Stock Financing: The Gap Between The Two Sides Is Increasing.

In the past November, the A share market was warm and full of excitement under multiple positive stimuli. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen stock index rose first and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index hit 3262.88 points in the intraday market. The Shenzhen stock index touched 11041.52 points in the market, breaking through the 10 month high of last week's two Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.

The largest single day turnover in the two cities was about 679 billion 900 million yuan, and the two balance exceeded 960 billion yuan.

Cautious investors may cash in before December, while at the same time, the balance between the two cities will gradually enlarge.

What will happen in December?

No matter how the market goes, investors need to take advantage of the situation and change because of time, so that they will not be able to take time off and hold the fruits of the "red November quotes".

Insiders said that the arrival of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, the operation can focus on small and medium prices.

Potential share.

Shanghai index: the world's third largest monthly increase

Statistics show that as of November 25th, the three index of the S & P, NASDAQ and Dow Jones in the Americas market rose by 4.10%, 4.04% and 5.57% respectively, breaking through the all-time high, while the Brazil stock market fell 5.18%.

In the European stock market, the French CAC40 index and the German DAX30 index edged up 0.80% and 0.32% respectively, while the British Financial Times Index dropped 1.80% slightly.

In the Asia Pacific market, the Korean component index edged down 1.68%, Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 5.49%, the Indonesian stock market fell 5.55% leading the world, the Taiwan China's weighted index and the Hang Seng Index of Hongkong, China fell by 1.41% and 0.92% respectively.

In the same period, the performance of China's stock market did not disappoint A share investors, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.21% in the month, second only to the US Dow Jones index and the Nikkei 225 index, ranking third in the world.

In addition, the Shenzhen composite index, the SME board and the growth enterprise board rose by 3.10%, 2.46% and 2.58% respectively, ranking the upper and middle levels in the world's major indexes.

From the perspective of stocks, only 738 stocks in the two cities have fallen, and more than 20% of shares have fallen only in the outdoors of Sanfo. Up to 2095 stocks have risen, and 28 stocks have risen by more than 100%, all of which are sub new shares.

If the group of new shares is deducted, the biggest increase in stocks this month is the pformation of high-end manufacturing equipment to "Xinjiang urban construction" (up 77.41%), followed by Shanghai Phoenix and Sanjiang shopping.

After the warm November quotes, the upcoming end of December will be the end of the battle.

According to historical data, the ratio of the number of ups and down times in December in the past 26 years is just 13:13, so the interpretation of December quotations is obviously difficult to follow as well as in November.

But for the December market, as a bearish representative, Wang Nan, senior investor of Anxin securities, believes that the four cold spell will soon invade A shares: first, the Fed's interest rate hike is expected; two, the result of the Italy referendum may cause a concussion to the euro zone; three, there are multiple pressures on the market capital side, and four, the potential risk of technological side may be further increased.

Multiparty: changing the market constantly

Among the many brokerage firms, Galaxy Securities is the most representative.

Tang Hewen, deputy general manager of galaxy securities, said: "investors are more cautious about the market in December.

The shadow of the stock market crash caused by the increase in interest rate is 3, but this year's situation is different from that of last year. After all, since March this year, the profits are getting heavier and heavier, but the market's immunity against bad profits is getting stronger and stronger.

We know that there are three ways to resolve the pressure caused by the Black Swan: first, to release the risk ahead of time and release the risk of negative pressure. The two is to take measures before the attack is launched, and three is to let the ferment wait for the most difficult period to save the market.

As a result, although the bearish weight has been increasing since March, the stock market has been steadily rising, which is closely related to the risk of sharp release of the three rounds of stock market crash, the reduction of the central bank's interest rate and liquidity, and the reform of the supply side.

Therefore, according to this idea, for these 4 so-called bad profits, there are some bad ways to deal with, and some bad profits have nothing to do with A shares.

On the whole, market opportunities outweigh risks in December. Bad profits will help to clean up the underlying chips and absorb the pressure above the market, without changing the overall upward trend of the stock market.

Especially noteworthy is that some bulky blue chip stocks have broken through a record high. Opening up space means that the market index has little room to fall.

Four major focus of institutional PK

Empty side

Focus 1 Fed rate hike expectations

There is no suspense in raising interest rates.

The market will be under great pressure.

Reason: Wang Nan, senior investor of Anxin securities, said that Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen made clear in the Joint Economic Committee of the United States Congress that the relatively fast increase of interest rates may be appropriate, and the delay in raising interest rates for too long may lead to additional risks.

The recent wage growth is on the rise, and the job market is expected to further improve. CME has shown that the rate of increase in December is 90.6%. That is to say, in December, the Fed raised interest rates basically without suspense. The key is to add 0.25 or 0.5.

At present, the market generally believes that the rate hike is 0.25%, but once the expected increase of 0.5 in December, the market will bear enormous pressure.

Multiparty

Shenzhen Hong Kong inject fresh "blood"

Decompression for the two level market

Reason: Tang Hewen, deputy general manager of galaxy securities, believes that Shenzhen and Hong Kong are facing the global scope compared with the Shanghai and Hong Kong's mainland counterparts.

Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong has been postponed from September to December 5th. An important reason is waiting for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates.

From the practical results of Shanghai and Hong Kong, the value of investment in international capital does not necessarily depend on the long-term trend of good stocks, nor is it fully optimistic about the so-called undervalued blue chips in A shares. What is more concerned is the growth potential of enterprises.

