TPP In Death Sentence Is Still To Be Observed.

On November 9th, Donald Trump, who was elected president of the United States in November 9th, made an informal announcement on the 21 day that he will launch the policy within a hundred days after taking office.

Much attention has been paid to the declaration of intent to withdraw from the p Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP).

In the short video, Trump reiterated the slogan he constantly emphasized in his campaign speech, putting the interests of the United States first.

He will

It is called "a potential threat to the United States" and it says that "fair negotiations on bilateral trade agreements will be launched to let work and industry return to the United States" instead.

As we all know, TPP gives the member countries huge investment and trade convenience, and at the same time, it also causes the member groups to have natural exclusiveness in terms of trade and investment, and the economies including China may be under some pressure in terms of exports and investment.

For China's textile industry, it will also force a part.

The company moved the factory to TPP country.

Generally speaking, TPP will have an impact on China's trade and exports and national income, which may lead to a decrease in employment and an industrial loss.

This time, Trump will TPP into the "cold palace". Can TPP's trade shackles on Chinese textiles be opened?

TPP is one of the strategies that Obama fully promoted. He was once called the fulcrum of the United States' strategy of "turning to Asia".

TPP (Trans-PacificPartnershipAgreement), known as the p Pacific Partnership Agreement, basically covers most of the countries that surround the Pacific, including America, Canada, Mexico, Chile and Peru in the Americas, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Australia and New Zealand in Asia and Oceania.

The total economic volume of these 12 countries account for 40% of the global economy, and the goal of TPP is to reduce tariffs among member countries and promote trade liberalization, so that commodities can be circulated among Member States more quickly and cheaply.

Among the provisions of the TPP, the most notable clause is "zero tariff" - the principle of TPP requires the cancellation of import duties on all goods when trade between Member States is required.

For example, according to the TPP regulations, all processes and raw material production after the start of yarn from textile products must be carried out within TPP members to enjoy 12 domestic zero tariff treatment.

Non TPP member countries will be impacted by trade diversion effect, and the biggest impact will be China.

Vietnam has been seen as the main beneficiary of TPP, especially the textile and garment industry.

At the beginning of this year, the World Bank predicted that by 2030, TPP will increase the average GDP of member countries by 1.1 percentage points.

Among them, Vietnam's GDP will increase by 10%, and exports will increase by 30% to become a big winner.

In this sense, the TPP agreement is not good news for China's economy and even for the textile industry.

But in fact, China has been trying to reach different trade agreements with some countries participating in TPP in order to expand China's influence.

For example, China has signed bilateral trade agreements with many TPP members, such as South Korea and Australia, which will gradually achieve trade liberalization and zero tariffs, thereby reducing or countering the negative impact of TPP on China.

In particular, with the expansion of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone pilot, the "regional comprehensive economic partnership" negotiations and the steady development of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area and the continuous development of the "one belt and one way" construction, China has shown a deep, high level and omni-directional foreign trade opening pattern, and even TPP has limited influence on China's textile industry.

But there is no doubt that if the TPP agreement is aborted, the negative impact of China will be significantly reduced, and it will also avoid the possible economic losses that may be excluded.

It is noteworthy that the stranding of the TPP may enhance the influence of such agreements as the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP), and China has always been a staunch supporter of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area.

The temporary stranding of TPP has provided an opportunity for China to take the initiative to promote the integration of regional economies. More APEC members have turned to support the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP), and have brought new opportunities for the smooth progress of their negotiations.

At present, Malaysia, Australia, Peru and New Zealand have made it clear that if TPP is aborted, they will focus on RCEP in the future, and Peru has even proposed applying for joining RCEP, intending to become a member of the first Latin American country.

It is foreseeable that the continuous promotion of RCEP will continuously enhance China's influence on trade liberalization in the Asia Pacific region and even the whole world, and ultimately contribute to the realization of the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP) through the RCEP path.

Still hidden trouble in China

TPP in death sentence is still to be observed.

