The Bond Market Is Now In A More Pessimistic Period.

"It is beneficial or beneficial to harm or harm".

At present, the market sentiment is low and wait-and-see sentiment is strong. But we should treat the problem dialectically, and the opportunity to be adjusted is the so-called "loss of profit".

At present, the market return rate, especially interest rate debt, has almost reacted to all negative factors. In the future, in the interaction between economy and policy, there may be changes in the bond market, and investment opportunities emerge.

Considering the situation at home and abroad, these changes may come from the following aspects.

First of all, prudent and neutral monetary policy is still tension.

For example, a glass of water is full, because the tension can highlight the cup surface to form a cambered surface, but it is still a glass of water, not two cups of water.

Robust neutral

A positive and effective fiscal policy is a new combination of policies. For the 17 year's economic situation, we need to adapt to the economic situation. Monetary policy needs appropriate tension to deal with it.

In the process of implementation, a positive and effective fiscal policy needs moderate monetary policy coordination.

Monetary policy needs tension and flexibility to prevent the implementation of fiscal policy.

Secondly, the renminbi.

In the past 17 years, it is more likely to go flat.

The anticipation of the pre market is too pessimistic and there is a possibility that the repair is expected.

First, the yuan does not have the basis of a significant depreciation, China's foreign exchange reserves of 3 trillion US dollars, and its trade surplus of GDP4.5%.

Second, a strong dollar is not conducive to the Trump administration's policy plan for the return of manufacturing to the United States.

Third, the Sino US trade war can not be struck. Now China and the United States are losing their relations.

Finally, in 2017, the turbulent year in Europe, the United Kingdom started to face off the European and multinational elections, the right-wing forces rose and populism returned, and the "Black Swans" had frequent risks.

Once Europe breaks out "Black Swans", the market will be more worried about the disintegration of the euro area in the next few years, and the euro will not escape the fate of devaluation. When global risk preferences are bound to fall, the trend of risk-free assets will be favorable.

In the first quarter, the bond market will continue to maintain a weak adjustment trend. In the two or three quarter, as long as there are positive changes in any of the above three aspects, the bond market will usher in a better position.

This year, the possibility of playing a beautiful defensive counterattack is very great.

Therefore, at present, we should strengthen our faith, defend well and wait for the turnaround to come.

The bond market has been continuously adjusted since late October last year, and the market sentiment has gradually turned from pessimism to pessimism. Now the market is in a more pessimistic period, with strong wait-and-see sentiment.

The main reasons leading to the market's overall prudence are as follows: first, CPI center uplift; late oil price has a further risk of CPI; second, the central policy set the tone to "prevent risks and control leverage", and monetary policy is in fact stable; third, the central bank oversees the shadow banking business, or leads to the growth of the outsourcing scale; fourth, the Fed raises interest rates to push up the US dollar index, thereby pushing up the depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar, indirectly leading to tighter domestic liquidity.

We predict that CPI will be in the vicinity of 2.3% in the year of 2017. Combined with the economic fundamentals, it is estimated that the yield of the 10 year treasury bonds in 2017 will be between 3.2% and 3.3%, so the pre interest rate debt has basically been adjusted.

In terms of credit debt, as the market adjusted credit spreads widened significantly, the credit spreads are still significantly lower than the historical average, and the interest protection is still relatively insufficient, and the investment value has not yet appeared.

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