The Domestic And Foreign Cotton Market Structure Is Readjusting.

Domestic cotton industry is changing.

If the cotton planting area in the mainland continues to shrink, cotton growing areas in Xinjiang are developing steadily, cotton planting area is stable, cotton growing management, picking and so on are using a lot of new technologies, and scientific cotton planting is being vigorously promoted.

In terms of sales and so on, the Xinjiang production area has also adopted many new models, which have achieved good results in the use of futures market spot price sales and base sales.

The upper, middle and lower reaches of the cotton industry are shifting, such as ginning plants, spinning enterprises, garment manufacturers and so on, not only to Xinjiang, but also to foreign countries.

This makes industrial employment, raw materials and

There will be great changes in other aspects, and the cost and price of the cotton industry chain will fluctuate accordingly.

Recently, domestic and foreign cotton spot prices fluctuated sharply. Last week, Zheng cotton prices also rose from limit to limit.

The reason is that the domestic and foreign cotton market structure is readjusting, and many factors affecting the global cotton market, especially the domestic cotton market, are changing.

It may suffer a lot of losses.

Li Yong, a cotton researcher at Hubei Baiyin cotton industry, said that according to the current domestic cotton market output, national cotton sales, import volume and demand, it is predicted that the supply and demand of domestic cotton market will be in a tight balance in the next few years.

Among them, the supply side, with the continuous decline of the national cotton stocks and the decline of domestic cotton planting area, the shortage of supply will become more and more serious in the future, which may eventually lead to resource shortage in the market.

Demand side, low spin yarn capacity pfer to Southeast Asia, in line with the domestic policy to eliminate high pollution, high energy consumption textile production capacity, with the upgrading of products, domestic enterprises will dominate the global comber market, market demand for cotton will be differentiated, and the total market demand will decline.

Accordingly, the supply and demand of cotton market in China will decline simultaneously. It is expected that there will be a shortage of high-grade cotton in China next year.

But at this stage, due to the excessive supply of new cotton at home and abroad, the market is facing greater pressure on sales.

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In terms of supply, there are at least three important supply variables in a year: first, the number of new cotton in the year, two of the quantity of imported cotton, and three of the number of cotton imported into the country.

These variables tend to be more volatile and often exceed market expectations.

For example, the increase or decrease of imported cotton will be affected not only by domestic cotton policy and exchange rate, but also by factors such as the increase and decrease of domestic cotton production and export policy.

From this year's national cotton auction sale and paction situation, the market expected volume trading, smooth out of storage, guarantee the supply situation did not appear completely, during the bidding sales process, insufficient inspection time and insufficient warehouse capacity finally pushed up cotton prices.

In addition, a lot of sudden factors will also make a big change in the market supply, which will ultimately be reflected in the price changes.

Recently, although the advantages of domestic yarn and imported yarn declined, sales of fabrics such as grey fabrics and fabric products of cotton downstream products showed signs of decline. The domestic cotton market supply is also expected to be relatively loose, but cotton prices continued to strengthen, mainly due to the difficulty in pporting Xinjiang cotton, the reluctant sale of cotton farmers in the mainland, and substantial increase in freight rates. Meanwhile, social hot money poured into the futures market and increased the price of commodities in turn.

Last weekend, the price of Zheng cotton increased from a daily limit to a limit in a relatively short period of time, which means that the sudden market factors have a great impact on cotton prices.

At present, only from the domestic cotton yarn market pattern, the changes are not only large but also complicated.

Reporters learned from the above forum that Xinjiang yarn, mainland yarn and imported yarn have formed a "three feet stand" pattern in the domestic cotton yarn market. The market share of the three will change greatly with the change of production cost, which will have an impact on the upper, middle and lower reaches of the cotton industry.

Enterprises should consider the changes of these market factors in formulating production plans and pricing strategies.

According to the reporter's understanding, before the implementation of the cotton target price policy, imported cotton and imported yarn dominate the domestic market, and the price advantage once imported cotton and imported yarn were "rampage" in the domestic market.

But with the cotton target price policy playing a role, the price of domestic cotton and domestic yarn has plummeted, and the domestic cotton and cotton yarn market has changed quietly. Over the years, the market structure dominated by imported yarn has disappeared in China's low and medium yarn Market and replaced by Xinjiang cotton and Xinjiang yarn.

However, since the second half of this year, the price of domestic cotton and domestic yarn is high, and imported cotton and imported yarn are full of confidence in entering the domestic market.

The output and cost of India yarn, Vietnamese yarn and Pakistan yarn will also have a great impact on the domestic market.