The Increase Of Cotton Export Treasury Will Bring Pressure To Cotton Prices.

In the past month, the international cotton price has been rising at the end of November, and has dropped steadily after entering December.

As time goes on, the increase in the export of national treasury, the strength of the US dollar and the increase of planting area next year will bring pressure to cotton prices.

According to the US Department of agriculture's recent 2017/18 market trend forecast, the US cotton area is expected to grow 10 million 500 thousand acres, up 5% over the same period last year, because cotton prices rose more than competitive crops such as corn and soybeans, which will eventually lead to an increase in export supply next year.

The futures contract of ICE futures rose from nearly 68 cents in early November to 73 cents at the end of November in March.

Since December, prices have been consolidated at 70-72 cents.

Meanwhile, the A index rose from 77 cents to 81 cents and then operated at a price below 80 cents.

China's cotton prices rose steadily, T3128 spot prices rose by 2% in dollar terms, and increased by 3.5% in Renminbi (exchange rate effect).

The spot price trend of S-6 in India was in line with the international cotton price, rising from 72 cents to nearly 75 cents, and then back to 73 cents.

Spot prices in Pakistan rose from 69 cents to 73 cents.

According to the monthly report of the US Department of agriculture in December, the biggest adjustment is global output, from 22 million 486 thousand tons to 22 million 695 thousand tons, an increase of 20.9 million tons.

And cotton production increased by 109 thousand tons and 79 thousand tons respectively.

Global consumption has been cut by 17 thousand tons, and consumption in China and Vietnam has increased. India, the United States and

Consumption reduction.

The global import volume has increased by 21 thousand tons, and the import volume of South Korea and Vietnam has increased.

The global export volume has increased by 26 thousand tons, the export volume of Australia and the United States has increased, and the export volume of West Africa has been reduced.

Global end inventories increased by 184 thousand tons, with most of the growth coming from the US, India, Australia and West Africa.

Although cotton prices will eventually weaken from a fundamental perspective, some positive factors at this stage are

Provide support, including India's monetary policy, resulting in reduced supply of cotton in India and delayed shipment.

At present, the correlation between China and the international market is not high, but the rise in China's cotton prices has brought about an impact on the international market.

With the passage of time, the problem of pportation of Xinjiang cotton will ease sooner or later.

Recently, the Chinese government issued the announcement of the next round of sale of reserve cotton, which will lead to a fall in cotton prices in China.

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Imported yarn is lower than the market price of 200-300 yuan / ton pactions are common, traders confidence from "strong" to "loose" and then to "slide".

Shandong, Zibo, Weifang, Jiangsu Changzhou, Nantong and other places middlemen said that the price of domestic cotton in 2016/17 was generally 15800-16500 yuan / ton (inland and Xinjiang cotton), and the price of domestic yarn increased by 300-500 yuan / ton in half a month. The weaving factories, garment factories and foreign trade companies were difficult to digest. The problem of intestinal obstruction in the whole industrial chain was prominent. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the downstream sectors gradually entered the "four steps" of going to stock, receiving loans, paying loans, paying wages and bonuses. The small order weaving factories with small orders, trading land continued to suspend production and business, and workers were on holiday. The demand for imported yarn, such as India and Pakistan, declined completely (import yarn mainly supplied small and medium-sized weaving enterprises).

A large trading company in Qingdao reflects that the weekly turnover of cotton yarn is about 4-5 cabinets in the first ten days of December, and the C21S and below India and Pakistan yarns are almost impossible to deal with. The C32S and C40S bags of bleached bags dyeing the India Dachang and the brand yarn are relatively normal. Considering that the domestic combed yarn is stabilized and the demand for air spinning is weak, the company is coordinating the India and Vietnam textile mills to postpone the delivery of low count yarn below 21S, and focus on the purchase of JC21S, JC32S and high matching C32S and C40S. It is expected that bulk products will arrive in the middle and late 1 months.

Recently, Foshan, Guangzhou and other places of cotton yarn middlemen, cowboy cloth factory feedback, Pakistan C8S, C10S siro spinning bonded, customs clearance quantity is not much, spot supply is a little nervous, importers of goods began to test the price increase of 100-200 yuan / ton sales.

On the one hand, from mid November to mid December, Pakistan ceased issuing import licenses to India cotton, resulting in a continuous rise in cotton prices in Pakistan. The shortage of raw materials and high prices caused the mills to have to cut production or stop production, and the export capacity of cotton yarn was declining. The contract execution encountered challenges. The shipping and delivery of siro spinning had to be postponed. On the other hand, near the end of the year, some cowboy factories in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other places were anxious to make a single purchase (mostly short, small and fine), striving to recover their loans before the end of January, and worried about importers and traders ahead of the holiday, only to hoard 7-10 days' raw material plan.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.