China Retail Market Operation Situation And Investment Strategy Analysis Report

The 2016-2022 year China retail market operation situation and investment strategy research report analyzes the situation of China's retail market in 2016.

1, overall consumption continues to slow down, and social zero and above quota zero growth rate is low.

Affected by the economic slowdown and the clean government policy, the overall growth rate of consumption has been showing a downward trend since 2012. Since 2016, the zero growth rate has remained at a narrow range of 10%-10.5%, increasing by 10.1% in April 2016 compared with the same period in the previous year, and the actual growth rate was 9.3% compared to the same period.

At the same time, the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods above designated size was 6.6%, the growth rate decreased by 2.1%, the lowest level in history. It was mainly affected by the sharp slowdown in sales of petroleum products and automobiles. After excluding oil, construction and automobiles, the nominal growth rate was 9.19%, and the growth rate was 1.72 percentage points higher than that of the previous year.

2, the overall retail trade in real estate has a trend of warmer than ever.

The growth rate of 100 and 50 large retail entities in the whole country has shifted upward from the beginning of 2016 to the present. In April 2016, the growth rate of 100 and 50 large entity retail enterprises reached 1.9% and 2.9% respectively in the year of 2015, and the annulus ratios rose by 4.5 and 5.2 percentage points respectively, reaching a relatively high level since the second half of 2015. It is expected that the consumption of food, household appliances and other products will be stimulated by the impact of high CPI and real estate warming.

Affected by the slowdown in overall consumption, the diversion of electricity providers and cross-border consumption.

Performance is under pressure.

2016Q1 department store business income decreased 0.47% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 7.89 percentage points. General merchandise as a non essential consumer goods channel, income declined by the slowdown in the two quarter of the two quarter. The trend of slowing down since 2010 is mainly due to the high base effect, the diversion of online shopping and the over supply of end department stores and the serious homogenization.

2016Q1 supermarket business income increased 6.05% over the same period last year, the growth rate decreased 0.68 percentage points, down 2.69 percentage points.

As a channel for consumer goods, supermarkets are relatively less affected by economic fluctuations and benefit from increased demand for urbanization. Therefore, income growth is still relatively rigid, despite factors such as the diversion of electricity providers.

We believe that although the economy is at a low stage of stabilization, the growth rate of electricity providers has gradually slowed down, and the marginal impact of the clean government policy has also been weakening for a long time. However, before the new commercial supply continues to increase, and the supply chain and terminal service capabilities have not yet been substantially improved, homogenization competition is intensifying. Leading enterprises are facing the continued influence of new formats and the downward pressure on revenue growth.

At the same time, department stores and supermarkets also face a rigid rise in the cost side, and jointly drive net profit to drop sharply compared to the same period last year.

In the face of huge performance pressure, leading department stores and supermarkets have begun to optimize the supply chain and optimize terminal service capabilities to form two dimensions to enhance differentiation, enhance stock competitiveness and strive to achieve continuous optimization of gross margin and passenger flow.

3, the cash flow of retail listed companies still maintained a net inflow, but net inflow declined.

In 2015, the net cash flow of department stores increased by 1.79% over the same period last year, reversing the downward trend for three consecutive years. The main reason for the decline in cash flow in department stores was the decline in operating income, the increase in cash expenditures for leasing business, the decline in sales of single use commercial prepaid cards, and the shortening of accounts for suppliers.

In 2015, the net cash flow of supermarket activities decreased by 19.27% compared with the same period last year. The decline was narrowed by 8.67% compared with that of last year. The main reason for the decline in cash flow in supermarkets was the decrease in cash receivable received from sales, the decrease in accounts payable, and the increase in operating costs associated with stores.

4, the overall growth rate of electricity providers continued to slow down, while B2C still maintained a high growth rate of over 50%.

In 2016 1-4, the retail sales volume of the whole country was 1 trillion and 400 billion yuan, an increase of 27.5% over the same period, of which 1 trillion and 140 billion of the retail sales of physical commodities increased by 25.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed sharply.

Among them, B2C still maintained a relatively high growth level, 2015Q4 growth rate of 57.01%, accounting for 56.54% of online shopping, indicating that the brand touches the development of online market power is still strong.

The proportion of China's consumption in GDP has exceeded 50% for the first time in nearly ten years, ranking three in the first place.

At the same time, the National Bureau of statistics pointed out that in the first quarter of 2016, the contribution rate of consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 84.7%. The growth rate of China's social zero growth rate will continue to be higher than that of GDP. It will remain unchanged for a certain period of time. It shows that the state is optimistic about the subsequent consumption dynamics in China, which is contrary to the trend of overall consumption slowdown, and its essence lies in the fact that China's new consumption power is yet to be met and optimized.

Specifically, compared with the basic commodities, personalization, high quality, entertainment and other consumption still show high growth.

With the increase of residents' income to a higher level, consumers have more disposable income to pursue higher quality of life after meeting the most basic material needs, satisfy their higher level spiritual needs through various recreational activities, and the new generation's personality needs are enhanced under the influence of multiculturalism in the information society.

Further subdivision, in terms of high quality upgrading, Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory shows that with the improvement of residents' income level and the upgrading of consumption concept, people's pursuit of quality is becoming more urgent, and the higher level consumption demand of cosmetics and medical cosmetology is continuously improving.

