Before The Spring Festival, Textile Enterprises Will Weaken Their Purchasing Intention. Zheng Cotton Will Maintain A Weak Shock Pattern.

The Fed announced 25 basis points for raising interest rates.

At the same time, the Fed's official resolution announced that it expected to raise interest rates three times in 2017, reiterated that the risks faced by the prospect were broadly balanced, although the rate hike was long and the results were expected, but its effects were still fermenting.

Since the conference, the dollar index has been maintained at a 14 year high, with a high jump of 70 cents in an integer pass; the domestic deleveraging and subsequent monetary funds have been redeemed, and the pressure on liquidity increases further, and the market is threatening.

With the withdrawal of funds from the futures market, domestic commodities continue to explore, Zheng cotton main contract 705 yuan 16230 yuan pressure diving, only 4 trading days fell more than 1000 yuan, the price fell below the 60 day moving average, 15000 yuan / ton integer pass, the lowest price fell to 14820 yuan.

At present, the pport problem in Xinjiang has been alleviated, and the purchasing intention of textile enterprises will be weakened before the Spring Festival. Zheng cotton will maintain a weak shock pattern.

Last week, the US Department of Agriculture issued weekly export sales data. 12.2-12.9 weekly cotton shipments maintained good momentum, with weekly cargo capacity of 49 thousand and 500 tons, an increase of 138% over the same period last year, and the cumulative shipment volume increased by 65.9% over the same period last year.

As of December 8, 2016, the United States had signed a net total of 1 million 810 thousand tons of cotton for 2016/17, including 1 million 717 thousand tons of cotton, 733 thousand tons of cotton, 40.7% of cotton and 48.13% of Pima cotton.

The three consecutive weeks of increase in export sales data is undoubtedly a great confidence in the market, which can be seen from CFTC's position report.

According to the latest fund position report released by CFTC, as of December 13th, there were 117826 more non commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market, an increase of 667 copies compared with the previous week. Recently, the number of non commercial positions in the cotton futures market was increased by more than 1532 copies; the number of commodity index funds was more than 1532, while the number of commodity index funds was more than 64812, with a decrease of 387 pieces as of December 13th.

Speculators increased their net worth of ICE cotton futures to a record high for the fourth consecutive week.

In the early stage of interest conference, the cotton futures contract in March was 72.30 dime / pound high diving, while the rate hike was confirmed. The cotton fell below the 70 cents integer pass support and returned to the 65-70 cent shock interval.

At the same time, the impact of multiple interest rates is still fermenting next year, which will cause great pressure on the period cotton. In the short term, cotton will continue to test the key support of 65 cents.

Due to the tight pport capacity in Xinjiang, and the heavy rain and snow weather in Xinjiang since the beginning of winter this year, it has brought many difficulties to pportation. Since the new cotton came into the market, scarce resources of the Xinjiang cotton pported to the mainland have caused panic buying in the mainland.

Short supply situation directly pushes forward Zheng cotton futures.

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After entering the January, there are two holidays: New Year's day and Spring Festival.

The traditional processing season has basically come to an end, and the purchase and processing of seed cotton is coming to an end. Most of the ginning plants and some textile enterprises will have a holiday from New Year's day until the Spring Festival and gradually resume production. The month long holiday will greatly ease the pportation problem in Xinjiang.

At the same time, textile enterprises do not want to occupy a large amount of funds to purchase raw materials before the Spring Festival. At present, the purchasing intention of hoarding goods has dropped significantly. After the late December, most textile enterprises basically used mining along with mining, which made the domestic cotton market until the supply of cotton was placed at a loose supply stage.

According to customs statistics, China imported 549 million tons of lint in November 2016, an increase of 34% over October, but 35% less than that of last year.

In 2016, 1-11 months, the total import volume was 753 thousand and 100 tons, a decrease of 41% compared with the same period last year.

Due to the import control policy and the policy of reserve cotton rotation, the import volume of cotton in China has been at a low level for nearly six years since 2016 except for September. This part of imported cotton is directly replaced by domestic cotton and downstream cotton yarn.

Due to the strength of the US dollar, the people's Bank of China has lower the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, which has greatly increased the cost of the import cotton yarn settlement.

Take India C32S as an example.

Nearly two days after the meeting, the depreciation of RMB led to a rise of 125 yuan / ton of cotton yarn settlement cost, and the profit of imported cotton yarn quickly dropped.

The decrease in import cotton and the increase in the cost of imported cotton yarn will undoubtedly stimulate domestic cotton consumption and stabilize domestic cotton prices.

To sum up, with the United States, India and other countries

Centrally listed, the world is at a loose supply stage. Before the Spring Festival, Zheng cotton will enter a relatively weak pattern, and the main shock interval will be moved down to 14500-16000 yuan.

After the Fed's rate hike conference, a large amount of capital was withdrawn from the futures market. Only yesterday, the Wenhua commodity index lost 1 billion 930 million yuan, and the acceleration of the departure of the fund made Zheng cotton's decline enlarged.

Although technically, the important support of Zheng Mian 705 contract has been opened after 15600-15800 yuan, the price will be further explored, but the current price has fallen below the cost. At the same time, the increase in consumption also makes the location more risky.

Enterprises that can use cotton demand can choose lower cost lint after comparing the current market price. As a result of the large withdrawal of funds, it may lead to a sharp fall in a short period of time. Therefore, if investors choose to buy warehouse receipts on futures, they must control their positions so as to make capital risks.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.