Zheng Cotton Entered A Phased Callback Cycle With Greater Risk.

In the early November,

As a result, the state reserve inventory is basically depleted, and the replenishment of the warehouse has started gradually, so that domestic textile enterprises have to accept high price new cotton, and the cost of using cotton is much higher than that of national cotton reserves.

In the early days, the enterprises with much more stock were still low in cost and still could get good profits. Many small and medium-sized textile enterprises forced to purchase high priced new cotton began to feel more pressure and their profits shrank sharply.

Customs data show that in November, domestic cotton yarn imports 178 thousand and 800 tons, year-on-year and annulus ratio increased, in sharp contrast with the situation of less imports in September and October.

It can be seen that with the difference between cotton prices inside and outside, the impact of imported yarn on the domestic market will continue to burn again.

In addition, entering the December, most textile enterprises have already stocked a certain stock of raw materials, and the willingness to purchase in the short term has decreased.

Since the end of November, Zheng cotton futures have changed their upward stance and gradually entered the oscillation period of price adjustment. The adjustment interval has been reduced from 16000-16500 yuan / ton to 15700-16000 yuan / ton. The amplitude is basically maintained at three hundred and five hundred points, and the market is in a stalemate. It seems that it is waiting for a new direction.

I believe that before the Spring Festival comes,

Entering the periodic callback cycle is more risky.

In addition, Xinjiang cotton picking has been accelerated and basically completed, and processing capacity has accelerated in December.

As of December 16th, Xinjiang cotton processing capacity exceeded 3 million 500 thousand tons, and the national cotton processing volume has exceeded 4 million tons.

In addition, the northern hemisphere cotton regions such as the United States and India have entered the stage of centralized listing, and domestic supply has shown a very sufficient situation before it was launched in March 2017.

In 2016, the new cotton market went through a relatively slow situation.

First, the weather factors, such as low temperature and hail, led to slow progress of picking cotton in Xinjiang and inland cotton, and then in the stage of centralized cotton listing, Xinjiang's pport capacity was very tense. Train pportation basically gave way to some other materials, and automobile pportation was also hard to find and cost increased substantially, making Xinjiang cotton more slowly.

With the basic depletion of the national cotton reserves, the expected price of the cotton futures has continued to rise for a long time. But from late November to December, the tight pport capacity in the early stage has been gradually relieved, and the pport capacity of the latter market is gradually smooth.

With the global cotton entering the stage of centralized supply, the tension of spinning enterprises will ease significantly in the next 1-2 months.

At the same time, due to the large difference between inside and outside cotton prices, imported yarn is once again a threat to domestic textile enterprises, and near the Spring Festival, domestic textile enterprises desire to purchase has entered a low tide period, and the sales pressure of upstream enterprises is greater.

In addition, most commodities show signs of adjustment and decline. At the end of the year, funds are also facing the possibility of adjustment and rest.

Thanks to various factors, Zheng cotton will probably enter a relatively stable or even weak pattern before the Spring Festival. The industry chain and investors should be cautious of the risk of price fall. The specific fall will depend on the willingness of the upper cotton merchants and the adjustment speed of the funds.

From the point of view of disk technology, in December 14th, the 1705 contract of zhengmian main force dropped sharply after the previous day, closing down the trend line since the low point in September 1st, indicating that the market will end the unilateral rise and enter the adjustment cycle.

Since the highest point of 16910 yuan / ton, the trend of K line has gradually formed a downward triangle form. At present, 15600-15700 yuan / ton has become an important supporting belt, and the conservative estimate price has dropped to 15000-15500 yuan / ton. Whether it is deep down or not is the key.

The trend and whether Zheng cotton futures are down or futures.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.