Now TPP Is Abandoned By The United States, And Some Domestic Textile Enterprises Still Can'T Laugh.

After Trump announced the withdrawal of the us from the p Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), the whole world was in an uproar.

After a sigh of relief, China should also think about the "one belt and one road" that we have conceived. Is there any impetus to continue? At present, Japan and Australia express their strong support for the TPP agreement.

Without the US, TPP is no longer worrying.

With the decline of TPP, how to promote China's globalization strategy remains to be further observed.

The author used to talk about this TPP in the textile circle, and businesses will have a headache.

These textile giants will say that China used to be a global textile industry cluster, and its products are facing the global demand. If TPP comes, China's textile competitiveness is certainly not as good as before.

Coupled with the global economic slump and shrinking exports, the days ahead will be even more difficult.

Now TPP has been abandoned by the United States and has gone bankrupt in essence. However, some textile enterprises in China are still unable to laugh or even get annoyed.

Why is this happening? Before that, let's get to know TPP.

TPP is a free-trade agreement launched by the four countries of New Zealand, Singapore, Chile and Brunei, which began brewing in 2002. Since then, it has been constantly upgrading and expanding. In February 2016, the 12 countries of the United States, Japan, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, new Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam formally signed the agreement in Oakland.

Together, the 12 participating countries account for 40% of the global economy and surpass the European Union.

Among the provisions of TPP, the most notable provision is "

"TPP, in principle, requires all members to cancel trade tariffs when they ask for trade between Member States.

TPP, headed by the United States and Japan, is in principle excluded from China, because the United States believes that China has become the most benefited country in the process of globalization when it first absorbed China into WTO.

China has made use of comparative advantage to sell labor and cheap resources, though it is all physically and painstakingly hard, but it has become a miracle of growth in the global economy.

They believe that they have made their own profits and achieved the Chinese miracle. This time, TPP must not allow China to participate or even deliberately exclude China. Therefore, the biggest negative impact of TPP on China will be the reduction of employment and the loss of industry.

For example, according to the TPP regulations, all processes and raw materials after the start of yarn should be carried out in TPP member countries to enjoy 12 domestic zero tariff treatment.

As a big textile country, China wants to keep it out of the question.

Vietnam became the biggest winner of TPP.

Due to lower labor costs, Vietnam has been taking advantage of TPP's zero tariff treatment and Vietnam's textile and garment business will surpass China for more chances.

According to Eurasia Group estimates, Vietnam's clothing and footwear exports could increase by 50% in 10 years.

Vietnam's exports to the United States in 2025 will amount to $55 billion, and the average tariff to American textiles will be reduced from the current 17.5% to zero tariff. Besides, Vietnam's seafood exports will also benefit from the abolition of import tariffs on shrimp, squid and tuna.

When I attended the meeting, I found that the experts who spoke about the macroeconomic situation in the front would not miss the opportunity to give TPP an alarm bell for entrepreneurs.

I recall that some experts said that TPP would force enterprises to move factories from China to Vietnam, and enterprises should take early layout as a long-term development consideration.

These enterprises see the situation is not right, listen to experts, have spent a lot of money in Vietnam to run factories.

Companies such as Tianhong textile, Shenzhou International, China Textile Co., Ltd., Qingdao, China, Shandong, textile, Baron East, Huafu color spinning, mutual textiles and other companies are pferring their operations to Vietnam in order to benefit from the TPP agreement.

Among them,

The total investment volume of Vietnam's Tianhong Haihe industrial zone is estimated to be 250 billion. The total investment of Bailong Oriental investment has reached 300 million US dollars.

TPP bankruptcy, so that these enterprises have been put into operation.

This is only economic level, and the impact on the political level will be even more far-reaching.

For example, "along the way" strategy.

Although the official orthodoxy documents did not match the "one belt" strategy with the TPP, the official think tank, when analyzing the "one belt and one road", referred to TPP.

I recall that at a high-level meeting, a senior executive once said that TPP is a newly established trade rule against developed developing countries led by the United States, and that "one belt and one road" will unite more developing countries, thereby countering the constraints of TPP.

Looking at the reports, Zhang Jianping, director of the International Cooperation Office of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the development and Reform Commission, also said that during the process of joining the TPP in the relevant countries, the standards and conditions were very strict, and it had to go through very arduous negotiations, but the "one belt and one road" platform did not have such harsh requirements. TPP

He believes that more and more developing countries will have the opportunity to participate in the "one belt and one way" cooperation.

In order to cooperate with the "one belt and one way" strategy, China established the Asia Investment Bank.

Asia Investment Bank and "one belt and one road" are regarded as twin brothers and are fully supported by the policy.

In addition, the Silk Road Fund has been successfully launched, and a number of infrastructure interconnection projects have been steadily advancing.

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After the decline, China's global market structure has changed greatly, and the speed of these strategies may also be affected.

Influenced by the US withdrawal from TPP, China's Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has recently become the focus of attention at the APEC leaders summit.

Obviously, RCEP is regarded as an alternative to TPP protocol.

Rich people make money together. Once the group owners have gone, then they can get a change.

However, this group of owners is not China.

"The RCEP process is dominated by ASEAN as the core," said Geng Tan, a spokesman for China's Ministry of foreign affairs.

For a long time, China and ASEAN and other parties concerned have been actively promoting the RCEP negotiations.

We are willing to continue to push forward the negotiation process with all parties and strive for early positive progress.

Singapore's prime minister Li Xianlong, who supports TPP, is now appealed to Asia Pacific countries to support RCEP and other alternative agreements.

The trade ministers of Vietnam and Malaysia, who were members of TPP, also said they would turn their attention to RCEP.

Under this circumstance, TPP will step aside, RCEP will receive more attention or speed up its progress.

In the tide of Trump's anti globalization, RCEP seems to be the propeller of stabilizing global free trade.

Of course, the aged WTO is still the mainstay.

In addition, we have to pay attention to the fact that at the beginning, China and Russia were unable to enter the TPP, which made China and Russia further closer to economic cooperation.

At the beginning, the two sides wanted to cooperate with China to ensure China's energy supply. For Russia, China provided high-quality manufacturing industries and consumer markets with mutual benefits.

Without the blockade of TPP, the external thrust of China and Russia has further weakened, and the relationship between China and the Pacific Rim countries has been further heated up.