the seed cotton purchase market, the Xinjiang area is still difficult to say, and there are still possibilities to rush to harvest.

Secondly, after bidding for the national reserve, the purchase of new cotton has not yet started for textile enterprises, and the national cotton reserves will soon be used up. They must also consider accepting new cotton.

Therefore, there is still possibility of high cotton price in November. It is possible to establish more orders near the recommendation 15000. Investors who want to vent at the top suggest that they should wait for the first time, or hedge their own cotton costs to lock in profits.

The logic may be this: for farmers, the cost of keeping seed cotton is not high, and it is sure that they will not worry about selling, while selling and looking for the right opportunity to sell.

In the case of Zha Hua factory, the cost of contracting is relatively high, and it is necessary to buy more to dilute the cost, and the quantity of seed cotton is not large, so the demand for seed cotton is relatively vigorous.

The main practice of Zha Hua factory is to get in and out quickly, earn certain processing profit, and get profits through quickening the turnover of seed cotton and lint.

But in the early October, after the purchase of seed cotton at a high price, it was found that the high cost lint was not good enough to sell, and the fast forward and quick sale mode could not be sustained. Therefore, the factory began to shrink the progress of the purchase, or even suspended the purchase, resulting in a fall in seed cotton prices.

Follow up situation deduction: after the seed cotton fell back, the flower factory went back to the market, and the price of seed cotton rose again.

Because for farmers, they are guaranteed that they will not rush to sell seed cotton unless the price reaches their basic expectations or when they have to sell.

Therefore, we can see that in late October,

Beginning to stabilize, the acquisition progress is still not fast.

According to the latest statistics of Xinjiang cotton professional storage schedule in the national cotton trading market, as at 0 hours in October 25th, the cumulative processing volume had reached 1 million 242 thousand and 400 tons, and the total storage volume was 1 million 37 thousand and 300 tons, compared with 1.3% in the same period last year.

In terms of processing and inspection, as of October 25, 2016, 779 cotton processing enterprises in the whole year of 2016 cotton processing cotton and carrying out notarization inspection according to the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The inspection volume reached 4057263 packs and 919 thousand and 96 tons. Among them, 698 cotton processing enterprises in Xinjiang, the notarization test reached 3965656 packages and 898 thousand and 486 tons; 81 processing enterprises in the mainland, the Notary Inspection reached 91607 packages and 20 thousand and 610 tons.

As far as Xinjiang is concerned, according to the expected output of 3 million 700 thousand tons, the current processing volume is only 34%, and the seed cotton sale volume is about 50-60%.

Because the proportion of seed cotton sale is not high, the farmers' bargaining power is stronger than that of the Zha Hua factory, and the price of seed cotton will also rise in the later stage.

In addition, because of its position in the cotton supply sector, its strategy is crucial.

In the early stage, they issued a guidance price of 14800 yuan / ton, which has led to a certain decline in the futures market.

But in fact, I think this will play a strong supporting role.

Because this actually means that the cotton price of the regiment will not be less than 14800 yuan per ton without great risk, which is the market bottom price.

Moreover, due to the demand for textile industry at present, the quality of the Corps's cotton is good. There should be premium premium.

Relative to the futures market and the spot market, this policy is a support, not a pressure.

By participating in the dumping market,

In September, a large number of cotton stocks were replenish to cope with the current market.

But now, some textile enterprises have already consumed a lot of cotton stocks, and the demand for replenishment has gradually emerged.

After the national day, the price of yarn has risen to a certain extent, and the profits of textile enterprises have increased.

In the current situation, I believe that within 7-10 days, the spinning enterprises will continue to pick up the goods. When the price of lint is high, it is estimated that the spinning enterprises can only endure the pain.

It is only a prerequisite for most textile enterprises to purchase Xinjiang cotton. First, the need for high quality hand picking cotton is mainly reflected in fiber length, horse value and strength; furthermore, spinning enterprises are more recognized for machine picking cotton. The main reason is the consistency of machine picked cotton is better, and the price is relatively low.

In the early stage, because textile enterprises did not accept cotton prices, the rise in early October was aborted. When textile enterprises re entered the market, the main driving force for cotton price rising was already available.

In the international market, there is a marked increase in output in areas other than China.

The stock increased slightly.

The USDA report thinks.

From the global perspective, the global initial and final inventories in 2016/17 were substantially reduced. At the beginning of the year, inventories dropped by nearly 2 million packages, as China's consumption in 2014/15 and 2015/16 increased.

China has recently delivered more than 12 million packages of cotton reserves, and domestic prices continue to rise, indicating that China's textile demand has been underestimated.

The end of the world inventory is expected to be 87 million 350 thousand packages, much lower than the 89 million 810 thousand package forecast last month.

But from a detailed point of view, all the improvement is mainly due to Chinese factors.

The output of the international market increased by 1 million 605 thousand tons, the consumption increased by 480 thousand tons, and the total stock increased by 1 million 840 thousand tons.

The domestic market of the new year, as we have analyzed above, will be relatively loose before dumping and storage, and will lead to pressure on the international market.