Liu Yaozhong, deputy director of the Ministry of trade and investment promotion of the China Council for international trade promotion, said in an interview with reporters that although the Trump team had renounces the TPP, it is still not yet clear that the follow-up effect of China's p Pacific free trade negotiations will not be completely ruled out in the new form or face.

At present, the global demand is obviously sluggish, and all countries are in the "shopping" order.

The fluctuation of exchange rate has great influence on competitiveness.

Over the past one or two months, the impact of the exchange rate on China's textile and garment industry has been more direct under the combined influence of the stronger US dollar and the devaluation of the RMB against the US dollar.

The United States is still a very important export market for China's textile industry. But Trump advocated the return of manufacturing industry, and even advocated that China should be included in the manipulator of currency manipulation, adding 45% tariff to imported goods from China.

Because of its special competitiveness, it deserves special attention.

In addition, TPP's "reprieve" has obviously led many enterprises to take a wait-and-see attitude, which will bring some negative effects on the investment and trade of Vietnam's textile industry.

In contrast to the TPP agreement, the textile and garment enterprises based on China's production base have been going to Vietnam to expand production and pfer industries to cope with the rising labor costs in China.

In particular, leading enterprises such as Tianhong textile, Rutai textile, Bailong orient and Huafu color spinning have a certain capacity layout in Vietnam.

Now, as the US withdraws from the TPP agreement, it is estimated that the relevant listed companies in the near future will be faced with the practical problems of decreasing order quantity and declining profitability. Therefore, in view of the major difficulties and problems of TPP and the current textile and garment industry, the industry must take the initiative to find solutions and breakthroughs.

Jiangsu Zhuo Tai smile art home marketing Limited by Share Ltd started the layout of Chile early this year. Chile is a member of the TPP agreement and is one of the important factors for its reference.

However, Pan Lijun, chief executive of the company's brand, told reporters that no matter whether TPP was stranded, it would not have a greater impact on the established strategy of the company.

Because in essence, the biggest driving force for the company to enter the South American market is to expand its brand. Chile itself is an important commodity and logistics distribution center in the South American continent, and is very important in the company's foreign trade structure.

Wang Wen, executive director of Chongyang Finance Research Institute, Renmin University of China, does not believe that the withdrawal of the US will be entirely beneficial to China.

Wang Wen believes that the US withdrawal from the TPP has two major impacts. First, it has changed the global expectation of the development trend of international trade. The two major trade games, led by the United States and the free trade zone led by China, are expected to change.

In the future global trade, Trump may launch a new policy to make global trade more uncertain.

Two, China's development is in a critical period of opportunities and challenges. China's challenge to the uncertain international situation in the new era of TPP pformation is very great. The original TPP countries' demands for China will also continue to increase. Apart from enhancing China's trade rights, it will also increase China's responsibilities and burdens in the global trading system.

China has a scale of 10 trillion GDP, and is the first big country in the trade of goods. The huge market makes it difficult for any country to put it outside.

In fact, the textile industry as part of the labor-intensive industry, even without TPP's pursuit, with the disappearance of China's demographic dividend and the pformation and upgrading of China's labor intensive industries, "going out" is also the trend of the times. Only under the backdrop of TPP's "army's pressing", the topic of "going out" has become more urgent and meaningful.

TPP is not dead, but it may be like a purgatory.

Although the US withdrawing from the TPP will certainly have some pressure relief effect on China, it remains to be seen whether Trump will introduce any measures to safeguard the interests of the United States in the Asia Pacific and even the international community after announcing its withdrawal from the TPP.

Reactions from different countries

TPP can not be passed in the United States. The biggest beneficiary may be China.

JonLieber, the head of the world's largest political risk consulting firm, Eurasian Group, pointed out that the focus of TPP is entirely in China. The United States is trying to build a regional trade bloc, projecting American influence in the Asia Pacific region as a fort to resist China's influence.

But in the future, TPP's partner countries may turn their attention to China and the second largest economies in the world.

From Trump's withdrawal from TPP to now only a month, what reactions and actions have been made by TPP's partners?

