Domestic And Foreign Cotton Market Supply Situation Is Better Than Last Year.

Although the supply and demand situation of cotton market is basically clear at home and abroad, the influence of other factors on cotton price trend can not be ignored.

Domestic currency liquidity excess, dollar appreciation expectations and other factors may be commodities.

Fluctuations must be watched closely.

In terms of quantity, the national cotton market monitoring system data show that the domestic cotton consumption in this year is 7 million 580 thousand tons, the output is 4 million 920 thousand tons, and the import volume is 1 million 50 thousand tons. In September, the output of the cotton reserves was 610 thousand tons, and the gap between supply and demand reached 1 million tons.

It is estimated that the domestic cotton supply and demand balance will not be very difficult in 2017 when the reserve cotton goes out orderly.

In terms of quality, recent public inspection data show that the main indicators such as length, strength and horse value of Xinjiang cotton are significantly better than those of last year. The overall trend of quality improvement has been basically established, and the structural contradiction of cotton supply quality will be effectively alleviated.

According to the US Department of agriculture, cotton production in India, the United States, Pakistan, Brazil and Australia increased by 0.38%, 24.41%, 17.85%, 10.12% and 53.89% respectively this year.

In addition to the increase in global cotton production in China, the growth of consumption is limited, and the pattern of production and demand has changed. The shortage of output of 430 thousand tons in the previous year has changed to the demand for more than 1 million 130 thousand tons of output this year.

Domestic year

Not optimistic.

First, the export situation is grim, the peak season is not prosperous, and the prospects are worrying.

In September 2016, China's textile and garment exports amounted to US $22 billion 800 million, down 15% from the same period last year, the biggest decline in the same period since 1998. The two is the increasing substitution effect of chemical fiber.

The price difference between cotton and polyester has reached 8000 yuan / ton, which is nearly 2000 yuan / ton higher than the average level of last year.

Since October, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has widened rapidly, and the price advantage of domestic cotton yarn has disappeared. With the large number of new cotton listed in major countries such as India, the price of cotton and cotton yarn is still falling further, and the pressure on the domestic market is bound to increase.

National cotton market monitoring system data show that the current domestic standard cotton and India cotton S-6 export price difference of 2760 yuan / ton, significantly higher than the first half of 2015 nearly 2000 yuan / ton level.

Based on the February India new flower quotes of 77 cents per pound (RMB 13300 yuan / ton of import cost) as reference, according to the price difference level of the same period of the previous year, the price of domestic standard cotton should be 15300 yuan / ton in December of December 2016 -2017.

Advantage, the price difference should be reduced to 1400 yuan / ton, that is, domestic cotton price should be 14700 yuan / ton.

The price of seed cotton is high in this year. There are three favorable factors in the open source: first, the new cotton market is late in the territory, and the supply is significantly less than the same period of the previous year.

As of October 24th, the 840 thousand tons of Xinjiang cotton public inspection decreased by 12.5% compared with the same period last year. Two is the overcapacity of cotton processing within the territory, and the acquisition enterprises compete for resources in the early stage of seed cotton listing. Three, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises is low, and some cotton enterprises in the early November may relatively concentrate on replenishing new cotton stocks.

However, in the case of relatively insufficient supply at home and abroad and lower demand for downstream, cotton enterprises are bound to buy along with the purchase. The pressure of new cotton sales will increase over time, and resource enterprises will become more passive in the game with cotton enterprises, thus forming a strong and weak cotton price pattern in China.