China'S Exports Are Expected To Reverse The Downward Trend.

Customs import and export data released on the 8 day showed that in the first 10 months of this year, the total value of China's imports and exports was 19 trillion and 560 billion yuan, down 1.9% from the same period last year.

Exports and imports fell by 2% and 1.8% respectively.

In October, the export volume was 1 trillion and 190 billion yuan, down 3.2%, continuing the downward trend in September.

Exports continued to decline in October, indicating that the foundation for China's stable foreign trade is still fragile.

Experts point out that the biggest uncertainty is still external market factors.

With the strengthening of endogenous power and the continuous release of policy benefits, the whole year's foreign trade is expected to achieve stability.

As one of the "three carriages" driving economic growth, exports play an important role in economic growth.

However, after the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis, China's export pressure has been relatively large.

This is mainly due to three factors.

The first is the reduction of foreign demand.

This is easy to understand. Europe and the United States account for the largest export volume of our country. People will not get along well with their lives.

The total volume will then decrease.

The second is the reduction of processing trade.

In the international industrial division of labor, China is at the low end of the value chain, and processing trade accounts for the bulk of export volume.

However, with the increase of labor costs and the increase of environmental pressure, many export processing enterprises either go bankrupt or move, or pform and upgrade, and their living space is getting smaller and smaller.

With the reduction of processing trade, the total export volume will inevitably decrease.

The third is RMB appreciation.

After the subprime crisis, the general trend of RMB against the US dollar is appreciation.

In 2007, 1 dollars was equivalent to 7 yuan.

Now, 1 dollars is equivalent to 6 yuan.

At present, though

The depreciation of the US dollar has not broken 7 yet.

In fact, it is impossible to break 7.

If RMB wants to go out and internationalize and become a world currency, it will maintain its appreciation trend in the long run.

In fact, that's what China did.

The countries along the belt and road will be the key markets for China's exports.

According to the preliminary estimates of the General Administration of customs, imports and exports of China and the "along the way" countries exceeded 4 trillion and 520 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, accounting for about 1/4 of China's total foreign trade value in the same period.

At the same time, the proportion of general trade and imports and exports is also improving.

Data show that in the first 10 months, China's general trade import and export volume was 10 trillion and 850 billion yuan, unchanged from the same period last year, accounting for 55.5% of our total foreign trade value, representing a 1.1 percentage point increase over the same period last year.

Moreover, from the central to the local level, there are favorable policies to support foreign trade and encourage exports. For example, the policy of raising the export tax rebate rate to more than 400 of the products of more than 400 kinds of products, such as electromechanical products and refined oil, has been implemented since November 1st.