{page_break}

New Zealand: New Zealand Prime Minister John Ki said that if Trump gave up TPP, he would open the door to China.

"The whole meaning of TPP lies in the United States showing its leadership in the Asia Pacific region," he said.

We like to see the United States in the region.

But if the United States withdraws, this gap needs to be filled and will be filled by China. "

Malaysia: Mustafa, Minister of international trade and industry of Malaysia, said that Trump's position was "disappointing" to the Malaysian government. Under the background of TPP's hopeless vision, the basic government of the Malaysian government is being hit.

Horse officials say that TPP may abort and will seek other possibilities, including focusing on China led RCEP.

Vietnam: Vietnamese Prime Minister Ruan Chunfu has made it clear that the Congress will not consider the TPP because it does not have the basis for deliberation.

At the same time, Ruan Chunfu said that based on political changes after the US election, the Vietnamese government will stop seeking to promote congressional approval of the US led p Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP).

Peru: the Peru government announced that it had begun negotiations with China on the accession to the RCEP.

Canada news network quoted the voice of Germany Chinese network reported that the Pacific strategy is the national policy of Peru. In the background of the US led TPP may abort, in order to open up other outlets, Peru decided to close to the RCEP advocated by China.

Australia: Australian Trade Minister Steve Chobot said Australia never put eggs in one basket.

Australia is participating in the RCEP negotiations. It is an important agreement that the countries involved in RCEP negotiations have 50% of the world's population and 30% of the world's GDP.

Any measures to reduce trade barriers, promote trade, promote exports and promote economic growth and employment are a step in the right direction.

Japan: Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo said that the Pacific Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) would be meaningless without us participation.

TPP is not only a regional economic integration issue for Japan, but also an important tool and carrier for Japan's pursuit of international discourse power and influence, and checks and balances with China.

Andouble reiterated that the approval process will be promoted in this Congress. Meanwhile, Andouble stressed that "while approving the Congress and showing Japan's strong determination to the world, we will continue to unswervingly emphasize the significance of TPP to the United States."

Singapore: Singapore fears that the failure of TPP will become the symbol of the withdrawal of the us from the Asia Pacific region.

The reason why Singapore wants to leave the US in the Asia Pacific region is to achieve its strategic intentions by catering to and matching the goals of the United States.

According to the world clothing and shoe net, Singaporean Prime Minister Li Xianlong said in a previous interview that after a preliminary estimate of TPP came into effect, Singapore could save about 1 billion yuan a year in tariffs.

HSBC said TPP could bring Singapore's GDP growth of 3%.

Jiangsu Zhuo Tai smile art home marketing Limited by Share Ltd

Pan Lijun, director of brand business:

Happyhome began to deploy Chile from the beginning of the year. Chile is an important member of the TPP agreement.

At the same time, we bought a production factory in Chile, so that the products of our company exported Chile to many countries in South America.

At present, the stranding of TPP will not have a greater impact on the established strategy of the company.

Because in essence, the biggest driving force for the company to enter the South American market is to expand its brand. Chile itself is an important commodity and logistics distribution center in the South American continent, and is very important in the company's foreign trade structure.

No matter how the trade rules change, the fundamental support of textile enterprises is still in itself.

After years of development, Happyhome has gradually pformed from ODM to build its own brand. In terms of operation, it adheres to the concept of "small factories and big trade", carries out light asset operation, and concentrates its core competitiveness in R & D and design fields.

He is confident that with his own strength, he will be able to "go out" faster and better.

Meng Xuefeng, director of Development Department of Zhejiang Hua Xue Textile Co., Ltd.

As a new international trade rule, although the TPP agreement has been stranded at present, there are many ways and means for us to meddle in Global trade.

Whether or not TPP, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries compete with China in manufacturing, especially textile and other low-end manufacturing industries, the trend of industrial pfer has long been apparent.

Even without the TPP agreement, Southeast Asian and South Asian countries will become the global industrial pfer destination by virtue of low cost.

