November Chemical Fiber Plate Rose: Do Not Rule Out A Small Exploratory Trial Operation

In November, there were 12 kinds of commodities in the 14 kinds of products of the chemical fiber board. Among them, the top 3 of the products were 3 of the top 3, respectively, nylon 3 (17.84%), nylon POY (11.92%), and nylon (7.09%).

There are only 2 kinds of goods falling in chain ratio, which are viscose staple fiber (-6.72%) and spandex (-0.38%).

Upstream cotton lint prices remain high, cost side support is relatively strong, viscose or with the cost may be upward, but because the industry is not much sign, and there is still a pressure to go out of stock, the viscose factory price increase operation is more cautious, so the viscose staple fiber market in December will be dominated by stability.

With the help of cost in November, the market trend of chemical fiber board was obvious, especially the good performance of various products in the nylon industry chain, and the strong impetus of the polyester and acrylic market.

After entering December, the cost will continue to support the chemical fiber market, and will be affected by the low level of its own products.

But in the late ten days, the domestic and foreign end textile enterprises will enter the off-season of purchasing, and at the same time can not bear the crazy price of raw materials, there is the possibility of early shutdown, then the demand face will gradually shrink.

And from the perspective of the entire textile industry, the textile export situation is still grim.

To sum up, the textile market is expected to rise first and then fall in December, and the textile index is expected to reach a maximum of 870 points, with a minimum of 840 points.

The overall growth of chemical fiber plate in November is obvious, of which nylon short fiber is gaining momentum.

By the end of 30, the mainstream price of nylon staple 1.5D in China has been reported to 16780 yuan / ton, up more than 17% from the beginning of the month, reaching a new high in the year, up 4.74% over the same period.

Since the beginning of this year, the market of nylon staple fiber has been dropping down for 13800 yuan / ton in the middle of July, a record low of nearly 5 years.

After entering a small rebound, after 8, 9, October, after a smooth adjustment, the market broke out in November.

The main reasons are: first, the price of benzene continues to rise, and the cost boosts the whole industry chain.

Especially in November, the price of benzene increased by more than 15%.

Manufacturers also actively followed up, the solid market (low-end goods) price in the vicinity of 14500-15500 yuan / ton, 2500-3500 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the month, and some manufacturers even closed the market near the end of the month.

Secondly, the supply of caprolactam is short.

In November, there was partial supply gap, low inventory of manufacturers, under the pressure of cost, short stop, and tight spot market supply, resulting in rapid market upward.

Finally, the downstream demand for the terminal knitwear market has been slightly stretched, and production and marketing has remained stable, of which 3-5 of the round machine lace wrapping field has been started, and the warp knitting empty package still starts to be 7 of the supporting demand nearby.

Affected by the tight supply of pure benzene and caprolactam, the cost side will remain high.

Downstream demand is currently available, but in mid December, with the advent of new year's day and Spring Festival,

The market will shrink, and there will be a risk of market fall. Overall, the nylon market is expected to rise first and then fall in December.

By the end of November 30th, the polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the mainstream polyester factory POY150D/48F reported 7650-7860 yuan / ton, DTY150D/48F (low elastic) reported 9300-9500 yuan / ton, FDY150D/96F reported 8100-8400 yuan / ton.

The upstream PTA spot price was quoted at 4959 yuan / ton at the end of 11 month, rising by 3.38% in the month, and the PTA futures once rushed to 5360 yuan / ton due to the active fund in the commodity market.

During the month, Jiaxing Petrochemical 1 million 500 thousand ton / year device accident and Helen Petrochemical 1 million 200 thousand ton / year device jump short stop, and so on, PTA supply and demand fundamentals showed a tight pattern, at the same time by the implementation of crude oil production is expected to heat up, driving oil prices skyrocketing, to boost PTA prices.

The domestic glycol market has increased by more than 18% since October.

Polyester filament is upsurged by upstream PTA and ethylene glycol, and the factory stock of polyester filament is low, and the load is high.

Xia Ting believes that some parts of the PTA plant are being stopped for maintenance. It is estimated that the supply side of PTA will still drop, especially at the cost side.

And polyester plant started relatively stable, loom operating rate also maintained high, polyester factory inventory level is still low.

However, the terminal downstream construction will gradually decline along with the coming of the off-season.

Supported by raw material costs, short-term supply is tight, and prices are expected to keep warm in December, but the risk of weakness will start in late.

Viscose market in November is at the end of the list, of which viscose staple fiber 1.5D mainstream specifications for 30 days at 15400 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the month 16510 yuan / ton decline of 6.72%, an increase of 6.45% over the same period.

Viscose staple fiber bottomed at the beginning of this year, and then began to rebound, especially in the early July began the rapid stretching mode, which lasted until the end of September, breaking 17110 yuan / ton high, hitting a new high of 5.

Then after a brief concussion at the high level, it opened a down channel in mid October and continued to go down in November.

The main reasons are: first, viscose staple fiber is not cold at high altitude. Viscose staple fiber has been at a historical high level after rapid stretching since July. It began to fall in late October. The price of 16510 yuan / ton is still at a historical high price, and the low price is in line with the basic law.

Second, high inventory and low demand for downstream demand.

Since November, manufacturers' inventory is at a high level, the downstream textile industry has been in the off-season, demand power is obviously insufficient, and the phenomenon of market oversupply is widespread.

Finally, there is a lack of confidence in the market.

Since the end of October, viscose staple fiber prices have continued to decline, while downstream cotton yarns are keeping up with the opening of the down channel, while the upper pulp staple continues to increase inertia.

Viscose staple fiber market panic mentality spreads, the empty sentiment is rich.

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