Analysis Of Supply And Demand Situation Of Cotton Market At Home And Abroad

In November, the ISM of the US Manufacturing Management Association (PMI) was 53.2, higher than expected, the biggest increase since June.

In the same period, the final value of PMI in the US Markit manufacturing industry was 54.1, which was also higher than expected, of which the new order index was the highest since March 2015.

The US consumer confidence index of University of Michigan in December climbed to 98, up from 93.8 and expected at the end of November, the highest since January 2015.

Employment in the EU and the euro area has been rising but not as expected.

Eurozone data show that in the third quarter of this year, the euro area and the EU employment grew by 0.2% compared to the same period. In the third quarter of this year, the number of EU employment increased by 1.1%, while the number of eurozone employment increased by 1.2% over the same period last year.

The failure of the referendum held in Italy on the amendment of the constitution triggered the market's concern about the risk of Italy's banking and European economic risks.

According to the Bank of Japan report, the index of large manufacturing boom in December increased significantly, the highest level since December 2015.

In November, the main domestic economic data continued to pick up, but the recovery was still weak.

Us: US cotton export contract finished 66%.

According to the US Department of agriculture, as of December 1st, the US cotton net contract volume reached 1 million 738 thousand tons in 2016/17, 66% of the USDA export forecast, 54% higher than the same period last year, an increase of 644 thousand and 300 tons, an increase of 59%.

US cotton shipments totaled 679 thousand and 500 tons, completing 26% of USDA export forecasts, up 21% from the same period last year, an increase of 258 thousand and 500 tons, an increase of 61% over the same period last year.

To complete the export forecast of USDA, the average volume and volume of US cotton weekly need to reach 56 thousand tons and 25 thousand and 800 tons in the rest of the year.

Pakistan: cotton production is lower than expected.

At the beginning of this year, the Federal Agriculture Council of Pakistan estimated that the area of cotton planting was 3 million 9 thousand hectares and the output was 14 million 101 thousand packages (2 million 400 thousand tons).

However, because cotton growers worry that cotton prices will continue to fall, the actual cotton planting area is not up to expectations.

According to the news of Pakistan cotton evaluation committee, because of the fall in domestic cotton prices and unfavorable rainfall in cotton producing areas, cotton production in Pakistan is much lower than expected this year.

At the same time, problems such as pests, high temperature and leaf curl are still bothering cotton production. The total output of cotton is estimated to be only 1 million 790 thousand tons.

Cotton sales in 2016/17 were nearly 1/4.

According to the report of Brazil's domestic research institutes, cotton prices in Brazil rose slightly in the first half of November, stabilizing in the middle of the month and resuming upward trend in the second half of the month.

11 in the second half of the month, Brazil ginning factory did not intend to continue purchasing new cotton, but accelerated the shipment in 2017 and the spot market gradually became active.

According to statistics from Brazil, as of the end of November, cotton sales in Brazil in 2015/16 had been 67.9%, of which 49.2% were sold in the domestic market and 50.8% exported.

According to Brazil's forecast, cotton production in Brazil is expected to be 1 million 400 thousand tons in 2016/17, and 23.1% has been sold ahead of schedule, of which 24.5% is sold at home and 75.5% exported.

Australia: cotton production in 2016/17 is beyond imagination.

According to the latest report of the Australian Bureau of agricultural resources and Economic Research (ABARE), Australia's cotton growing area in 2016/17 increased by more than expected. The total output of cotton is expected to reach 1 million 30 thousand tons, an increase of 150 thousand tons over the previous forecast, a record high of second, an increase of 64% over the previous year.

ABARE's latest forecasts outnumber all other agencies including the US Department of agriculture.

According to the latest report, due to adequate rainfall and high expected yield of cotton farmers, the area of Australia's cotton planting has been increased to 520 thousand hectares, nearly doubled over the same period last year, especially the area of non irrigated farmland has increased significantly.

According to the report, the Australian sorghum area has decreased by 31% this year as a result of the increase in cotton income, which has reached a new low of nearly 471 thousand years in the past 471 thousand years. The output is expected to drop to 1 million 440 thousand tons, or 29%.

Zimbabwe: cotton output will increase substantially.

According to foreign reports, due to the government's support for cotton farmers free of charge, cotton production in Zimbabwe is expected to grow more than four times in 2016/17, reaching 150 thousand tons.

In 2015/16, the drought in Zimbabwe led to a significant decline in yield per unit area, and cotton production was only 30 thousand tons, the lowest level in nearly twenty years.

According to the plan of the government of Zimbabwe, the state will provide production inputs for cotton farmers free of charge, covering 300 thousand hectares of cotton fields, amounting to 43 million US dollars.

Coupled with the prospect of increased rainfall in the future, cotton farmers' enthusiasm for planting has been greatly improved.

Cotton planting area increased by 2.2% over the same period.

The national cotton market monitoring system cotton planting intention survey shows that in 2017, China's cotton planting area was 44 million 805 thousand mu, an increase of 960 thousand mu, an increase of 2.2%.

According to the survey, the cotton planting area in the Yellow River basin is 8 million 330 thousand mu, an increase of 0.1% over the same period last year.

The cotton planting area in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is about 5 million 280 thousand mu, down 8.1% from the same period last year.

The cotton planting area in northwest inland cotton area is 30 million 707 thousand mu, an increase of 4.9% over the same period last year.

Xinjiang intends to grow cotton area of 30 million 349 thousand mu, an increase of 4.5% over the same period last year.

New cotton picking process is coming to an end.

As of December 16th, the national processing rate was 92%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points over the same period, of which the processing rate of Xinjiang was 93.9%, and the national sales rate was 36.5%, up 1.4 percentage points over the same period, of which the sales rate of Xinjiang was 35.1%.

According to the estimated cotton output of 4 million 877 thousand tons (the national cotton market monitoring system forecast in November 2016), as of December 16th, the national total sales of seed cotton and cotton lint 4 million 396 thousand tons, down 252 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, including 3 million 782 thousand tons of cotton seed sold in Xinjiang, 4 million 42 thousand tons of cotton linen, an increase of 34 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, of which 3 million 553 thousand tons of lint cotton were processed in Xinjiang, 1 million 605 thousand tons of cotton lint sold, and 20 thousand tons of cotton wool sold in the same period.

In 2016, the new system of cotton inspection was 3 million 370 thousand tons.

As of December 19, 2016, there were 932 cotton processing enterprises in the whole year of 2016 cotton processing cotton according to the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan, and the notarization test was carried out. The inspection volume reached 3 million 370 thousand tons, of which 755 cotton processing enterprises in Xinjiang were certified notarized up to 3 million 280 thousand tons, and 177 processing enterprises in the mainland were notarized for 87 thousand and 246 tons.

12 in the middle of the month, the price of domestic grade 3128 cotton is 15300-15500 yuan / ton, which is better than 15800 yuan / ton. In fact, the cotton mill and cotton trade association made a profit of 100-200 yuan / ton, Xinjiang cotton was generally over 16000 yuan / ton, and the turnover was not large.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.