PTA Has Returned To Its Starting Point.

Although the repair device was restarted in mid 10, but after entering November, both the 1 million 500 thousand tons and three Lane 1 million 200 thousand tons failed to stop. In addition, the supply of the Hon Bang device reduced the original ease of supply. It was initially estimated that PTA would go 30 thousand to 50 thousand tons in November.

At the end of November, the BP110 million tons of BP110 units were available.

Without considering the failure of other devices, the supply and demand of PTA in December will still be in a tight balance.

Last Friday evening, the domestic futures market staged an extreme market. PTA futures rose from limit to limit in a few minutes. It fully interpreted the greed and ruthlessness of capital. This is a step in place to kill the capital of anti industry fundamentals.

At present, PTA has returned to its starting point. Judging from the cost side and the supply and demand side of PTA itself, we believe that the market should not continue to be empty. We should seek opportunities to buy more.

The oil market has been losing money recently, and oil prices have dropped by nearly 20% from high.

First of all, since the OPEC reached a preliminary production restriction agreement in Algeria in September 28th, there has been no specific restriction on production in the late stage, and the internal differences of OPEC have been relatively large. At the end of the month, the OPEC conference has limited prospects for limiting production. Secondly, in October, OPEC crude oil output hit a record high of 33 million 830 thousand barrels per day, and the global crude oil supply increased by 800 thousand barrels per day to 97 million 800 thousand barrels per day. The number of us drilling increased steadily, and the global crude oil surplus once again worried the market. Finally, the US increased interest rate in December and the US index rose sharply, and the bulk commodities led by crude oil were under pressure.

Although the price of crude oil has been depressed by multiple negative concentration, after nearly 20% decline, it has completely retraced the expected increase in the pre production limit, and the US index is facing 100 points of long-term pressure again.

In addition, we can not completely exclude the possibility of limiting production at OPEC meeting at the end of the month, and support for the peak season of oil demand in winter.

On the whole, profits were concentrated and released, and short term crude oil continued to have limited downside.

Since October, as the price of gasoline has strengthened, the substitution of LPG has vanished and the Eurasian naphtha window has been closed, the naphtha cracking price difference has reached 35 US dollars / ton from the beginning of October.

The current US $80 / ton is obviously stronger than that of crude oil.

But the price difference of 80 US dollars / ton is still in the same low level in recent years. The price of naphtha in the fourth quarter will also be seasonally strong. It is expected that the naphtha cracking price difference will continue to rise.

Asia's PX- naphtha oil price difference dropped from the highest 430 US dollars / ton in early August to the current US $350 / ton, and PX processing profit was squeezed sharply, and the price difference level was close to last year's average level.

Although the supply pressure of PX in Asia is still relatively large in the four quarter of the year, there is little room for PX profits to continue to be squeezed under the support of PTA load and its own cost. It is estimated that the oil price difference between PX- and naphtha in 11 to December will fluctuate from 330 to 350 USD / tonne.

From the supply side, in October, Yisheng, Hengli and MITSUBISHI's centralized overhaul led to tight supply of PTA, and about 120 thousand tons of stock left in the same month. At the end of October, PTA's social inventory dropped to a low level of about 1 million 400 thousand tons.

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As for production profit and inventory level, as of November 15th, the average production profit of polyester link was around 440 yuan / ton, reaching a new high in the year. The finished product inventory level was about 7 days, which was significantly lower than that of 17 days in the same period last year.

It can be seen that polyester production and operation indicators are significantly better than the same period last year. During the G20 meeting, polyester factories have been shut down for a large area, and the fourth quarter polyester load is expected to remain high, supporting strong support for raw materials.

To sum up, crude oil adjustment is basically in place, short-term rebound is expected to occur, naphtha prices remain strong, PX profit compression space is small, PTA supply and demand to maintain a tight balance state, polyester load to maintain a high level of raw materials to form a rigid demand support, and the current PTA spot processing fees at 400 to 450 yuan / ton low level.

We believe that at this stage, it is not appropriate to continue watching PTA, and suggest that the price should be 4720 yuan to 4770 yuan per ton.