The Expansion Of Asset Bubbles Has Increased The Uncertainty Of The Market Before The Spring Festival.

The global situation is highly volatile and highly uncertain.

Although some of the recent economic indicators in Europe appear to be slightly better, the ECB is "stable" and is not eager to change its monetary policy.

The world economy as a whole is still unable to get rid of its weak growth. Trump's conservative economic policy is, in a sense, an inevitable choice for its own family.

And all of this obviously means more or even greater uncertainty for us.

Under the pattern of long-term accumulation of structural problems in the old development mode, the potential risks of China's economy are not only a steady growth target, but also more importantly, increasingly prominent financial risks can still cope with problems that can not be tackled.

In this case, the RMB exchange rate has been rebounded for several days. Why should we be so happy to forget ourselves?

Although the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has been greatly supported by the stock market before the Spring Festival, it is not reliable to set the bull market expectation on the expectation of RMB appreciation. Otherwise, once the RMB is appreciated, it will be unreliable.

Another reason for the rise of the stock market is that the bull market dream of the stock market is going to be more comfortable. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate for several consecutive days may not be the support of A shares for some public opinion. On the contrary, the uncertainty pressure on the market before the Spring Festival suddenly increased by several points.

This is just like the dollar that has gone too far in the earlier stage, and it needs no rest.

In spite of the need to reduce domestic exchange rate in the beginning of the new year to limit the pressure brought about by the recent concentration of foreign exchange, the overall sacrifice of foreign exchange reserves to maintain exchange rate stability is in fact not worth it.

In the absence of liquidity support, if the short sale of the renminbi is a "negative interest margin" paction, unlike the central bank's launch, the short back will become a support for the rebound in the exchange rate, that's all.

In this regard, there is no need to make too many interpretations.

On the eve of unreliable Trump's coming to power, no one can tell whether a Sino US trade war, which once hung in front of Trump during the election, will not be triggered.

The Federal Reserve meeting, which has just been opened, also said 15 uncertainties about the future economic situation of the United States and the world. Is it necessary for us to wait so hard to think that we can put all the cards on the table? Holding the bottom line of the systemic financial risks does not mean that the central bank really has no intention of being too lenient in the money market, but at the same time weakening the target of economic growth, we should reserve enough space for reform.

Although the trend of US dollar interest rate has been formed, whether it reflects the recovery of demand or reflects the expansion of asset bubbles is a problem that can not be ignored.

If we say that the growth and accumulation of assets in the past few years are more likely to benefit from low interest rates, we will obviously have to avoid the trap of bubbles in the future.

Is this not self-evident?

If the appreciation of the renminbi is only inflation, then not only will the increase in the cost of the enterprises weaken investment and squeeze profit margins, but also, for the vast majority of people who are not rich enough, the inflation killer may be much more erosive for wealth.

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For example, if the rise of share price is not based on the steady growth of the real economy, that is, the substantial increase in the performance of the enterprise, but only the early overdraft of the so-called vague and anticipated value of the so-called author, then it will not only be the wealth of the blind but also the more dangerous bubble trap.

In fact, how long will the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate last? This is also a problem in itself.

The proportion of Sino US trade in the scale of China's foreign trade is changing, and the economic cycle of China and the United States is different.

Not for competition.

It is not necessarily a bad thing to maintain steady economic growth.

Our attitude towards growth targets has been changing. The central economic work conference just concluded will keep steady growth in the first place, but the growth target has been weakened.

Monetary policy still needs to emphasize stability, but the RMB exchange rate may not be appreciated.

In the same way, the short term appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has greatly supported the stock market before the Spring Festival. However, it is not reliable to set the expectation of the bull market on the expectation of RMB appreciation. Otherwise, once the RMB exchange rate is going up and down, then how can the bull market dream of the stock market be so?

I can't eat hot tofu.

Economic pformation is a long process. It is impossible for the stock market to change from bear to cattle.

The change of exchange rate policy is certainly not likely to have any effect on the stock market. However, the development of stock market is not based on the wind. It is more determined by its own rules.

That is to say, under the condition of more and more uncertainty, there must be more and more uncertainties in the direction of the stock market. How can some people say that if the renminbi appreciates, the bull market will become a bull?

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