Cold Winter Promotes Clothing Sales, Garment Retail Data Improve And Good Start.

La Nina hit this year, probably a cold winter this year.

The monitoring of the National Climate Center shows that the equatorial Middle East Pacific has entered the La Nina state in August this year. According to the National Oceanic Environment Prediction Center, the sea surface temperature index of the Nino 3 and the Nino 3.4 regions in the equatorial Middle East Pacific are -0.6 degrees, indicating that the La Nina state is still continuing.

It is estimated that the equatorial Middle East Pacific will remain in La Nina in November and become a La Nina event in winter.

La Nina is a phenomenon of cold anomalies in the equatorial and Middle East Pacific, which can be called anti El Nino phenomenon in a way.

La Nina is generally judged by the sea surface temperature anomaly index of the equatorial Pacific Ocean between the 120~170 degree of the West and the latitude of 5 degrees between the north and the south.

When the sea surface temperature is below -0.5, it is called "La Nina state"; if La Nina condition lasts for more than 5 months, it is judged to be a "La Nina event".

One of the effects of La Nina on China's climate is that winter temperatures may be low and cold weather is likely to occur.

Statistics show that since 1950, there have been 14 incidents of La Nina, which affected 17 winter in China. In addition to no statistics in 1950, 13 of the other 16 winter seasons were colder than the same period of the year, and the proportion of partial cold was as high as 80%. Among them, typical cold weather occurred in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011.

Cold winter promotion

The cold winter weather is good for the sales of clothing industry.

The traditional sales season of clothing industry is in the first quarter and fourth quarter, mainly because of the high price and large profits of the winter products in the two quarters. At the same time, there are also major holidays (Spring Festival, National Day) and "double eleven" activities to promote consumption.

Under the background of the cold winter temperature, the consumption of winter clothing will increase significantly, which will make a great contribution to the income and profits of garment enterprises.

From 2008, 2011, 2012, three La Ni events in the four quarter and second quarter of the first quarter of clothing sales, the quarter's revenue growth has improved, such as 2011 9~11 month clothing industry revenue grew 32%, the ring ratio significantly improved.

From the point of view of the clothing retail situation of hundreds of key large enterprises released in October, the clothing retail sales increased by 5.80% in the same period last year, and the growth rate was 3.9 percentage points faster than that of the same period last year. It is also the second highest monthly growth rate after July this year.

The growth rate of retail sales in October was mainly driven by the eleven Golden Week holidays and the earlier impact of winter this year (such as the cold air attack in early November this year and the northern region suffered by Qiang Jiangxue).

2015 "warm winter" to form a low base, is expected to promote the fourth quarter of this year's year-on-year growth rate than the ring.

The warmer winter last year has had an impact on the sales of clothing industry, and its impact is global.

Several international clothing brands, such as UNIQLO and GAP, have seen a decline in their performance. For example, the 15 year August sales of UNIQLO's parent company fell by 55% in February August, the first half year net profit decline in nearly 5 years.

Domestic parity

The leading family of Hai Lan has also been affected by warm winter. 15Q4's single quarter growth has dropped to double digits in the previous three quarters.

For the 23 comparable companies in the brand clothing industry, we analyzed the impact of warm winter from three dimensions: 11 of the 15Q4 revenue declines, 12 of the year-on-year slowdown in revenue growth and 12 of the slowdown in revenue growth, and 6 from three dimensions.

About half of the garment industry was affected by warm winter in the four quarter.

Under the influence of cold winter weather this year, the low base expected in the fourth quarter of last year will also boost the growth rate of the four quarter of this year.

At present, the valuation of the apparel industry is low in terms of fundamentals. It is suggested that the leading enterprises with low valuation should be concerned.

In the past 16 years, A shares have been switched over, and the consumer goods sector has returned to public view. Among them, the good performance of food and beverage and home appliances sector is actually valuing and repairing, compared with other consumer industries.

The apparel industry has been in the middle and lower reaches of the apparel industry since the beginning of this year, while many companies in the textile and garment industry have been pformed and Tai Gaoqi valued.

Fourth quarter cold winter good sales of clothing, is expected to improve performance, thereby promoting the valuation of the industry to upgrade.

It is suggested that attention should be paid to the subject matter of the clothing industry specialized in the main industry, forming a leading position and low valuation, mainly for Hai Lan's home, Semir clothing, seven wolves, nine herdmen, AOKANG international and Luo Lai.