However, the impact of the TPP agreement on China's economy is manifold. The implementation of TPP will make the Chinese government more resolute to revitalize the domestic economy. Therefore, there are bound to be lots of investment opportunities in related industries and sectors, which will increase domestic employment, and will also promote economic development of China's domestic entities, thereby strengthening the stability of China's economy.

Wu Huizhong, general manager of Shaoxing BAOYING Textile Co., Ltd.

If TPP stops, it will be a great benefit to China's textile foreign trade enterprises.

Many customers now locate factories and processing plants in Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, India or Burma, but the medium and low-grade products will become more and more difficult in China. After all, whether they are labor costs or raw material costs, these countries are lower than domestic ones, while the high-end products do not have 5~10 years of development, and it is difficult to form a mature industrial chain. Therefore, ultimately, foreign trade enterprises want to develop or upgrade products and take middle and high grade routes.

From this perspective, if TPP stops, a lot of capital may go to domestic enterprises to upgrade products, so I think it is a great advantage.

In addition, the depreciation of RMB is also good for textile foreign trade enterprises.

Some orders are not very profitable at the beginning, but because the RMB has been depreciating, the profit may increase by 1% or even 2% when the money is received, so sometimes the business will take orders.

Orders have increased and more opportunities.

Viewpoints

Niu Li, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the National Information Center.

The most obvious change in the pattern of trade is the division of the global economic situation and policy differentiation, especially with the European Union and the US general election as the symbol. Global trade protectionism, isolationism and populism are gradually rising.

Today, not only the WTO negotiations in Doha have been ignored, but even the TPP, the main American push, has announced that Trump will withdraw.

China's main regional economic partnership and the free trade zone under APEC are still striving to advance. This is the global pattern of trade in the coming years.

On the whole, the emerging developing countries' status is rising. As a watershed, the special financial crisis is G7 before the crisis. After the financial crisis, it has developed to G20, that is, the 20 heads of state, to pull the major developing powers to solve the main problems of the world.

In particular, China's position in many fields has risen sharply.

Including in the world bank, in recent years, our voting power has been upgraded. Even the senior vice president, vice president and chief economist are all Chinese.

In addition, the Asian investment bank, APEC and SCO, which are mainly promoted by the Chinese people, have developed rapidly and have a great impetus to the world.

{page_break}

Mei Xin Yu, a researcher at the Chinese Ministry of Commerce,

The failure of TPP will enhance the attractiveness of RCEP, and will promote the FTA between China, Japan and Korea as soon as possible, and enrich and upgrade the China South Korea Free Trade Area and the China ASEAN Free Trade Area.

If TPP fails, it will eliminate the pressure of China and Japan to "encircle" China's pressure. To a certain extent, it also relieves the pressure of Vietnam and other countries to occupy the market share of China's traditional labor-intensive industries through TPP.

China is firm in its efforts to promote free trade and is consistent in its words and deeds.

After Trump entered the White House, the United States will enter a strategic contraction period, and Global trade is facing a high degree of uncertainty.

Whether for national interests or international interests, China's components and status in the global free trade system will increase during the period.

Considering that Trump has repeatedly declared that he wants to break the free trade agreement which is harmful to the interests of the American people and has declared that he wants to withdraw from the TPP, the possibility of us joining the Asia Pacific free trade area is very small.

He Weiwen, deputy director of China and global think tank,

TPP's stranding is a double-edged sword for China.

On the one hand, TPP has been temporarily stranded to give China some time and space to promote the construction of a series of free trade area networks such as regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) and Shanghai cooperation organization.

If TPP comes into force, many Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member countries such as Korea, Thailand and Philippines will join in, which will objectively affect the process of RCEP, and also affect China's role in the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area. On the other hand, the high standards of TPP will be more suitable for the development trend of trade and investment in today's and future countries. This has great reference value to China's development of a high standard open economy, and its practical development and problems can provide reference for the construction of China's free trade area.

It is unlikely that TPP will come back to life, but there is no hope.

