How Will The Future Of Cotton Market Evolve?

According to the NDRC, the new cotton market will not be arranged during the new cotton market this year.

From next March 6th to the end of August, the sale of national cotton stores will be 30 thousand tons per day.

In this way, the reserves can be up to 3 million 600 thousand tons in 6 months.

According to the consumption of 650 thousand tons per month, from March to the end of August, the purchase volume of textile enterprises should be 3 million 900 thousand tons in 6 months.

The total supply (new cotton pfer + maximum dumping) can be 5 million 570 thousand tons and 1 million 670 thousand tons more.

It can be seen that supply is adequate during this period.

At present, Zheng cotton presents high oscillation, which is both the peak season of consumption and the harvest season.

However, adequate supply will still return to people's perspective.

According to the demand of 650 thousand tons per month, from November to the end of next February, 4 tons of new cotton will be consumed in 2 million 600 thousand months, not counting hundreds of thousands of tons of imported cotton.

At that time, about 1 million 970 thousand tons of new cotton were pferred to March (production and consumption) and sold together with the national cotton store.

The supply will be quite adequate next March.

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At the point of view, the winter is the purchasing season; but by May, the pressure on the loan repayment is greater, and the enterprise will accelerate the sale of cotton.

Judging from the seasonal law of planting, USDA will announce the intention of planting cotton in the northern hemisphere in March 30th, and will actually sow in 4-5. In June 30th, USDA will officially announce the actual planting area.

The 5-9 month will be a critical period for cotton growth in the northern hemisphere.

It is foreseeable that there are two critical events to note during this period.

1, the cotton planting area speculation.

If it increases, it will have little effect on the market; if it decreases, the market will easily rise and fall.

2. Weather speculation during the growth period.

This is the annual factor.

If the climate is unfavorable, or cause a larger increase.

However, there is also a seemingly unrelated macro factor that will dominate the cotton market in the second half of the year.

This is the US dollar entering a strong cycle.

The US dollar index is rising for a long time, which will trigger the return of golden ball capital to the United States, and will also lead to the financial crisis of emerging markets.

In addition to the US, other economies will face economic recession and financial crisis.

Therefore, this will be pmitted to the cotton market or to a deep pit of cotton prices.

Due to the limited global cotton growing area, especially China, plus

A steady recovery can be expected: China will make up 3 million tons of demand every year.

This will lead to an annual decline in global inventories, especially in China.

"Going out of stock" will be the theme of the next 3-5 years. The shortage of supply will dominate the bull market in the coming years.

As far as inventory is concerned, inventory in the world and China is still huge, and "de Stocking" is a long process. Therefore, cotton prices will follow seasonal pattern and China's

And ups and downs.

Next year, the possibility of a global financial crisis in emerging markets will be higher, as the US dollar enters the interest rate cycle, but any deep fall will create a good opportunity for strategic investment intervention.

We speculate: the next time the cotton boom will still fall in the autumn, the global inventory / consumption ratio will drop to 50%, and the price will not rise above the previous high point.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.