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    China'S Central Bank'S Tolerance Seems To Have Increased After The Depreciation Of The Renminbi.

    2016/10/29 20:49:00 31

    RMBDevaluationChina'S Central Bank

    The recent devaluation of the renminbi has also been reflected in the rising demand for alternative assets, such as bitcoin.

    Bitcoin prices hit $653 during the day, a record high of nearly three months.

    The day before, bitcoin trading volume increased to nearly 5 million 500 thousand, a nearly seven month high.

    Zhu Jiawei, chief financial officer of China's biggest bitcoin trading platform, said that the rise in bitcoin is related to the depreciation of the renminbi.

    He said that exchange rate is the long-term and underlying factor of bitcoin prices, and investors will consider setting up some hedge and hedge assets under the influence of devaluation.

    Many market participants still believe that the weakening of the renminbi is mainly reflected in the strength of the US dollar, because traders expect the fed to raise interest rates in December this year, and the dollar assets are more attractive in the context of the Fed's interest rate increase.

    In a press conference last week, Wang Chunying, a spokesman for China's safe, also said that the recent weakening of the RMB against the US dollar was mainly due to the expected increase in the Fed's rate hike to push the US dollar stronger.

    She said,

    US dollar index

    The rise in global currencies is generally down, and the decline in the renminbi is not large relative to other currencies, and the renminbi appreciates against a basket of multilateral currencies.

    Anderson pointed out that despite the widening gap between offshore and offshore renminbi exchange rates this Monday, it narrowed compared with earlier this year.

    The onshore RMB opened below 6.77 on Monday.

    Prior to the Wall Street, the Central Bank of China did not seem to have the intention of guiding the middle price to defend the exchange rate. On Monday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar continued to decline.

    Following Friday's fall below the 6.77 pass, offshore offshore renminbi fell to 6.7850 against the US dollar on Monday, the lowest record.

    As of 5 o'clock a.m. on Tuesday morning in Beijing, the offshore renminbi declined by 10 points or 0.02% against the dollar, at 6.7840 yuan.

    MarketWatch quoted some market analysts as saying that as long as Trump's poll support rate was low, China would dare to allow the renminbi to depreciate more rapidly.

    North American financial services BMO capital market

    Monetary strategy

    Greg Anderson, global head, said: "the only way to restrain (the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate) is to worry too much about it, which will help Trump campaign."

    Wall Street's knowledge and articles have mentioned that Trump has been releasing the negative remarks on China since he took part in the election.

    In addition to last weekend's reaffirmation that China is a currency manipulator, he also claimed that it would impose punitive tariffs on China's exports to the US and cancel the "illegal export subsidies in China".

    However, judging from the latest polls, the gap between Trump and Hilary is narrowing, which will not make the RMB exchange rate so great this Monday.

    Alex Wolf, an emerging market economist at Standard Life Investments, a British capital management company, believes that Chinese regulators seem to agree that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate in the near future. "It may play a bigger role in the market, especially after the RMB is included in the SDR basket."

    Guo Lei, chief macroeconomic analyst of GF Securities, also mentioned in the analysis that at present, the Central Bank of China has not adopted the way of guiding the middle price to defend the exchange rate, but basically it is going with the flow.

    Guo Lei believes that the central bank at this stage of the appropriate depreciation of the boat, can be released ahead of the Fed's interest rate increase at the end of the exchange rate risk.

    Anderson also mentioned that with the depreciation of the renminbi, China

    Capital outflow

    Speed has accelerated.

    China's central bank released data showing that the balance of foreign exchange reserves decreased by 18 billion 800 million US dollars to US $3 trillion and 166 billion 380 million at the end of last month, the lowest since May 2011.

    Zhao Yang, chief economist of Nomura, believes that the expansion of China's foreign exchange reserves in September was mainly due to the fact that the Central Bank of China has sold some of its foreign exchange reserves by stabilizing the RMB exchange rate.

    It is expected that, as the US interest rate increase is expected to strengthen, the Central Bank of China may allow the RMB exchange rate flexibility to be allowed on the way, so the decline in foreign exchange reserves will not increase significantly until the end of the year.


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