Market Capital Interest Rates Have Risen And Negative Effects On The Stock Market Will Gradually Reflect.

Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes went up and down, but gold plummeted. The New York Mercantile Exchange delivered gold futures in December, down 42.10 US dollars, closing at $1224.30 an ounce.

Gold futures this week have fallen by more than 6%, the biggest weekly decline since 2013. The two railway bureau of China Railway and Jiangxi copper suffered a mysterious clearance of funds, indicating that the opening of China's stock market will not be optimistic on Monday.

Now the main problem facing China's stock market is that the mysterious funds may suppress the trend of the stock index, especially the soaring prefix and resource sector, and do not allow the stock index to go up, but once the stock index market is adjusted, it will be difficult to control. It may induce the maintenance of the stock market and not let the index break the position, so it is unlikely that deep falls will be made, but the difficulty of the rise will be greater. Secondly, the resources sector will encounter unprecedented pressure. Three, although the expansion of the new shares can be ignored for a while, the negative effect of the long time can not be underestimated.

Inflation expectations

Also face many uncertainties, so the author thinks that it is imperative to avoid big gains, and the stock index will return to the range concussion. This interval may be between 3100--3200.

It has always been thought that China's stock market is unlikely to have a calf. Some are just mad cow and fast bear slow bear trend. Especially at present, the stock market environment simply does not have the basis of the slow cow. It is just that there is capital to make the stock market into a trend of slow cattle. It is not a very rational behavior. It is only the situation that drives it.

On Friday morning, the two cities showed a clear trend of differentiation, and the rise of heavyweight led to a new rebound in the stock index. Pan Zhongyi's road was approaching 3200 points. In contrast, the gem fell into a weak adjustment pattern. In the afternoon, the nonprofit brokerages rose again, and the Shanghai Stock index broke through 3200 points, reaching 3202.74 points. However, the stock market fell rapidly, the index dropped rapidly, and 3200 points were lost. However, the gem was reversed due to the movement of music network. At the end of the closing period, the Shanghai stock index reported 3196.04 points, or 0.78%, and the weekly line was 5.

In terms of volume, the Shanghai Stock Exchange clinch a deal of 343 billion 800 million yuan, 416 billion 700 million yuan in Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and 760 billion 500 million yuan in the two cities today. The volume of pactions has been significantly enlarged, and the Shanghai stock market has almost enlarged 40%, and the market has become impatient.

Judging from the disk, more capital is mainly attacked by the railway infrastructure which is represented by the two railway bureau of China Railway. It can also be called the concept of "one belt and one road". This is related to the early strengthening of the capital to activate the stock market, and the market media also touted the analysis. It is believed that Trump's election as president of the United States would stop TPP and thus benefit the Chinese side. Trump James, a national security adviser, hopes Trump can be more enthusiastic about China's "one belt and one road" initiative, and the Trump government will increase its investment in infrastructure, which is expected to invest 500 billion US dollars, which will also help the Chinese construction industry share a share of the US market.

China

It is a traditional tradition to see wind or rain. Plus the stock in the stock market has been activated. Naturally, many short term funds will come to the hype to attract many investors to follow suit, so that the sale of the stock in the middle of the stock market will be like a small cap stock, and the daily limit will be increased one by one, so that the index will rise rapidly.

As a powerful securities company, the stock market has become more and more popular. The stock market has also become active, and the stock market has become active. There are many followers, and there is a good opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong pass. Many well-known analysts recommend it. Naturally, there is no need for speculation. The stock price is constantly rising and rising. Based on the popularity of securities companies, it has always been a good thing to do.

In recent years, the price of power coal and coking coal under the intervention of big funds has been rising and rising repeatedly, and there has been frequent fluctuations. The coal color linkage has been very strong, and the prices of copper, zinc, molybdenum and nickel are also rising. The futures market, though controlled by some regulation, can not stop the speculation of funds, which has spread to the stock market, and the stock has been continuously restricted.

The weight of coal coloured is also very large, and the influence of index should not be taken lightly.

But the author has stressed that the situation of overcapacity in coal color production can not be changed, and there has not been much change in the fundamentals, especially in the coal industry. The leverage ratio of the coal industry has not been significantly reduced. The speculation in the futures market is just the result of the flooding of the market, rather than the reaction of the real fundamentals. The rise of copper in the outside market has always been regarded as a reversal of the relationship between supply and demand. Instead, it has been affected by speculation in China, and the safety belt must be tied up in it. On the 11 day of November, the air force suddenly launched a "night attack" and the bulk commodity market was completely exhausted.

Among them, rubber, Shanghai nickel and other varieties staged a reversal from limit to limit.

Up to the close, the rapeseed meal was down, and Shanghai tin and PTA fell more than 5%. Rubber, silver, Shanghai nickel, bitumen, palm oil and methanol dropped by more than 4%.

But coking coal is still rising slightly.

The author thinks that the cycle plate will encounter tremendous pressure on Monday.

