The Stock Market Has Long Been Short Of Gold Under Regulatory And Policy Dragging.

Judging from the global market, the black line's decline and the poor performance of China's stock market have resulted in this week's major asset performance.

(1) from the global fundamental level, US economic data continue to show strong performance.

This week, the US new home sales rose 5.2% in November, and the property market in the Midwest hit the biggest increase since October 2012.

However, relative inflation is not as good as expected. In December 23rd, the US core PCE price index released in November was lower than the growth rate forecast. The economy maintained a relatively fast growth, while the relative inflation expectations dropped slightly, while the stock market and bond market were favorable, and the global bond market stabilized and rebounded.

(2) from the domestic fundamentals, the domestic production restriction policy continues to exert an impact on industrial production, and the domestic blast furnace operating rate has declined.

Meanwhile, real estate pactions continued to slow down.

As for the support for the bond market, the black line also fell.

But at the same time, domestic automobile consumption is still strong, and the L inflection point of domestic economy has passed, and the growth has not yet failed.

(3) from the perspective of China's policy, this week's panic on the fundamentals and policies of the bond market is relatively eased, and the yield of treasury bonds is relatively downward under the catalysis of policy and funds.

from

From the point of view, early deleveraging is the main factor leading to the callback of the bond market. Under the continuous tension of the capital interest rate, the central bank reflects the intention of relative care for the bond market and drives the sentiment of the bond market to pick up quickly.

(4) from the perspective of the performance of China's capital market, the price of black line has come down after the relatively low demand season.

Meanwhile, the bad mood of the bond market was released.

Warmer.

Looking ahead:

(1) the bond market has a concussion stage.

In the short term, the bond market is no longer the overall bad interest in 10-11 months. At that time, the fundamentals, capital, policy and overseas factors were all bad, but the cost of the medium and long-term banks showed a marked downward trend. At the same time, although regulators had a clear attitude towards the long-term deregulation of the bond market, the intention of the short-term regulators to maintain stability was obvious, and the bond market and the policy surface were intertwined.

But we need to note that in the long run, with the economic fundamentals getting warmer and the upward trend of inflation, and the "tight supervision and tight currency" after the bond market yields down or even re leverage, the bond market will still face the long-term adjustment pressure. Compared with 2013, we do not think that this big bear will have a big bull after that. We must guard against the trap of falling too fast.

(2) the stock market has been dragged down by regulatory and bond markets, and the trend of healthy cattle has not changed.

Similar to the bond market, it is also affected by the strengthening of insurance regulation by deleveraging and the upward interest rate of funds. The main logic of the recent stock market is not a realistic fundamental factor. It is more worrying about the financial system's deleveraging and the upward cost of capital. It is recalled that the adjustment can be repaired in the second half of 2013.

If the future economy can maintain the second half of the L and further improve corporate profits, the trend of healthy bull market will not change.

(3) the dark era of gold will continue. It is possible to fall below US $1000 in 2017.

Since July 2016, we have stressed the logic of the "golden pit". With the increase of the Federal Reserve's interest rate raising path, the monetary policy of the European Central Bank has been relaxed. The division of monetary policy in Europe and the United States will lead to a sustained strength of the US dollar. At the same time, the global risk aversion is ebbing. The US real interest rate rises and all factors are negative gold.

US side: GDP is higher than expected in the three quarter.

In the three quarter of the United States, the GDP increased from 3.2% to 3.5%, with a forecast of 3.3%.

The US GDP deflator in the three quarter ended at 1.4%, 1.4% and 1.4%.

The US initial value of durable goods orders shrank by 4.6% in November, the biggest decline since August 2014, and still better than the 4.8% contraction.

This shows that investment in enterprises has begun to bottom up.

The election has increased business sentiment and boosted sales of durable goods.

In November, the US personal income has not seen growth for the first time in 9 months, and the individual income and expenditure data are generally not as good as expected. The growth rate is the lowest since February of this year, which has dragged down the growth of consumer spending contributing to the 2/3 economic activities of the United States. Specifically, the monthly income of people in November has been flat, with an expected increase of 0.3%, a 0.6% increase in the previous value and a 0.5% rise in the revised value.

Personal spending rose by 0.2%, an increase of 0.4%, an increase of 0.3% in the previous value, and an increase of 0.4% in the revised value.

In November, the PCE price index was flat, not as expected.

Core PCE (personal consumption expenditure) price index monthly rate is 0%, is expected to be 0.1%, the former value is 0.1%; in November, the core PCE price index is 1.6%, the data is less than expected and the previous value of 1.7%; the US November personal expenditure monthly rate is 0.2%, is expected to be 0.3%, the former value is 0.3%.

In December 17th, the number of jobless claims in the United States in early December 17th was 275 thousand, a record high since June, with an expected value of 254 thousand.

In December 10th, the number of unemployed persons was 2 million 36 thousand, 2 million 10 thousand, and the former value was revised from 2 million 18 thousand to 2 million 21 thousand.

The number of unemployed Jin people who applied for the first time in the United States rose to its highest level since June. It has been below the threshold of 300 thousand for the ninety-fourth consecutive week, the longest cycle since 1970, indicating that the US employment market is very strong, in or near full employment.

In November, the monthly sales rate of new housing sales in the United States increased by 5.2% after the seasonally adjusted quarter, and the total number of annualized units reached 592 thousand units, reaching a second high level since the beginning of 2008.

In 1-11 months, the average monthly sales of new housing sales in the United States was 563 thousand units, an increase of 12.6% over the same period last year.

The median sale price for new homes in November was $305400, up from $302700 in October, but still below $317 thousand in the same period last year.

In December, University of Michigan's consumer confidence index was revised to 98.2, a 12 year high.

The original value of the index was 98.

Market performance: three major U.S. stock indexes rose this week.

The Dow Jones industrial average, at 19933.81 points, rose 0.46% this week, rising seven weeks, the longest weekly increase in two years.

The S & P 500 index reported 2263.79 points, rising 0.25% this week.

The Nasdaq composite index reported 5462.69 points, rising 0.47% this week.

Asian side: the Bank of Japan maintains its policy interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, maintains a 10 year treasury bond yield of 0%, and maintains the annual growth rate of Japanese yen holdings of 80 trillion yen, which is in line with market expectations.

The decision of the Bank of Japan to maintain the target of yield control by 7-2 of the voting percentage remains unchanged, and it will provide 115013 billion yen to control the spot rate of treasury bonds.

The central bank believes that Japan's economy will continue to moderate recovery and may turn to moderate expansion. Industrial output has increased, private consumption has been resilient and exports have also increased.

The risks facing Japan's future include the development of the US economy and the influence of the US monetary policy on the global market, and will continue to maintain expansionary monetary policy until inflation exceeds 2%.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.