The Pressure Of Supply And Demand In The Foreign Exchange Market Is Eased.

According to the data released by China Foreign Exchange Trading Center 1, at the end of 10, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index increased by 0.16% over the end of last month. The renminbi has depreciated against the bilateral exchange rate of the US dollar, but it has shown a trend of appreciation for a basket of multilateral exchange rates.

What is even more valuable is that the pressure of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market is also easing.

On the one hand, the RMB exchange rate has fallen below the "6.7" mark for the first time, and the middle price has even been innovating low. On the other hand, the market has been quite calm, and the cross-border capital outflow has not increased or reduced. foreign exchange market The positive changes presented are intriguing. Behind the more market-oriented pricing, the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism has entered a new stage.

Since October, the Fed's interest rate rise is expected to increase. The US dollar index has risen sharply, rising more than 3%, and the Global 100 currencies have declined against the US dollar. At this time, it is a great test to the monetary authorities and the market to choose to consume foreign exchange reserves to maintain the RMB exchange rate, or to comply with the market price adjustment to relieve the pressure.

"The actual situation proves that Central Bank More strictly, in accordance with the "intermediate price mechanism of reference to a basket of currencies", the quotations will be more market-oriented, reducing the "wave filtering", which means that we will take a step forward in improving the exchange rate formation mechanism and deepening the development of the foreign exchange market. Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Xingye Bank, said.

From the point of view of the exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate dropped to 6.7 against the US dollar in October, and the offshore renminbi once approached 6.8. After entering the November, as the dollar index fell sharply, the central parity of RMB rose to around 6.75.

"Short-term RMB exchange rate trend is mainly to deal with. dollar The release of pressure; the medium-term trend is shock adjustment, long-term view does not exist on the basis of sustained depreciation. " Lu commissar said.

Statistics show that in from October 10th to 20th, the average daily expenditure of banks on behalf of customers decreased significantly compared with the average daily level in September, and cross-border capital outflows slowed down significantly. In addition, the deficit in bank sales and foreign exchange was significantly narrowed, and the average daily deficit was down by more than 80%, of which the average daily net purchase of foreign exchange dropped by more than 10%.

"This shows that with the further improvement of the regularization, marketization and transparency of the exchange rate formation mechanism, although the RMB exchange rate fluctuates under the influence of the external environment, the domestic market is expected to remain basically stable, and the short-term fluctuation of RMB is normal and solvable." Wang Chunying, director of the balance of Payments Division of the State Administration of foreign exchange, said.

As the relative price between the two currencies, the exchange rate is linked to the international market and the domestic economy. For developing and developed countries, exchange rate fluctuations are like firewalls. When external shocks occur, they can be dredging to prevent pressure from entering the country and keep their economy relatively independent.

Zhang Bin, senior researcher of China's forty person forum on finance, bluntly said: "if the exchange rate volatility is too low, it is not only a firewall but a risk amplifier. Once the external environment is unstable, the pressure of depreciation will increase dramatically, and consumption of official reserves will further increase the expectation of depreciation.

In fact, some investment institutions are following this speculation, constantly testing the bottom line of the exchange rate, constantly gambling with the policy, or even deliberately making profits from the renminbi.

"You know, even the" international economic and exchange rate policy report "issued by the US Treasury in October indicated that" based on the fundamentals of the economy, there is no foundation for a significant depreciation of the RMB ". Lu commissar said that the future uncertainties affecting the RMB exchange rate are still more, but the various factors supporting the RMB are more powerful.

"Economic stability ensures monetary stability. But for China, the key is to increase the tolerance of RMB exchange rate fluctuations. Xie Yaxuan, chief macroeconomic analyst of China Merchants Securities, said that the downward trend of RMB exchange rate discomfort resulted from a single appreciation expectation over the past years. It is a necessary stage for China's economic and capital markets to gradually understand the floating exchange rate.

The water of deep flow can be quiet.