　　中字頭券商煤炭有色等權(quán)重集體異動(dòng)上漲，導(dǎo)致指數(shù)出現(xiàn)快速上漲走勢(shì)，筆者認(rèn)為大資金依靠券商有色煤炭中字頭護(hù)盤，是希望打造一個(gè)慢牛走勢(shì)，而不是讓資金瘋狂自我炒作，出現(xiàn)瘋牛走勢(shì)，前段時(shí)間筆者一直強(qiáng)調(diào)神秘資金打造3100點(diǎn)政策底，希望把股指拉離3100點(diǎn)羈絆，所以紛紛啟動(dòng)中字頭和券商資源品種護(hù)盤，希望以此激活人氣，但是市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)不是能夠那么容易控制的，一旦投資者情緒有所激發(fā)，加上護(hù)盤資金通過(guò)權(quán)重來(lái)完成，市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)就無(wú)法控制，會(huì)成為瘋牛，因此股指快速上漲勢(shì)必會(huì)遭到大資金的阻擊，給市場(chǎng)降溫，從上周五盤面看，銀行明顯遭遇神秘資金的拋售打壓，給指數(shù)降溫，大家可以參看四大行興業(yè)銀行等即時(shí)成交數(shù)據(jù)，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)有大資金刻意打壓股價(jià)現(xiàn)象。

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More clearly, China Railway two bureau, as one of the leading stocks in the current round, before the data came out, the author did not dare to assert that the two railway bureau of China Railway was hit by the 170 thousand hand giant single plate in the afternoon. It is worth noting that the 170 thousand hand and the ten major shareholders of circulation are holding shares.

同樣江西銅業(yè)也遭遇神秘資金清倉(cāng)減持，一家機(jī)構(gòu)拋售15億元大約8500萬(wàn)股，與證金公司持股相符合，所以有媒體認(rèn)為是證金公司清倉(cāng)減持，筆者與媒體觀點(diǎn)證金公司拋售股票收割中小投資者不同，證金公司具有準(zhǔn)平準(zhǔn)基金的功能，有平緩指數(shù)的作用，目前有的個(gè)股非理性上漲，炒作意圖十分明顯，導(dǎo)致指數(shù)短期過(guò)快上漲，證金公司大力拋售完全應(yīng)該而且有必要，一方面是讓炒作資金自重，也讓中小投資者不要過(guò)多跟風(fēng)追漲，從另一個(gè)方面也說(shuō)明，這部分股票價(jià)值已經(jīng)被高估，已經(jīng)脫離基本面，這些個(gè)股走勢(shì)后市十分難料，炒作資金的見(jiàn)好就收自認(rèn)倒霉，還是硬著頭皮依然炒作，如果依然死性不改，不排除證金公司繼續(xù)拋售同類型公司股票打壓惡意炒作，給市場(chǎng)降溫，所以不管這部分股票后市走勢(shì)如何，筆者認(rèn)為還是少參與為好，跟國(guó)家隊(duì)作對(duì)沒(méi)有好下場(chǎng)。

In November 11th,

The first application of 15 enterprises was approved according to statutory procedures, of which 8 of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the total amount of financing of the above 15 enterprises is not expected to exceed 11 billion 200 million yuan.

Last week also announced that 9 companies financing 4 billion 500 million yuan, the new shares have been approved from two to Monday every Monday, the expansion significantly accelerated.

For the time being, investors are not alert, but for a long time, the negative effects will appear.

In particular, the valuation level of the new shares is a severe test. The differentiation of the five new shares last week is related to the acceleration of the IPO. Although it is worth observing, the risk is already brewing. The author thinks that the new shares have funds in operation, although sometimes the continuous trading is really tempting, but the small investors who are out of the information asymmetry can not know the specific targets of the funds, and can not know when the speculation will disappear.

In fact, the trend of the future is full of uncertainties. In recent years, the black line has been skyrocketing, and it has been useless for the management to suppress. The black line has been postponed, and funds have started to stir up agricultural products and other non-ferrous metals, leading to the related varieties going straight to the limit. If a single variety is rising, it may be related to supply. All commodities will go up to inflation. Relying on the exchange pressure is probably of no help. It also requires the central bank's monetary policy to cooperate. In October, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.1%, or 0.2 percentage points higher than that of last month.

In the same period, the industrial producer price index (PPI) rose 1.2% over the same period, and increased by 1.1 percentage points on the basis of negative correction last month.

Inflation is picking up and the downward pressure on the economy is still huge. Some analysts believe that the stock market is very good. I do not know where to start. The Political Bureau meeting also proposed to curb the asset bubble and implement a prudent monetary policy, and the central bank is also proposing a sound implementation.

Focus on asset bubbles.

Another difficulty of monetary policy lies in the RMB exchange rate. On the 11 day, the central parity of RMB was quoted at 6.8115 yuan, which fell below the 6.8 major gateway, which was 230 basis points lower than the 6.7885 yuan on the previous trading day (November 10th).

Offshore renminbi fell sharply in November 11th, hitting 6.85 points and hitting 6.8495 lowest.

It's only one step away from the 6.85 pass.

Analysts believe that after the election of the United States, protectionist Trump came to power, and the economic traders may take a tough attitude towards China, thereby affecting China's economic growth.

This is the main reason leading to the decline of offshore RMB. In order to maintain the general stability of interest rates, it is necessary to keep the RMB interest rate increasing. With the advent of the Fed's rate hike cycle, the author thought that China had interest rate hikes in 17 years before Trump was elected.

On Friday, the European offshore (Beijing time around 17:15) CNH suddenly pulled up nearly 300 points, hit the 6.801 pass, making the USD/CNH decline to 0.43%, but maintained for a short time, with half an hour, the currency's over half of the decline, the most likely is the central bank intervention, but the cost is great.