The Correct Way To Open Up The Logic Of "Asset Shortage" Is To Follow The Trend.

Since the three quarter, the "asset shortage" has always been an important logic of domestic asset allocation. Especially after the real estate regulation in October, the "capital shortage" driven capital inflow represented by the risk capital raising card and the capital squeeze effect of the property market.

Logic has gradually become the mainstream.

We believe that before the "capital to the real" is not completely landed, the background of "asset shortage" does exist. But for large asset allocation, we need to combine the market operation and the external environment to make a final conclusion. We must understand the market operation in a static "asset shortage" way.

This kind of demand for capital allocation is essentially a trend enhancement. The appeal of low risk preference attributes to the "money making effect" makes it more closely related to the fundamentals.

With the tightening effect triggered by price and interest rate rising, and the current stock cycle driving the recovery of corporate earnings to a close, the rise of the market driven by the "asset shortage" will be more and more difficult to achieve.

From the perspective of capital side, the various types of capital participating in the listing of listed companies are mixed with real estate funds, universal insurance and public funds. Therefore, the study of A share raising behavior actually provides a reference for future rights and interests allocation style.

Since 2015, all 131 companies have been identified by the placards. The ownership structure of the underlying companies is more dispersed, and the proportion of the top ten shareholders is less than 60%, which is more than 80%. Secondly, nearly 80% of the listed companies are below 10 billion yuan, and in addition, we have not found a significant relationship between the company's fundamentals or industry prospects and placards.

But at the same time, we find that there are significant differences between different participants in the issue of placards.

1, price logic cashing period, cycle market harvest season

The price recovery logic has entered the cashing stage. From the fourth quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2017, China's third stock cycle will face reconfirmation of demand.

In the second half of 2016, the short cycle has been revised on schedule. In September, the growth rate of PPI has started to turn over. The finished goods inventory has narrowed to zero boundary year-on-year, and the probability of November will be positive.

But at the same time, we also observed that the price index of raw materials purchasing has risen by 5.7 percentage points to 68.3 in November, and PPI is expected to continue to be repaired.

According to our research conclusion, the upstream price is rising too fast or downstream and conducting counterproductive pressure. The subsequent upstream inventory replenishment will re adjust the supply and demand pattern of the real economy (the active replenishment since July).

This price game mechanism will also have a crowding out effect on the profits of the means of production enterprises. Therefore, we expect that the year-on-year high of corporate profits will appear in December 2016.

In the first quarter of next year, the inventory cycle may face a reconfirmation of demand, and prices will remain high and volatile overall.

The sustainability of performance improvement is doubtful, and the cycle stocks represented by the mining sector are in the harvest period.

Since the second half of this year, with the price fixing guiding the production and repair mechanism to open, and superimposing low inventory assistance, the price of black varieties represented by "double coke" has continued to rise, and the profit growth rate of coal enterprises has been guided to rise, which has also stimulated the rapid rise of mining plate valuation.

From July to November, coking coal futures prices rose by nearly 70%. Shen Wan mining sector valuation increased by 14.6%, and the mining sector increased from 4.29 to 5.80, and the premium rate reached 35.2%, compared with that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.

At present, this year's supply side reform has already reached the expected situation. With the price rising too fast, no matter the intention of policy control, the reverse suppression of the downstream price game and the bottom up of stock, the price logic of the pre determination has been gradually fulfilled, and the sustainability of the future is doubtful.

The subsequent weakening of coal price dynamics will weaken the sustainability of corporate performance improvement, resulting in greater digestion pressure on excessive valuation.

Therefore, we believe that the fourth quarter of the cycle of mining as a representative of the cycle stocks have entered the harvest stage, adjusting the stock exchange and avoidance cycle is the key.

With the price driving the logic of production and repair and the growth of profit growth, we believe that the risk of reconfirmation of inventory cycle demand is increasing. In the future, we may face the stagflation of "high price shocks and falling demand".

Therefore, we are cautiously cautious about the market trend during the one or two quarter of next year, and the corresponding allocation strategy suggests avoidance cycle and growth.

We believe that in the first half of next year, we should turn to banks, food and beverage, medicine, household appliances, building decoration (benefit from infrastructure) and other defensive sectors.

At the same time, we should tap the anti inflation boom to improve individual opportunities in the industry, such as business and trade, light industry papermaking, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and chemical industry.

For the second half of next year, when liquidity margins are easing and steady growth policy space is gradually open, industry configuration can focus on two kinds of opportunities.

First, pay attention to undervalued and high dividend blue chips.

Judging from the valuation level, the Shanghai stock index is still slightly higher than the average level since 2010. Therefore, it is necessary to excavate the undervalued area from the perspective of sub sectors.

We have compared the price to earnings ratio and the dividend rate this year. In general, banks, utilities, household appliances, automobiles, food and beverage, non silver finance, pportation and other industries have a relatively high dividend yield level, while the valuation is located in a reasonable interval.

Second, pay attention to the structural opportunities of growth sector.

Judging from the valuation level (as at December 16th), the valuation of SME boards is still significantly higher than the average level since 2010, and for gem, after a year of adjustment, the current valuation is lower than the average valuation since 2010.

Taking TMT as an example, the valuation level of the media and computer sector has been adjusted below the historical average, and the attractiveness has increased.

In terms of performance, the three quarter net profit growth of the computer and media industry has improved since the second half of 2015 compared with the two quarter.

It is estimated that through further adjustment in the first half of next year, by the second half of next year, with the increase of the margin of the liquidity margin, the gem will benefit from the adjustment or adjustment of the media sector and the fast growing computer industry.

4, theme allocation strategy - value return, stick to it.

One of the important features of the A stock market in the second half of 2016 is the differentiation between the main board and the small and medium creation - the main board is up and the middle and small create the pverse shock, the valuation tends to converge, and the heat of the concept plate goes from the peak of the year to the end of the year.

Under the background of the change of A share's micro market and investor structure, the market shifts from retail and public fund to low income investors.

The era of high volatility, high turnover and retail characteristics (herding) has finally come to an end, and the market has shifted to low volatility, low turnover and slow climb.

On the policy side, financial supervision implements the concept of "supervision by law, strict supervision and comprehensive supervision", and punches heavily on capital management business, attacks on fixed arbitrage and financial deleveraging.

Looking forward to 2017, the central economic work conference has set the "risk prevention" as the keynote, and financial regulation is difficult to relax.

The suppression of asset price bubbles has become a controlling variable for risk prevention. The deleveraging of Finance and real estate has become the two major starting point for next year's policy.

In monetary policy, the Fed's interest rate rises, commodity inflation and inflation rise, and the domestic monetary policy space is suppressed. Liquidity will hardly be strongly supported. Liquidity is an important variable in theme investment.

Against this background, when the theme investment is to avoid the overvalued sector, it should be based on value, turn to defense, and look for the endogenous driving theme.

The reform of state-owned enterprises is the internal demand of China's economy in the pformation period. The comprehensive landing of "1+N" in 2017 and the continuous advance of the reform of mixed ownership will make the reform of state-owned enterprises still become a highlight area. Consumption, as an anti cyclical theme, will become the main driving force of the economy in the long wave recession.

According to our analysis, consumption has crossed the important juncture and is about to usher in a new upgrade. Around the major health, education and other related new consumption is the objective demand. Information security is particularly important in the era of "de globalization". The realization of independent control of information system is an important part of safeguarding national sovereignty.

In addition, block chain is also the product of security appeal.

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