After 2010, the per capita disposable income of urban residents reached a US $3000 mark and reached US $5008.51 in 2015.

In terms of entertainment and leisure, more and more Chinese believe that having a happy family is a sign of success in life, which has a profound impact on people's consumption behavior.

In recent years, despite the rapid development of e-commerce, the "shopping and leisure experience" still has enough attraction for consumers. 2/3 of consumers believe that shopping, eating and shopping are the best way to spend time with their families. Consumers who hold this view have increased by 21% compared with three years ago, and shopping centers have become the primary beneficiaries of this trend.

In terms of personalized demand release,

The 80 and 90s generation born after the reform and opening up has a huge population of 416 million people, occupying nearly 1/3 of China's population, and is growing into the main force of China's personalized consumption.

The average knowledge level and the income level of the 80 and 90s are higher than the previous generation, and the age of the great wealth of goods and labor makes the consumption behavior more mature and the consumption demand more complex. The consumer purchase goods are no longer only satisfy the demand for material, but also pay more attention to the personality characteristics of the goods, and hope to show themselves and meet the spiritual satisfaction through shopping.

From the socio cultural perspective, the 80 and 90 years of growing up in the open era have ushered in the Internet era of information explosion in the growth experience. Rich and colorful Internet forums and search engines have set up an information platform that can freely explore and exchange information for people of all kinds of interests, and change the mode of information pmission passively accepted television, radio, newspapers and other limited options, so as to promote social culture to move from single to pluralistic, and gradually make people's consumption demand tend to be personalized.

With the increase of the income level of domestic residents, the demand for improving living standards is becoming increasingly urgent. Consumption upgrading has become a trend. While some domestic products are not yet able to meet the demand for quality consumption, cross-border import electricity suppliers who choose and introduce overseas high-quality brands are directly benefiting from the upgrading of consumption.

The scale of China's cross-border electricity supplier market has increased 4 times in the past 5 years, the compound growth rate has reached 31.95%, and the proportion of import and export trade has increased 3 times in 5 years.

We believe that the cross-border electricity supplier will continue to grow in the overall trade by virtue of its high cost performance, streamlining the trading process, speeding up the speed of information pmission, reducing paction costs and improving the cross border shopping experience of consumers.

Cross border electricity providers not only benefit from the upgrading trend of domestic consumption, but also expand rapidly with the two core strengths of their own low price and category richness.

The advantages of cross border e-commerce providers are mainly based on the combination of two unique attributes of overseas commodities and e-commerce channels. Compared with the past, a large number of brands have not yet entered the domestic consumers' vision due to high cost, category restrictions and so on, while cross-border electricity providers introduce "fresh" categories and brands through their own e-commerce channels and supply chain advantages.

At the same time, because of the huge advantage of unlimited exhibition space compared with traditional retail enterprises, the electricity supplier can give consumers more choices of products and products, and meet the individual needs of consumers at a lower cost.

at present

The commonly used bonded warehouse reserve mode is mainly to import the overseas commodities into the bonded area in the form of general trade, and temporarily store them in bonded warehouses. After the consumers order, the goods are sent from the bonded area warehouses to the consumers through express delivery, and the cross border electricity supplier enterprises declare to the customs and pay customs duties, import value-added tax and consumption tax according to the customs.

The efficiency of direct deliveries from the bonded area warehouse and the cross border electricity providers reduce the increase rate relative to the general import trade streamlined paction links, thus forming the two advantages of the bonded warehouse reserve mode.

From the current category of goods favored by consumers, clothing, shoes, milk powder, cosmetics three categories occupy 3/4 of the market share of Hai Tao consumption.

Among them, milk powder relies on the emergence of a single category, reflecting the lack of quality and safety of mother and baby products at home and abroad. After 80 and 90, the huge demand for high quality maternal and infant products has come into being after the birth boom, while the sales of cosmetics and clothing shoes are dependent on the above cross-border commodity and price advantages.

Up to now, the electricity supplier has gone through the 1 stage and the 2 stage of PC shopping, which is based on the electricity import and export of the mobile terminal APP, and enters the 3 stage of e-commerce shopping.

With the increase of consumer demand for personalized consumption, the new logic of mobile providers is "community traffic - word of mouth promotion - electricity supplier flow", complying with the trend of "de centralization", "fragmentation" and "scenario" shopping. Seeking for a variety of traffic entry at the mobile terminal, creating a specific shopping scenario, emphasizing community interaction and communication, promoting traffic sedimentation, and effectively pforming traffic into repeat buying behavior through the establishment of reputation in the community.

In 2014, the scale of social business has reached 96 billion yuan, and the scale of business has reached 9 million 160 thousand. It is estimated that in 2020, the scale of China's social e-commerce business is 24 million, and the market size will break through trillion. In the next 5 years, the industry will have more than 10 times of expansion space.

At present, the social business is mainly clothing, shoes and hats and cosmetics. In the future, it will expand to mother and baby, food, tourism, e-sports, visual materials and other products.

China's cross-border electricity supplier has become a trend in the proportion of import and export trade. The cross-border e-commerce bonded warehouse is ready for freight pportation.