The Republican Party represented by Trump is the biggest beneficiary of free trade. The plan to abolish TPP will be opposed by the interest groups within the party. Trump can not ignore these factors.

In addition, TPP also focuses on protecting intellectual property rights, environmental and labour rights, government procurement and liberalization of trade in services, all of which are the strengths of the United States.

If it withdraws, the United States will suffer great losses.

Trump, who came from business, pursues realism. Once he finds out where interest is, it is not impossible to quickly change his voice.

Gu Qingliang, Professor of textile economics and management research center, Donghua University,

TPP's previous generations and the world's textile strategy

For China's TPP is not yet born, it will be an interesting thing for the Chinese textile industry. But the more important thing is not to watch the excitement but to see the truth behind the montage and the truth behind it, accurately anticipate the future and respond positively.

TPP is a geopolitical tool.

Obama's biggest political legacy is Asia Pacific rebalancing, and TPP is an important part of the US's return to the Pacific to contain China's chain.

TPP was not launched by the United States, but later it was dominated by the United States.

Obama made it clear that promoting TPP is not to let China dominate the world trade rules; secondly, TPP has played a great role in drawing up some South China Sea countries. Vietnam is the biggest beneficiary country of TPP. In the process of TPP expansion, Vietnam's share in the main member countries is rising, the textile investment and pfer to Vietnam have increased, and economic interests have tied the US's return to the Pacific strategic alliance. Finally, China's textile industry has been impacted by TPP. In the process of TPP expansion, China's market share in its member countries has declined, and the survey shows that the US importers' willingness to purchase China will decline or shift.

In order to make TPP a strategic tool for geopolitics and containment China, its trade standard is essentially an exclusive and meticulous design.

Among them, the rules of origin for spinning and weaving trade (AfterYarn), namely, the production of yarn from the beginning of the yarn in TPP countries, can enjoy the exemption of import tax. Obviously, this is aimed at China with the advantages of the whole industry chain, and has a negative impact on Chinese textile industry.

But the rules of origin, in itself, are anti free trade principles, which impede the development of comparative advantage in all countries, which is also unfavorable to the whole of the US. TPP caters only to the interests of a few textile and garment manufacturers and trade unions, and hurts most consumers, brands, retailers, trade dealers and related practitioners in the United States. It also hurts industries that have direct or indirect trade relations with China, such as aircraft manufacturing.

This explains why both the Conservative Party and the Democratic Party declared their opposition to TPP in the general election, especially Trump, who emphasized that "the United States is the priority".

TPP represents Obama's strategic system of "political correctness" and "Asia Pacific rebalancing".

Therefore, TPP is not a free trade agreement in terms of content and substance.

TPP lacks both the American public opinion and the trend of free trade and inclusive growth.

Post TPP China's textile strategy

If the United States withdraws, no matter how hard Japan and other countries work, TPP has no meaning in form and content.

But for China, it is more necessary to thoroughly study the national strategy and industry development in the post TPP, and deal with it seriously, especially in the textile industry.

1, trade protectionism is the countercurrent of world economic development. Trump's "American priority" obviously will not accept the principles of globalization, nor will he consider the interests of developing and less developed countries. American politics is controlled by interest groups, and trade protectionism is still the countercurrent of the development of world textile and textile. China's textile industry will still be the target of this force, and we must have a clear understanding of this.

2, we must unswervingly promote the "one belt and one way" strategy. "One belt and one road" is not only China, but its peace, synergy, sharing and inclusive development belong to the whole world.

"One belt and one road" has benefited the development of textile industry and trade in less developed countries, and also led to economic recovery in developed countries.

3, China should actively promote the establishment of the free trade area and the world's textile free trade rules.

China's leadership is not "overbearing".

As a big textile country, China has the obligation, responsibility and ability to practice the principle of free trade, and build a new international textile industry order and a new pattern of world textile trade.

It can be expected that after the TPP global countries will adopt more genuine multilateral free trade agreements, China's textile industry will also fight against the wind and waves at the top, and set off a new wave of development.

More interesting reports, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net.