From this point of view, Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is optimistic about the development prospects of small and medium board GEM listed companies, which is like injecting fresh blood, which will greatly reduce the pressure on the two tier market caused by the Fed's interest rate hike.

Focus 2 referendum on constitutional amendment in Italy

It's possible to get rid of Europe.

Impact on the market

Reason: Wang Nan, senior investor of Anxin securities, believes that the current series of reform policies of Italy's prime minister Lenzi has been resisted at the political level. In this context, a referendum was held in December 4th.

If the referendum is passed smoothly, it will be conducive to Italy's political and economic stability, the bad debts of banks, the merger and reorganization, the reform and progress, and the gradual growth of the economy.

On the contrary, the failure of the referendum may lead to political instability, early elections, the rise of populism, the increased debt burden, the downgrading of banking and sovereign debt, and even the risk of Italy's withdrawal from Europe.

According to the latest polls, the opposition's leading edge is about 10%, and the risk of reform failure should not be underestimated.

Once the referendum is not passed, Italy is likely to be out of Europe. As an important member of the euro area, its influence is much greater than that of the British referendum. After all, the relationship between Britain's independent currency and the euro area is not so close.

There will be shocks in foreign trade.

But the negative impact is limited.

Reasons: some people believe that, as a member of the euro area, once the Italy referendum is removed from Europe, its negative impact is much less than that of the United Kingdom. Once the euro zone really disintegrates, it will have a concussion on China's international trade, but it will not be a good thing for Chinese enterprises to lose a strong competitive opponent. Even if there is a shock, it can also resolve this pressure by expanding domestic demand, let alone the strategy of "one belt and one belt", so Italy can hardly ignore Europe.

Focus 3 market capital side

A share market faces three pressures

Reason: Wang Nan, senior investor of Anxin securities, believes that first, in December this year, the market will face the lifting of the market value of the restricted stock of 365 billion 300 million yuan, and the lifting of the market value in January next year will be as high as 435 billion 600 million yuan.

The lifting of the market value of up to 800 billion 900 million yuan in two months is obviously not enough to resolve this enormous pressure.

Secondly, at the end of the year, the checkout of all trades and professions, especially at the end of the year, and at the end of the year, the banks will also have greater pressure on the capital side.

Finally, reintroducing the registration system and IPO acceleration will undoubtedly further pressure the financial sector.

Property market funds to fight stock market hedge capital pressure

Reason: Tang Hewen, deputy general manager of galaxy securities, believes that after more than 20 cities' property market regulation in October, the stock market attacked from 3000 points all the way. In November 23rd, the Shanghai Composite Index hit the highest point of 3262.88 points this year, and the increase is close to 10%.

Funds such as trickle are flowing into the stock market. At present, the margin of A shares is more than 960 billion yuan, which is about 100 billion higher than that before the housing market regulation.

At the same time, data show that over the past two months, more than 100 million or more households have increased, and the increase is more obvious.

All this shows that real estate funds have signs of turning to the stock market. As long as the real estate regulation is not relaxed or even more severe, it is worth expecting that speculative funds continue to move to the stock market.

Focus 4 market technology

If it falls below 3130 points

Falling space is unfathomable.

Reasons: from a technical point of view, the upward slope of the stock index is relatively slow, but the quantity can be released faster; and the recent rise slope is obviously steep, but the amount of energy is relatively shrinking, forming a short-term deviation.

And from the national day market performance, the overall stage rose little, but the amount of energy amplification is obvious, indicating that many funds take advantage of the rebound in the market.

In addition, the 20 month moving average, the 90 week average and the 500 day moving average all converge in the 3300-3400 interval, and the two sides have been fighting 6 times in the history. Each corresponds to the bottom or the top of the middle and long term.

So theoretically, we should pay close attention to the two time windows of December 5th and 15. After all, this is a series of bad concentrated bombing, which is different from the previous one after another.

Once the adjustment is started here, we must pay attention to the two important defense lines, 3200 points and 3130 points.

If it falls below 3130 points, then the drop space is unfathomable.

Reform stimulates vitality

Technical pressure can resolve itself.

Reason: 3300~3450 point is a famous prison camp in history.

At present, the 30 minute and 60 minute technical indicators of Shanghai stock index have been overbought.

In this case, if we want to make the "eating quotes" more sustainable, we must take the initiative to recuperate and correct some of the technical indicators of overbought signs. The general 60 minute level of rest will not exceed 1 weeks.

However, if the Bulls go all the way to the 3300~3450 point area, the next adjustment may evolve into the daily line level, and the adjustment time and the adjustment depth will also extend correspondingly.

The most important point is that reform and pformation have been the driving force for market development in the past 4 years.

The vitality of the supply side reform, the reform of state-owned enterprises and the penetration of new industries into the real economy has just begun.

The macroeconomic factor, the key factor determining the ups and downs of the stock market, has been on the rise. Next, the central economic work conference in mid December will also set the tone for monetary policy and economic work in the coming year. Some policies will also bring more opportunities to the market.

Overall, we believe that the market fluctuation range in December is between 3200~3450.

Operation, from a short-term perspective, pay attention to cyclical blue chips, especially underestimate the investment opportunities of the value banks and securities sectors in the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, especially the cash flow dividends or large increase in the stock market; from the perspective of the midline, December will be a good opportunity for the winter sowing. We may plan ahead for the next spring market. Especially after the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, small and medium-sized innovative economic subject stocks with relatively low valuation and high pfer potential are worth digging. The main targets are new industries such as information technology, health care, energy conservation and environmental protection, and new energy vehicles.