The Center Of Price Of Cotton Will Move Upward And Throw Into The Weight Of Pressing Prices.

In the context of the lack of market cotton production, the delayed dumping of national cotton reserves directly detonated the market. Insufficient supply of spot markets promoted cotton's straight rise and rise. After that, the reasons for slow growth, limited quantity, difficult warehousing and traders hoarding of cotton stored in the national cotton store provided a continuous driving force for cotton prices.

In addition, in a loose monetary environment, capital continues to flow into the commodity market, which is another reason for the rise in cotton prices.

The cotton price rising stage in September this year is more money driven. After the Mid Autumn Festival, the property market regulation policies have been introduced, the property market has begun to cool down, and the corresponding commodity market is booming. In addition, cotton in the devaluation period of the RMB as a daily necessities has no doubt its natural advantages, although the speed is slowing down, the upward trend of cotton prices is relatively clear.

For the cotton market in 2017, the two conditions that drive up cotton prices still exist.

In 2017 and 2016, the price of cotton will shift upward, but the dumping and storage of domestic cotton has always been the weight to suppress prices, and the slightly loose foreign market will also play a role of inhibition. It is expected that cotton prices will continue to rise next year, but the scope is limited.

Judging from the cotton price index, 13300-18000 yuan / ton will become the main range of cotton price operation in 2017.

At the end of the year, cotton prices rose like rainbow in the cotton market in 2016, a route of 9990 yuan / ton rose to 16975 yuan / ton.

The reasons for the rise of cotton this year can be summed up in two aspects: first, the tight supply of the market, and the two is the promotion of funds.

According to world granary statistics, 2015/16

The total consumption is 7 million 640 thousand tons, the output is 4 million 900 thousand tons, the import volume is 980 thousand tons, and the gap between supply and demand is 1 million 760 thousand tons.

This year, the total volume of dumping and storage of national cotton reserves was 2 million 659 thousand and 200 tons, which effectively compensated for the gap between supply and demand this year.

For 2016/2017, cotton consumption is estimated at 7 million 560 thousand tons, output is 4 million 610 thousand tons, import volume is 900 thousand tons, and the gap between supply and demand is 2 million 50 thousand tons, but the new year will continue to arrange for dumping and storage.

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For the foreign cotton market, the US Department of agriculture (USDA) forecast of production and demand in December shows that 2016/17 has 22 million 695 thousand tons of global cotton output, 24 million 363 thousand tons of consumption and 19 million 409 thousand tons of inventory at the end of the year, of which 18 million 123 thousand tons of cotton output, 16 million 582 thousand tons of consumption and 8 million 991 thousand tons of final inventory are available, except China.

Global inventory consumption has declined for two consecutive years since it hit a new high in 14/15, but in addition to China, the global inventory consumption ratio is basically stable and is expected to increase slightly in 16/17.

As China has a quota system for cotton imports, that is, 1% of the quota within the tariff is 894 thousand tons, and the excess part of the implementation of the sliding tax and basically no quotas, coupled with the reserve policy under the state reserve stock which is still in the high position, so the direct linkage between the domestic market and the international cotton market is weakened, and the global supply of cotton is slightly loose except for China in the new year.

however

Central India and the United States are very variable. The United States pays much attention to crop value comparison, while India's cotton production depends on whether the monsoon rainfall is adequate, and attention should be paid to the substitution effect of China's cotton yarn imports on cotton formation.

But in general, global cotton is still in the out of stock cycle. Although consumption may not increase substantially in the past two years, cotton prices will continue to move upward.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.