A Shares This Round Of Rebound In The Market Half Of The Opportunity To Reduce Holdings

In the wake of the US presidential election, global stock markets fell for the three consecutive month in order to avoid the uncertainty of the election results.

After the victory of Trump, the global stock market rebounded. As the leading market, the US stock market quickly recovered the previous three months' decline in three trading days, and seven times in the next 10 trading days.

Before winning the election, the mainstream public opinion in the United States almost fell on the ground and did not look up to Trump. He even thought that if he was elected, the global economy would fall into recession and the capital market would enter.

However, after November, the fact is contrary to what we expected.

In fact, because Trump did not have political experience, the mainstream media did not understand it.

From Trump's policy point of view, he urged the United States to return to the real economy and enhance its competitiveness in the manufacturing industry. He advocated reducing taxes to attract the manufacturing industry of multinational companies to return to the United States. He advocated strengthening infrastructure construction and stimulating the growth of the real economy; he advocated loosening financial supervision and giving necessary autonomy to enterprises.

Unlike previous technology stocks, which led the stock market to rise, the stock market rose this time by the traditional economy.

After the three trading day of Trump's election, the Dow Jones index reached a record high while the S & P 500 index reached a new high on the eleventh th, and the Nasdaq stock market lagged far behind the Dow Jones index.

The traditional industries in the US stock market are better than those in the high-tech industry, which are mainly related to Trump's policy orientation.

Construction is full of expectations, and the global commodity market has risen sharply.

On the day of Trump's victory, I changed my previous cautious attitude and argued that the stock position could be raised to 80%. I believe that the current market will exceed the previous expectations. The main logic lies in the following points:

A. in the long run, the 3160 point is the value game center of the Shanghai Composite Index. There is no significant factor affecting the stock market to run below this center. If there is a great number of factors to stimulate the market, once the market breaks through this center, the inertia of the game will generally lead to a 300-400 rise in the market.

Trump, B., is expected to reverse the supply and demand of commodities in stages in the implementation of massive infrastructure projects.

After 5 years of bear market, the commodity market has already entered the bottom up stage in 2016. The inventory of production enterprises is very low, and there is an objective need for replenishment.

Because of Trump's policy orientation and the Chinese government's suppression of the real estate bubble, the domestic speculative capital has shifted to the commodity market in large scale. The resultant force of several factors has led to a phased blowout in the commodity market.

C. blowout in commodity markets will improve the assets of related enterprises, and the bad rate of bank loans will obviously improve, so as to raise the valuation level of financial stocks step by step.

D. mineral resources and financial stocks are the two largest stocks in the stock market. The phased recovery of these two plates is enough to push the market to rebound at around 500.

Although optimistic about the market in the four quarter of the market, but in essence, it is still an intermediate rebound, can not be the beginning of the bull market.

First, the downward trend of the economy remains unchanged.

This year, our economy can achieve a 6.7% growth rate, but next year, the approximate rate will continue to fall to the 6.4-6.5% line, or even exclude individual quarters from below 6%.

Second, the effect of real estate regulation will be gradually reflected.

The continued boom in real estate sales in the first half of this year has led to warmer economic data and higher demand for commodities in the second half of this year.

After April, although housing prices soared, sales of real estate continued to fall, and negative growth began after October, and sales fell by nearly 24% in November. This trend is expected to continue in the coming months.

Generally speaking, the decline in economic data and demand for commodities will fall after 6-10 months in real estate sales, and the downside of the data will be obvious in the first half of next year.

As the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong Exchanges is approaching, the price difference of AH shares is shrinking.

The valuation pressure is increasingly apparent.

Since the beginning of this year, the premium level of A shares to H-shares is generally in a downward trend. The premium rate in February is 45%, which is now down to 22%, and the recent two week has again accelerated downward trend.

With the opening of Shanghai Hong Kong Tong and Shenzhen Hong Kong link, the gap between the two stock prices will be gradually smoothed out. Investors should beware of the aggravation of this situation next week.

Many people think that the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong will not have a great impact on the trend of A shares. But why is the number of small and medium-sized stocks in A shares less than that of large cap stocks in recent six months?

The rebound in the fourth quarter of this year is due to a variety of reasons. Because of the law of game, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen to 3400 points, which is not impossible.

However, most of these factors will be reversed after January next year, and the stock market will go deep into adjustment.

Therefore, the reduction of stocks by the end of December is a more rational choice. As for individual stocks and varieties, they should be implemented separately according to specific circumstances.