Exchange Rate Fluctuations Will Have A Huge Negative Impact On China'S Real Economy.

What will be the impact of the depreciation of the renminbi and how to protect it? The RMB may face devaluation pressure in the short term, but the space for further weakening in the medium term is limited.

Analysts generally point out that the depreciation is mainly due to the strong reaction of the US dollar, but the renminbi remains stable relative to a basket of currencies.

Therefore, the market for the current round of RMB

It seems that the risk preference has not been significantly suppressed.

The speed of RMB's breaking through the gateway is getting faster and faster.

In less than two hours after opening today, the onshore RMB dropped more than 200 points, even breaking 6.85 and 6.86 mark, hitting a new low of eight years.

After the first fall of 6.8 in the central parity of RMB against the US dollar in more than 6 years last Friday, the central parity rate of the Renminbi today is down by 204 points, a nearly eight year low.

The central parity price of RMB was 6.8495, eighth days in a row, 6.8291 on the daily, 6.8409 at 16:30 on the day, and 6.8452. at night.

Yesterday,

Breaking through the 100 pass, the highest since December last year.

Over the past few months, the renminbi has broken through the "juncture" with the speed of "trembling with fear".

In January 7, 2016, the spot exchange rate first challenged 6.60,5 for a month and a half before it finally broke through 6.60; in July 18, 2016, the spot exchange rate began to challenge 6.70 and a half months after breaking through 6.70; then only 1 months, 6.80 was lost.

After 6.80, the small pass can only be described by "wind and electricity".

Liu Jian, senior researcher at Bank of communications Financial Research Center, said that the Fed's interest rate increase event is approaching at the end of this year. Market expectations and speculation about the Fed's interest rate raising or directly promoting the phased strengthening of the US dollar will put pressure on the RMB exchange rate and capital flows in China. Besides, the seasonal factors will also have an impact on the foreign exchange market by the end of the year.

However, the data released by the central bank in November 14th showed that as at the end of 10,

Caliber foreign exchange accounted for 22 trillion and 640 billion yuan in October, the ring ratio shrank by 267 billion 864 million yuan, for Twelfth consecutive months to reduce, compared to the September ratio of 337 billion 482 million yuan to shrink the scale, in October, the decline in foreign exchange has narrowed.

At the same time, market participants also believe that since August, China's macroeconomic data show that the steady pace of economic enterprises basically set the tone, making the "steady growth" pressure weakened, and can tolerate greater fluctuations at the exchange rate level.

This provides greater room for the central bank to exchange rates at the RMB exchange rate. There is no need to worry about the negative impact of the exchange rate fluctuations and the pmission of asset prices on China's real economy.