Domestic Cotton And Cotton Yarn Market Stabilizes And International Cotton Prices Continue To Fall

This week, the international cotton price oscillation fell.

In December 2nd, New York cotton futures contract settlement price in December was 71.98 cents / pound, down 0.67 cents / pound, or 0.92%, compared with last week.

The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is calculated at 1% tariffs. The import cost of the folded renminbi is 14007 yuan / ton, down 223 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 1.57%, lower than the domestic market 1889 yuan / ton, and the price difference expanded 269 yuan / ton compared with last week.

domestic

Short term or continuous adjustment.

On the macro side, the PMI index in November was high and the short-term economic outlook was good.

In November, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from last month, continuing upward trend to a high level in two years.

Judging from the classification index, the production index was 53.9%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month, rising for 4 consecutive months, continuing to be above the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production continued to accelerate; the new order index was 53.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, rising for two consecutive months.

Above the critical point, it shows that the manufacturing market demand keeps growing; the stock index of raw materials is 48.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, still below the critical point, indicating that the main raw material inventory of the manufacturing industry has narrowed narrowing; the supplier delivery time index is 49.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, below the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of the manufacturing raw material supplier has slowed down.

In addition, the central bank's open market this week accumulated a net investment of 70 billion yuan, an increase of 30 billion yuan compared with last week.

In terms of fundamentals, new cotton picking and acquisition are coming to an end.

As of December 2nd, the total sales of 1 million 130 thousand tons of lint were reduced by 211 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

Recently, the shortage of pport capacity of Xinjiang cotton has gradually eased, and the ginning factory has begun to increase the sales of lint. The price of Xinjiang storehouse has been stable and the price has been loosened.

Xinjiang warehouse "double 28B, double 29B" cotton gross weight price is 15600-15800 yuan / ton, 15300-15500 yuan / ton; inland library "double 28B, double 29B" gross weight price is 16400-16600 yuan / ton, 16000-16300 yuan / ton, the real estate cotton wool weight price is 15400-15800 yuan / ton, processing enterprises choose multiple price.

The price of downstream pure cotton yarn has gone up slightly.

The main purpose is to continue to buy and buy.

Technically, this week's main cotton contract (CF1705) trend is weak, the 5 day moving average blocked down, the recent need to pay attention to 20 and 40 day moving average support.

Short term or continuation of the oscillation adjustment is expected.

To sum up, although the shortage of pport capacity of Xinjiang cotton has eased, the overall pport volume is still small. It is expected that domestic cotton prices will continue to oscillate in the short term.

International cotton prices will continue to be vulnerable to adjustment.

On the macro side, the US non farm employment data in November are basically consistent with expectations.

In November, the number of non farm workers in the United States increased by 178 thousand, slightly lower than expected. The unemployment rate in the United States in November was 4.6%, reaching a low level in 9 years. Before and after the publication of the data, the market expected the highest rate of increase in the Federal Reserve in December.

On the 30 day, OPEC reached a freeze production agreement at the Vienna meeting, and crude oil prices rose.

Fundamentals, international

According to the monthly report released by the Advisory Committee, global cotton production in 2016/17 is expected to grow at 22 million 500 thousand tons, up 7% over the same period last year, and consumption is expected to be stable at 24 million 200 thousand tons, exceeding the output of 1 million 700 thousand tons.

According to the US Department of agriculture report, on November 18-24, the net contract volume of US cotton exports in 2016/17 was 45 thousand and 900 tons, 21% less than that of the previous week, and the 2016/17 cotton land pport volume was 29 thousand and 800 tons, a decrease of 1% over the previous week.

This week, the average price of M spot in the seven largest markets in the United States was 74.22 cents / pound, down 0.61 cents / pound compared with the previous week.

This week, the impact of India's monetary policy has been gradually eased, and India's cotton prices are relatively stable.

In December 1st, the price of S-6 cotton in India was 72.93 cents / pound (calculated at 1% tariffs, 12645 yuan / ton), which rose 0.05 cents / pound, or 0.07%, compared with last week. Pakistan's domestic cotton price is 74.01 cents / pound (the import cost of 12828 yuan / ton is calculated by 1% tariff), which is 1.98 cents higher than last week, or 2.74%.

Technically speaking, this week's ICE cotton futures contract (March contract) oscillates downward, testing the support force of the 20 day moving average, or will continue the weak oscillation in the short term.

In conclusion, international cotton prices are expected to be adjusted in the short term or weak.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.